Saturday, April 14, 2012

KALYANI FORGE LTD - BUY




Auto industry is one of the fastest growing sector in India.Many foreign companies considering India as a main market as well as a production hub for their international operations.Auto component industry is also moving in tandem .Pune based Kalyani Forge is a well managed company manufacturing forged components for auto industry. It is manufacturing high quality close tolerance die forgings in a wide range from 0.1kg to10kgs.Company is making Engine Parts,Transmission parts, Steering Parts..etc Almost all major auto producers are in the customer list of Kalyani forge which includes Ashok Leyland,Tata Motors,M&M,TVS Motor Company,Hero Motocorp..etc.Company also supplying its products to international  customers like  RENAULT SAS, LOMBARDINI S.R.L, VCST DE MEXICO..etc .In recent times company is moving out of low margin products and concentrating in niche high margin forgings segment.Effect of this shift is visible in recent financial performance.Company is also planning to reduce its debt.For the nine month ended December 2011,Company posted a sales of Rs.206 Cr v/s Rs.168 Cr and a net profit of Rs.11.5 Cr v/s Rs.5 Cr .For the full year March 2012, company is expected to post an EPS above Rs.42 (last year Rs.18). Considering company’s future plans and the vast opportunity available in this segment ,trading at a P/E multiple of just 4 on expected full year EPS ,Kalyani forge is a good BUY at CMP of Rs.177/-. Stock is trading both in NSE and BSE.
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29 comments:

  1. PeterApril 14, 2012 at 10:16 AM

    Very well done. Keep sharing such excellent articles.
    Cheap Leyland For Sale

    ReplyDelete
  2. VALUEPICKApril 14, 2012 at 11:30 AM

    Dear Friend

    Thanks for your kind words.I believe ,whenever we share our knowledge with others that will only improve.From the opinion of our readers we can see the things from different angle,also get some god's grace.:)

    ReplyDelete
  3. AnonymousApril 14, 2012 at 11:58 AM

    hello investement banker i also really feel same ur great .... and i want to knoe one think its beeter to enter in schneider in this levels or wait for sometime

    thanks

    ReplyDelete
  4. AnonymousApril 14, 2012 at 12:01 PM

    Hi Valune Pick sir,

    I have observed your recommendations as soon published , then later immediately these postings will come in many paid sites, so this scrip is not going to catch at 177 CMP. Most investors will try to buy and automatically demad will start. This price is zooming from monday onwards. so i am very eager to catch this scrip, so can we buy on market price what ever % zoom(say 5% or +5% , do we recommend to buy still).
    Many thanks for your valuble suggestions on good scrips with out expecting any thing from readers.

    looking for your feedback,
    M Phani

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. VALUEPICKApril 14, 2012 at 12:55 PM

      Dear Phani

      I am helpless in the matter you have mentioned ,and I have no control in it.

      Thanks

      Delete
  5. akhiApril 14, 2012 at 12:06 PM

    your efforts are seriously speechless VP.. super like the above comment by Mahesh

    ReplyDelete
  6. akhiApril 14, 2012 at 12:08 PM

    dear sir..
    shud can i enter into granules ind and fairfield atlas at cmp or shud i wait for little correction..

    ReplyDelete
  7. AnonymousApril 14, 2012 at 12:39 PM

    Dear Valuepick,

    Is it a buy for Kaveri seed or Advanta at Current market price ? Holding period 3-5 years.

    Raj

    ReplyDelete
  8. VALUEPICKApril 14, 2012 at 1:07 PM

    Really I wonder why all my friends are not buying at the time of recommendation or a price near to it .All are asking whether it is a BUY after the recommended scrip moved more than 25-50 % Take all the above cases Kaveri Seed,Advanta,Granules,Fairfield Atlas,Schneider Electric which moved sharply now.My recommendations are for an average risk taker if otherwise specified .So buying after substantial rise is always depends on your risk profile.Moreover I am just bringing some ideas for your consideration which I believes some value in it .Please do some homework and never follow my words blindly.

    ReplyDelete
  9. AnonymousApril 15, 2012 at 2:42 PM

    Do you see any conflict of interest between Bharat Forge and Kalyani Forge? Dont they belong
    to the same group?

    ReplyDelete
  10. AnonymousApril 15, 2012 at 4:15 PM

    thanks for your comments sir

    ReplyDelete
  11. VALUEPICKApril 15, 2012 at 5:08 PM

    No conflicts of interest products are different size.

    ReplyDelete
  12. AnonymousApril 16, 2012 at 1:40 AM

    Dear Valueji,
    It is a good pick.
    But the volume traded is very low.
    What is your view on this?

    Regards,
    Neeraj Sharma.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. VALUEPICKApril 16, 2012 at 5:39 AM

      Dear Neeraj

      As you are aware the total equity of the company is just 3.63 Cr and out of this 59% with promoters and another 22 %with big investors(holding more than 1%).So normally volume will be low .Since my recommendations are not meant for trading and only for investment , i don't think volume is the most important factor.

      Delete
  13. AnonymousApril 16, 2012 at 3:22 AM

    Hi Sir,

    I have recently started to read ur blog on regular basis. Looking at your recommendations it appears that your recommendations appears very information and it is helping to make more risk less investment.Please keep up the good work
    Thank you
    Anand

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. VALUEPICKApril 16, 2012 at 5:39 AM

      Thanks Anand

      Delete
    2. shanidApril 16, 2012 at 3:26 PM

      Sir,

      Pls tell me the future prospects of BLISS GVS PHARMA...
      BLISS is into making of anti malarial drugs and suppositories.
      Pharma being a potential sector,whether this one is a is a potential multibagger for next 5 - 7 years....

      Give me your valuable suggestions.

      Rz,
      Shanid.V.H

      Delete
    3. VALUEPICKApril 16, 2012 at 7:55 PM

      Commented more than once about this company,pls search

      Delete
  14. AnonymousApril 16, 2012 at 6:12 PM

    Dear V P sir,
    It is anticipated that today Kalyano Forge is going to be at higher circuit limt and it has happened by touching +5% i.e 185.15 from prev closing 177/-. I think after your posting many sites has repeated ur suggestion and demand has created .

    when is the Q4 results coming out ? Pls suggest any update on the results,

    regards,

    Prabhu

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. VALUEPICKApril 16, 2012 at 7:55 PM

      This time it is full year audited result , time is available till May 31

      Delete
  15. jitendraApril 16, 2012 at 9:06 PM

    can we invest in ptc financial ..ipo price 26 -28 ...result good ..can buy or not

    ReplyDelete
  16. sunnyApril 17, 2012 at 1:00 PM

    Sir I have bought 850 shares of schneider @ 75 can I hold it for some time, pls reply

    ReplyDelete
  17. AnonymousApril 17, 2012 at 8:54 PM

    VP Sir,
    In recent trade sessions, Infosys dropped (crashed )down by 13% during Q4 results declaration. Can this be buying stock at this levels of CMP? Could you please suggest on Infosys scrip future and growth for the investment? Do you think this is an oppartunity to enter?

    thanks and regards,

    M Phani..

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. VALUEPICKApril 18, 2012 at 5:36 AM

      Dear Phani

      Normally I am not tracking large cos like Infy,many reports and comments about such cos are easily available in the street.

      Delete
  18. sunnyApril 17, 2012 at 10:06 PM

    thanks VP

    ReplyDelete
  19. Rajesh ParvathiniApril 18, 2012 at 11:14 AM

    VP Sir,

    Thanks for your valuable advice.

    I am just wondering what is a reasonable expectation from stock market in long run (10-15 years)? Is expectation of 20% annual rate of return in 15 year period unreasonable?

    Or if I may ask, what is rate of return of your portfolio in your inevestment career.

    I know you have expertise of of savvy investor and your returns will be much more than a normal investor. But want to know a reasonable expectation for my investments.

    Will be much obliged if you can give your inputs.

    Thanks,
    Rajesh

    ReplyDelete
  20. CGNovember 21, 2012 at 2:23 AM

    This stock is now at 171!
    dear Value Pick ji, whats your opinion now ?

    ReplyDelete