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Let us start this new year with a prayer for a good 2014 .Last year SEBI play the spoilsport by the introduction of Periodic Call Auction .This time,by god’s grace ,they realized the drawbacks of this mechanism and already declared many relaxations which is expected to bring lot of relief to small and mid cap investors going forward .
Caution :
Contents of this posting mainly based on informations
sourced from publicly available documents,data collection and verification through private
sources and certain assumptions.Due to some practical difficulties I could not verify the authenticity of few informations provided
here ,hence no guarantee for its accuracy and prone to higher level of risk. But, to the best of my knowledge , the given informations are correct. Before
acting on this recommendation ,do own home work and take decision only
thereafter.
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Let us start this new year with a prayer for a good 2014 .Last year SEBI play the spoilsport by the introduction of Periodic Call Auction .This time,by god’s grace ,they realized the drawbacks of this mechanism and already declared many relaxations which is expected to bring lot of relief to small and mid cap investors going forward .
Pharma and IT were the out performers in2013.Since , political uncertainty is still
looming,investment in these sectors are still relevant.Among the pharma pack ,Ajanta
Pharma was the biggest gainer in last year.It out performed all biggies with a
wide margin. But if we take the top selling drugs in the
country it is hard to find any of the products by this company.Then
what is the secret of this out performance ?.I believe it is only because of
the sterling performance of its ‘Kamagra ‘ brand in overseas markets. This
brand gained a sizable market share in Male Erectile Dysfunction segment along
with the VIAGRA brand of Pfizer.Frankly
speaking I am not aware about the complexities of manufacturing this product (
Sildenafil Citrate) ,but it is a fact
that only a handful companies from the listed space making this product , even this segment is growing at a fast pace with good margin.
My search to find out another company active in this segment from mid cap space ends in a
small Chennai based company named Caplin Point Laboratories. Even though this company not specifically claiming as a
producer of this product, based on the
available information ,this is one of the largest exporter of the generic of
Sildenafil Citrate from India . Company supplying large quantity to Latin American and African Countries where product registration
is enough to sell medicines and regulatory requirements are not tough and also a preferred supplier for online drug
stores .If you
are ready to spend few hours in internet with some academic interest ,you can
easily gather enough proof for company’s supply of Sildenafil Citrate through these channels . There may
be some solid reasons for the non
disclosure of this fact by the company and I believe they will disclose it once
they get a USFDA approval for their new plant which is nearing completion.
Another interesting fact about this company is - it is a debt free company and getting money
in advance for supplying medicines from its distributors ! .Have you ever
heared about such a business model in case of a small pharma company in India ?.More than that ,company claiming that the
funding of Rs.75 crore for the new plant is coming from such advances and
internal accruals .Since there is no proof for its manufacturing of any
critical life saving medicines ,I believe
,advance payment is only because of the supply of sildenafil cytrate
which is in high demand from suppliers to online stores. Apart from this
product ,company also exporting many other products to countries like Guinea, Guatemala, Angola, Mali ..etc .Company selling such products under its own
brand name in these countries .(OTC Product Advertisement HERE ).
On the financial front ,company is growing steadily in past few years .Its top line improved from Rs.60 Cr to Rs.122 Cr and net profit galloped from Rs.3 Cr to 14 Cr in last four years.Management of company rewarding share holders proportionately in these years which distributed a dividend of 25 % in latest financial year. Company is now going through a massive capacity expansion program .As part of this ,company is in the process of setting up a state of the art injectable plant which will cater to highly regulated markets like USA , EU ..etc .It started construction in 2012 and and planning to complete it in three phases .First phase of this plant is expected to start trial run in this month itself .This facility is mainly for sterile injectables and prefilled syringes .There is severe shortage for sterile injectable facilities across the world and big MNC’ pharma players are in a hunt for acquiring quality assets in this segment.Mylan’s recent buyout of Agila division of Strides Arcolab at a whopping valuation is an indication for the premium valuation for Sterile injectable facilities worldwide . Pre-filled syringes is relatively a new concept which is gaining acceptance and potential is very high. Company claiming they have already entered in some agreements with Brazil based firms to distribute products from this facility . This may be a temporary arrangement till the company get the permissions of USFDA and UKMHRA for this facility .Caplin point also expanding its existing manufacturing unit at Puducherry by adding facilities to produce Suppositories, Soft gelatin capsule and Penems.This is also expected to to start production in the second half of this FY. Company already recorded a sales of Rs.40 cr and a net profit of Rs.4 Cr in the first quarter ended in September ( Company's year ends in June ) ,this figure is even after deducting a forex loss of Rs.4.6 cr.
CLICK ON THE IMAGE FOR A BETTER VIEW
On the financial front ,company is growing steadily in past few years .Its top line improved from Rs.60 Cr to Rs.122 Cr and net profit galloped from Rs.3 Cr to 14 Cr in last four years.Management of company rewarding share holders proportionately in these years which distributed a dividend of 25 % in latest financial year. Company is now going through a massive capacity expansion program .As part of this ,company is in the process of setting up a state of the art injectable plant which will cater to highly regulated markets like USA , EU ..etc .It started construction in 2012 and and planning to complete it in three phases .First phase of this plant is expected to start trial run in this month itself .This facility is mainly for sterile injectables and prefilled syringes .There is severe shortage for sterile injectable facilities across the world and big MNC’ pharma players are in a hunt for acquiring quality assets in this segment.Mylan’s recent buyout of Agila division of Strides Arcolab at a whopping valuation is an indication for the premium valuation for Sterile injectable facilities worldwide . Pre-filled syringes is relatively a new concept which is gaining acceptance and potential is very high. Company claiming they have already entered in some agreements with Brazil based firms to distribute products from this facility . This may be a temporary arrangement till the company get the permissions of USFDA and UKMHRA for this facility .Caplin point also expanding its existing manufacturing unit at Puducherry by adding facilities to produce Suppositories, Soft gelatin capsule and Penems.This is also expected to to start production in the second half of this FY. Company already recorded a sales of Rs.40 cr and a net profit of Rs.4 Cr in the first quarter ended in September ( Company's year ends in June ) ,this figure is even after deducting a forex loss of Rs.4.6 cr.
CLICK ON THE IMAGE FOR A BETTER VIEW
Company’s balance sheet is virtually debt free and
now it expanding production capacity utilising funds at cheap cost .Company
expecting a contribution of Rs.300-400 Cr from this facility when it completely
operational.Even if the company scheduled to start operations from final phase (phase 3) of
this facility by September 2014 ,it may delay by 6 month or so.Even then
company can report respectable numbers with productions from phase 1 itself.
In pharma sector ,different companies are following different business
models.Some of them are unique in their products developed by own R&D like
Biocon..etc ,some of them are unique in production capacity which aims mass
production to reduce per unit cost ,like Granules India .In the case of Caplin
Point, uniqueness is in its well knitted marketing network across many under penetrated Latin American and African countries.Unlike many other pharma
countries which are exporting products to bulk distributors there ,Caplin point
established their own offices in these countries and selling of medicines controlled by their own offices located
there.This strategy helping the company to earn higher margins and also to get
a clear idea about the changing demand scenarios in that countries.
In nut shell let us summarise the reasoning for a positive view on
this company as below
1)
Company
is virtually debt free
2)
Promoters
accepting their faults happened in
the past and ready to change
3)
Consistently
growing in their second innings,turned to a profit of Rs.14 Cr from a loss of
Rs.2 Cr in last 5 years.
4)
No
hesitation to reward share holders ,increased dividend from 10 % to 25 % in
last four years.
5)
Well
established marketing network in Latin American and African countries with own
offices and infrastructure in these countries.
6)
Supplying
‘products in need’ ,and getting advance payment for supply ,really an interesting business model.
7)
Massive
capacity expansion without debt burden ( As per management estimates full
capacity utilisation will generate an income up to Rs.400 Cr)
8)
First
phase of new plant is ready and trail
run will start start by this month
end itself.
9)
Already
established marketing arrangements for part of the products from the new plant.
10)
Higher
promoter holding ,more than 57 % + 10.38 % held by relatives of promoters under non promoter category
11)
A
well accepted supplier of the generic version of Sildenafil citrate to many
overseas countries and online drug stores .
If the company can secure approvals from USFDA and other overseas
authorities in time,this stock will turn out as a dark horse and a re-rating
like the one happened in Ajanta Pharma is a possibility .Even if there is any
delay in approvals, it can still improve its performance with the export of
products to other countries through existing channels though the margin may be
bit lower .Even in that case one can expect reasonable appreciation from the
current level. Commissioning of its new plant will be a landmark in the history of company which will re-write the magnitude of the operations of Caplin Point .One can buy it at CMP Rs.86
Stock listed only in BSE with code 524742
Sir,
ReplyDeletethis company was involved in scam in past where there name came up as selling fake drugs.
The promoter name came up as defaulter and was on interpol list.
Any view on that?
Dear Ashish
DeleteThanks for raising this point which gives an opportunity to explain the major factor affected its valuation in the past :
I am aware about the mentioned facts , verified and satisfied with the outcomes .As a point to note,as far as my understanding any medicines selling in USA will be termed as 'FAKE ' or spurious if it is produced by a non FDA approved facility and even if it is available in US only through smuggling without the consent of the original producer.
On the second point
It is a past story during 1994-2000 which ends in an escape of main promoter to Angola a country in Southern Africa due to this debt issues .Later this issue settled and he came back and started his second innings.I think ,because of the lessons learned from past experience he now keeping his company as a debt free one. I believe ,accepting past mistakes openly and showing willingness to correct it and not repeat the same mistake again is a positive quality .
Sir, thanks for the excellent pick.
ReplyDeleteWhat do you think about Kitex Garments?
Not a bad one.
Deletereally appreciate your info on caplin. Kindly provide your view on orient paper .
ReplyDeleteNot tracking the stock
DeleteVery good company..... I m holding since last 6 years.... Regularly paying dividend....
ReplyDeletehope this gets posted.....can u also comment on astec lifescience
ReplyDeleteAlready recommended ,still no change in opinion
DeleteDear sir may I consider this as 2014 multibegger like marksans pharma
ReplyDeleteThank you
Dear Sir,
ReplyDeleteAwesome article on Caplin. Sir i wanted to know about JHS Svendgaard , Jai balaji, jenburt pharmac and polaris financial services. Are these small caps worth investing for. Will they be multibagger like marksans pharma
Please advise..
Thanks for the excellent pick :)
ReplyDeleteWhats your view on LUMAX AUTO TECHNOLOGIES at the cmp of 105 ?
Respected Sir,
ReplyDeleteHappy new year.I just hope all the recommendations given by you this year turn out to be multibaggers as it happend in the last few years.
Sir I have 2 queries:'
1.What is your opinion on HSIL.They being the market leader in sanityware segment,and the kind of expansion plans they have,Can we buy this stock?Will it be a multibagger given the good promoters they have?
2.Sir I was just hoping to see a new year stock pick from you...Till now i am waiting for it :)....On 31st I saw u again recommending liberty shoes as a long term bet.Can i assume that it will be the new yr pick from you and will be a wealth creator or multibagger even from current levels.
Please do reply
Thanks in dvance
Positive on HSIL ,as a long term pick
DeleteWe have three new years in an year
Beginning of Financial Year
Beginning of calender year
and
Diwali ...:)
Hello Sir,
ReplyDeletePlease give us your view on l& t Finance.Is it a good stock to buy for long term?
Please do reply
Thanks in advance
Hold for long term
DeleteSir,
ReplyDeleteAny view on Thomas Cook India?
Positive on Thomas cook for long term
DeleteSir, what do you think about Jamna Auto?
ReplyDeleteNot tracking this stock
DeleteSir, what do you think about PG Foils?
ReplyDeleteDear Sir, Can buy share of Aushapura Minechem at the current market price as it was entered by some mutual funds. please comment. Thanks and Regards .. Ramana
ReplyDeletePositive on Ashapura
DeleteWhat about Morepen
ReplyDeleteMorepen have lot of obligations to be cleared in 2014 ,earlier in the past they defaulted repayment of redemption money and also there is court cases between company and its fixed deposit holders . Management quality is not good as Marksans .Purely on fundamental basis - a very risky bet ,but if there is momentum in small pharma stocls ,you may get something .Timing of entry and exit is the key
DeleteSir,
ReplyDeleteAmara Raja Batteries is correcting now, earlier you had recommended this stock. I already have some with avg price Rs 251, wants to add more. Please specify the region to accumulate.
Whats your opinion on Emami Ltd and Bajaj Corp.
One can add Amara Raja in SIP mode
Deletesir ur view on ivrcl & ibpower
ReplyDeleteNot tracking both
DeleteSir, Any view on BGR ENERGY ?? Please do reply as I am holding 3200 BGR @ 324 avg rate.
ReplyDeletePositive on BGR @ current price but only for long term.
DeleteHello Friend,
ReplyDeleteI am floored completely with the kind of diagnosis you have done for each pick that you choose, which makes life simple for novice investors like us to assess any scrip before taking any decision.
With regards to this pick (Caplin) - I'm gonna take chance.
Also, another stock which has been great pick you had recommended was Marksans Pharma(MP) - I invested and earned - now I am out completely - do you recommend me to reenter this stock (MP), and if I may take a corroboration of your point number 4 in reference to Caplin - (4) No hesitation to reward share holders ,increased dividend from 10 % to 25 % in last four years.) where do you consider the policy of MP.
Would be happy to get your valuable comments,
Salim
Dear sir, presently i am holding Advanta 500 shares at 126 post split. can i still hold the same in the present scenario. please give me your comment. Regards Ramana
ReplyDeleteAdvanta had a one time exceptional loss in last quarter which affected its result on a consolidated level.I hope performance will improve going forward
DeleteSir,
ReplyDeleteI think you research and get info which even the management of the company might not know or will be surprised to know... truly unbelievable.
Please provide your view on Astec Lifescience...
Thanks,
Sunil
This stock already recommended and still positive on it.
DeleteHello sir, I have recently visited your website a month ago, the investments ideas that you share among the small investors like us is a boon for us, thanks a lot, I had made some investments in companies like mothersun sumi, Gujarat pip av port, wockhardt, can you please give your advise on these companies I am intresred in holding them for 5 years or more than that, thanks, shailesh
ReplyDeletePositive on Motherson Sumi and Wockhardt for long term,not tracking Pipavav
Deletesir
ReplyDeletepl advise me on avt natural product and jhs sevenguard
i am holding this stock for m long time ;; and i need yaur help
thanks to u
neeraj
Lot of insider selling is happening in AVT Natural in recent times .So neutral on this stock
DeleteAt least 10 times in the past two months I expressed my negative view on JHS
Sir,
DeleteI will tell you why there is so many enquiries for this stock. There is one more good hearted person like you who gives excellent investment ideas. He has been recommending JHS for long term and he is adamant and this will touch 3 digits.His tips have also been successful like you.
My dear friend
DeleteI can express only my own opinion and not interested to contest with any other's view.
As far as my understanding ,JHS Svenguaard is only a contract manufacturer on job work basis for companies who originally owns the brands like Colgate ,P&G ..etc.These type business model always running with thin margins and at the mercy of big cos who own brands .Last year there was a dispute with P&G and still the case is in the court and P&G stopped the sourcing from JHS.
More than that ,I am not comfortable with the past of the promoters of JHS.About 10 -15 years back they came out with another company in the similar line of business ,collected money through IPO and later disappeared from the exchanges.I don't like to advice my readers to take risk if risk reward ratio is not favorable.
Thanks a lot. I agree with your opinion. I like your work.God bless you
DeleteSir I am a new comer to nifty.I do not know which one I have to select with correctly for buying and selling.Kindly guide me sir
ReplyDeleteThank you
Actually I am not sure what you intended to say by "new comer to nifty " .NIFTY is an index of NSE .First try to spend enough time to learn the working of market ,its terms and working and the business behind each names listed in exchanges. Don't take decisions based only on tips but try to generate own conviction by gathering maximum information about companies you are interested .Then try to do some virtual trading (only on paper or so ) to check the success of your decisions .Then only invest in real terms. No need to hurry ,market and opportunities will be here always ...
ReplyDeleteNever try to trade in market as a new entrant ,stick only with investment
Never leverage - buy only with the available funds without any debt
Never use time bounded fund or funds kept for any other purpose for buying stocks
Invest whatever available beyond savings ,in stock market
Sir,plz advice me on APOLLO HOSPITAL,TECH MAHINDRA &TATA GLOBAL
ReplyDeleteI read daily ur blog many time a day as addicted to it
Generally looking into small/mid/micro caps.
DeleteTHANK YOU SIR
ReplyDeleteI have 2000 share of ak capital at 278 rs. What is your view sir for long term please advise me i am in huge lose
ReplyDeleteNot tracking AK Capital
DeleteSirji Madan J Hinduja & Dinesh J Hinduja are still selling Gokex Shares in open market for the last month, even on upper circuits.. Do u find anything suspicious...
ReplyDeleteThey sold their entire company few years back,now selling the remaining stocks
Deletesir,
ReplyDeletemy question not coming up.
Any view on Shasun Pharma at current levels?
Not tracking this stock
DeleteHi Value pick sir,
ReplyDeleteWhat do you think about Empee Distilleries? Is the management good?
Not tracking Empee Dist
Deletethat was awesome..20% in two days...thumps up for that pick..
ReplyDeleteSir, your viewpoints on Silpa Medicare and Alembic Pharma?
ReplyDeletePositive on Alembic ,enter in correction.Not tracking Shilpa
Deletethe problem is that any view you post,the next day it just shoots up...a investor like me can never buy at ur price...any suggestion please
ReplyDeleteWhile selecting any stock I will consider two factors viz value element and growth element in that stock.If a stock is under valued based on the fundamentals at the time of recommendation ,it may corrected immediately after recommendation and move up continuously till the deserving value reaches at the share price. But there is still scope for appreciation based on the growth of business which will happen over a period of time based on the subsequent results.Normally I will not recommend any stock, if I feels its potential ends only in one or two circuits based on its growth prospects.
Deleteexactly, we cant buy it on monday and later we buy it at higher price when others offload. but keep in mind its long term play, enter the bus sooner or later! what say sir ?
Deletesir , my query is not being answered.. i have been posting my query on ORIENT BELL. Please give advice at CMP
ReplyDeletePractically difficult to answer on a daily basis for same company .In last one month ,query on same stock replied at least 5 times.
DeleteDear Sir,
ReplyDeleteI have been visiting your site these days & going thru the excellent articles in ur blog, From my Deep of my heart, May god bless you & your family for the wonderful work you have been doing and please keep us informed of your excellent analysis & picks always.
Dear Vp sir,
ReplyDeleteWhat a excellent reply. I think many of us have similar doubt which u cleared in one go. Thanks
Nirav S. Karia
Dear Sir,
ReplyDeleteThis is second or third time that that i am writing to you. Would appreciate your view on this.
I have been tracking your recommendations since last 1.5 years. They are fabulous..you have got a very futuristic vision to identify the potential multibaggers. You are doing a great job.
I need one advice from you , i want to invest Rs. 50,000 to 80,000 in one stock. Out of Acrysil, sunshield chemicals, superhouse and Liberty shoes which one stock would you think would be worth investing this amount. I am a longterm investor.
Do reply.
Best Regards and thank you
Only you know your risk taking capacity ,fund flow, holding period,sector preference ..etc.I can only point out the possibilities about a company and decision should be taken by yourself after further self study
DeleteThanks a ton VP Sir,I'm just new on this blog and catching out some records.My question is about to enter in NITCO at CMP for 1.5 to 2 years.What's your advise on it?
ReplyDeleteSir,
ReplyDeleteWhats your opnion on GVK power and infrastructure. please advice?
Dear Sir,
ReplyDeleteAny follow up story/details on Panacea Biotec? The stock is not moving, may be it is tiring the investors. Your view whether hold/buy or sell?
Dear Sir,
ReplyDeleteI was studying Indrapratha Medical Corporation. This is Appollo Hospital Group Company and maintiaing Dividend of 16%. Yield work out to 5% Approx.
What is your view on this, Whether to invest or not to invest.
Sir, I want to know about JSW Holding and Nalwa Investment. Please give your views.
ReplyDeleteDear Sir,
ReplyDeleteI have 17 stocks in my portfolio. I am a long term investor (10years). now i would like to keep in my portfolio 10 stocks only (wealth create and good dividend payout). please give priority for long investment the below stocks.
1. Amaraja Batteris
2. Motherson Sumi
3. ICICI Bank
4. SBI Bank
5. Dabur
6. HUL
7. Pidilite Ind
8. Dhanuka Agri
9. Kaveri Seed
10. Century Ply
11. Kajaria Ceramics
12. Asian Paints
13. Supreme Ind
14. Astral Poly
15. La Opala RG
16. Mayur Uniquoter
17. Wipro
Dear Sir,
ReplyDeleteWhat is your view for Caplin Point Labs at current market price. SELL or HOLD or BUY????