Saturday, August 29, 2015

SEQUENT SCIENTIFIC - BUSINESS UPDATE







This stock suggested @ Rs.138 hits its life time high Yesterday  @ Rs.889. Management is keen to utilise every opportunity to emerge as a globally recognized player in animal health sector through inorganic route .As part of this strategy , company acquired many firms around the globe in past few months .The latest one in this series is  the acquisition of  Animal Health business of Lyka Exports  which announced yesterday .( Link HERE).


Latest CNBC Interview with MD HERE

Initial stock suggestion Link HERE

Wednesday, August 26, 2015

IMPORTANT MESSAGE ...

Dear Friends

It is learned that many of my readers received a message in their mobile stating that I am starting a mobile based stock recommendation service and inviting all to register for that . This is to clarify that , I never send any such message to anyone and not running or planning to start any such service . I am in no way responsible for any loss arising out of such activities. 

Monday, August 24, 2015

CHAOTIC BEAR MARKET ENVIRONMENT ....

Courtesy : Economic Times

Greed (bull) and fear (bear). These are two words investors often hear and think of, but are unable to control their emotions when it comes to investing. In fact, when stock markets are north-bound, their confidence in buying increases considerably.
They buy stocks irrespective of their high price-to-earning ratio and are sure to make good money. If, however, the markets enter a bearish phase, their confidence goes down, leaving them wondering where did they go wrong?
The chaotic bear market environment then sets the stage for fear to creep into their minds, thus impacting investment decisions. To make sure that you successfully weather the raging market storms, here are six ways to drive out your fears of losing money in a bear market.
Stay calm and act smart
Easy to say than follow. It is true that bear markets spread panic among investors, often causing them to sell all the stocks they hold. But a smart investor, according to capital market experts, is one who gets on with the job of picking up value stocks, notwithstanding where the tide of the market is moving. "Such an investor is rightly rewarded with great profits once the market turns. Since we fail to control our emotions, we forget that investment in equity is not for short term. So for long-term benefit, it is important to stay calm and act prudently in such times," advises Ashok Kumar Jain, chairman and managing director, Arihant Capital Markets.
Set realistic goals
You may have earlier doubled your money in a short span, say six months, by investing in a particular stock during a bull run, but you must remember —what goes up, comes down. Stock investing is not about speculating or making easy money. It is an art and science of buying good businesses at cheaper valuations.
"It is important to set realistic goals for your portfolio's long-term return, and buy only good companies with strong fundamentals and good management," says Jain. To nip your fears in a bearish market, you should avoid selling just because stock prices have dropped. "You must review your stock portfolio rationally. Then only you should arrive at a decision to sell losers whose future prospects look weak, and hold on to winners with prospects that remain solid," advises Jain.
Don't track the market
Another way you can soothe your nerves in a bear market is by not following the stock markets on a daily basis. Every investor knows that you should buy low and sell high. Bull markets provide you a chance to sell high. Bear markets, however, offer you a chance to buy low.
Unfortunately, too many investors are lulled into complacency during bull markets and scared out of their wits in bear markets. So they do just the opposite, buying high and selling low. "Thus, you should avoid tracking the stock markets daily during a bearish phase. This way you will save yourself from unnecessary anxiety and fear," says Amar Ambani, V-P, research, India Infoline.
Set aside emergency funds
Investors have the tendency to over-invest during a bull run, which becomes a reason for fear when the markets turn choppy. Ambani holds the view that to counter such a situation, you should have sufficient liquidity in hand for emergencies. "This will make sure that you aren't forced to sell equity holdings or other assets before the time and price are right," he says. To emerge as a winner, all you need to do is recognise the fact that your portfolio will decline from time to time, but take solace in knowing that short-term pain is required for long-term gain.
To make money in equities, it is important to be rational, not emotional. "You should always try to look at the positive side in a bad market," says Ambani. Citing an example, he says that a bear market provides an excellent opportunity to buy strong businesses at rock bottom prices.
Jain adds that no one can tell you when the next bull market will begin, how long will it last, or how high the market will ultimately go. "That should be the key point to drive out your fears in a bear market. So even if the markets are down, you should be convinced that your business is making money. The stock price may not generate great returns due to the bearish phase, but in the long term, your portfolio's returns will be unmatchable," he says.
Warren Buffett was recently quoted as saying: "I would offer you a significant sum of money if you could give me the opportunity for all of my stocks to go down 50% over the next month." You don't get maximum pessimism during bull markets. You get them when the world looks like it's falling apart. Times like now, for instance.
Study behavioural finance
Last but not the least, you can study behavioural finance to calm your fears in a bear market. For the uninitiated, behavioural finance pairs emotions with investments and shows how emotions and cognitive errors can cause disasters in investment decisions.
"Individual behaviour, temperament and psychology play an important role in determining investment success. Equity price movements are nothing but a summation of individual behaviours, reflecting their greed and fear," says Ambani.
As always happens, even experienced investors are susceptible to making judgment errors identified by behavioural finance research. "It can help you to be watchful of your behaviour and, in turn, avoid mistakes that will decrease your personal wealth.
It provides a platform to learn from people's mistakes, to modify and improve your overall investment strategies and actually profit from identifying these mistakes," feels Jain.
As for the bottomline, just as it is important to know when to exercise caution, the same way it is important to comprehend when to abstain from fear. Happy investing!


Saturday, August 22, 2015

6 Strategies to Steer You Through a Market Correction

Courtesy :http://money.usnews.com

  
One of the biggest mistakes long-term investors make is getting out of the stock market at the wrong time. We've all heard the saying "buy low, sell high," but mom-and-pop investors have a tendency to panic during market declines and sell when stock prices are down, locking in losses.
U.S. stocks have ridden a rising trend for six years as of March, a long stretch by historical standards. While that doesn't guarantee the stock market will crash anytime soon, it's always wise to review strategies to handle a declining market. If you are prepared, you can avoid emotional decision-making, which can be detrimental to your financial health, experts say.Declining stock markets often bring out strong emotions such as fear, anxiety and depression, says Dr. Gary Dayton, a psychologist and founder of Glastonbury, Connecticut-based TradingPsychologyEdge.com, a trading psychology coaching firm. "Making investment decisions based on emotions is always the worst way to invest,” he says.
While institutional investors look at market downturns as buying opportunities, individual investors often sell their investments. "This striking tendency has been documented for over 100 years. At some point in a falling market, individual investors’ fear will be at its highest. Frightened at the prospect of losing even more money, many investors panic and sell their holdings," Dayton says.
For individuals investing for retirement, with a time horizon of 10, 20 or 30 years, short-term bear cycles may not matter. The problem for long-term investors who sell in market declines is getting back into the market without missing the upturn."Numerous studies have shown that investors tend to panic during declines and at bottoms. It hurts because once markets recover, they tend to go up quite rapidly before investors realize that things are going back to normal,” says David L. Blain, chief executive officer of BlueSky Wealth Advisors LLC, a New Bern, North Carolina-headquartered wealth advisory firm. “By then, they have missed out on a large portion of the upside."The herd mentality also can play a part in stock market selling pressures. "Herding is the tendency of a group of market participants to behave like a school of fish or a flock of birds. When market conditions deteriorate, there is an initial rush to the exits," says Dr. Kenneth Reid, a trading coach and founder of Santa Fe, New Mexico-based DayTradingPsychology.com.




 1. Turn off the news. Listening to the news and reading about the dire economic predictions can heighten your nervousness. "Don’t look at your portfolio all the time. Turn off the TV and stop listening to your neighbor and the doom-and-gloom prognosticators. Focus on what you can control, which is your spending and saving. Make a new goal to save an extra X dollars a month while things are declining, and then invest it," Blain says.


2. Re-evaluate your portfolio. Do the stocks you hold continue to meet your investment criteria? "Winnow out the weak stocks by selling them. Stocks that no longer meet strong investment criteria are likely to decline the most in a market fall. You will be increasing your cash position, which can be used for the purchase of new stocks at attractive prices once the decline is over," Dayton says.

3. Make a list of stocks or funds you want to buy. A declining market can offer the opportunity to add to your long-term investment portfolio at a lower price point. "Long-term investors should welcome the occasional bear market if they have a good investment strategy and the discipline to see it through. The historical stock market trend is upward, and occasional bull markets are an opportunity to buy stocks while they are 'on sale.’ As Warren Buffett observed, it is profitable to be greedy when others are fearful," says Derek C. Hamilton, a certified financial planner at Indianapolis-based Elser Financial Planning Inc.


4. Stay diversified. A portfolio allocation with 60 percent stocks and 40 percent bonds is an old benchmark and starting point for portfolio diversification. Check out stock-and-bond mixes in a target-date fund based on your age to get an idea of appropriate allocations for your time horizon. Rebalancing your allocations is an important task you can do on a quarterly or annual basis so your portfolio will be ready if the market heads south. "If you have different asset classes, something will be going up. In the global financial crisis, it was U.S. Treasuries. The point is to determine ahead of time what sort of decline you can tolerate, and don’t invest in such a large percentage of stock that you will panic in a decline," Blain says.

5. Work with a financial advisor. Develop a comprehensive, written plan that sets out your important financial goals and how you will achieve them. This will be your map when the going gets tough. "We are all human beings, and fear can get the better of us. The best inoculation against a fear-driven investment mistake is professional guidance and a good plan," Hamilton says.
A fee-only financial adviser can help navigate you through a declining market. "He or she can help you avoid hasty, emotionally driven moves and see to it that any course corrections are well-considered and keep you on track to meet your goals," Hamilton adds.

6. Get a grip on your emotions. You may not be able to avoid an emotional response, but you can manage it. "Science is showing that the practice of mindfulness helps us reduce stress, changes brain regions associated with fear and therefore improves our internal control over emotions, and helps us be more aware of both opportunities and dangers when we are in challenging situations such as declining stock markets," Dayton says. "Mindfulness helps investors maintain an even emotional keel and make better investment decisions. It is the one mental skill I suggest all investors learn."
He adds: "Following an investment process and being prepared for the inevitable market declines helps you act prudently, keep truly great companies in your portfolio for the long term, protect them during market slumps and be in a position to buy other great companies at attractive prices when others are selling them in panic.”


Thursday, August 20, 2015

CAPLIN POINT LABORATORIES- RESULT UPDATE

This stock recommended last year @ Rs.86 (Currently trading @ Rs.1354)  published their full year result today ( Year Ending in June) . Company reported a top-line of Rs.240  Cr V/S Rs.166 Cr and a net profit of Rs.41 Cr V/S Rs.21 Cr .Full Year EPS is Rs.27 . Company also declared a dividend of Rs.5 per share .

Link to Original Posting HERE

Link to Result HERE

Saturday, August 15, 2015

How to Build a Stock Portfolio


Courtesy :Wikihow

The stock market and its potential for risk intimidates many people. Nonetheless, a well-built stock portfolio is likely to outperform other investments over time. It is possible to build a stock portfolio alone, but a broker can help. Knowing your goals and your willingness to take risks in advance, as well as understanding the nature of the market, can help you build a successful portfolio.

Part 1  Designing Your Portfolio


  1. Know what you're willing to invest. As you invest, you'll need to balance your potential risks against your potential rewards. A portfolio's assets are typically determined by the investor's goals, willingness to take risks, and the length of time the investor intends to hold his portfolio. Some of the most important factors to consider in making these decisions are:
    • The investor's age
    • How much time the investor is willing to spend allowing his investments to grow
    • Amount of capital the investor is willing to invest
    • Projected capital needs for the future

     2
    1. Decide what kind of investor you'll be. Portfolios usually fall somewhere in the spectrum between aggressive, or high-risk portfolios, and conservative, or low-risk portfolios. Conservative investors simply try to protect and maintain the value of a portfolio, while aggressive investors tend to take risks with the expectation that some of those risks will pay off.
      • Understand that your financial goals may change over time, and adjust your portfolio accordingly. Generally, the younger you are, the more risk you can afford or are willing to take. You may be better served with a growth-oriented portfolio. The older you become, the more you'll think about retirement income, and may be better served with an income-oriented portfolio.
      3
      Divide your capital. Once you've decided what kind of investor you'd like to be and what type of portfolio you want to build, you'll need to determine how you intend to spread around your capital. Most investors who are new to the market don't know how to pick stocks. Some important factors include:
      • Determining which sector(s) to invest in. A sector is the category a given industry is placed in.
      • Knowing the market capitalization (aka market cap), which is determined by multiplying a given company's outstanding shares by the current price of one share on the market.

      Part 2 : Making Investments


      1. Understand the different kinds of stocks. Stocks represent an ownership stake in the company that issues them. The money generated from the sale of stock is used by the company for its capital projects, and the profits generated by the company's operation may be returned to investors in the form of dividends. Stocks come in two varieties: common and preferred. Preferred stocks are so called because holders of these stocks are paid dividends before owners of common stocks. Most stocks, however, are common stocks, which can be subdivided into the categories below:
        • Growth stocks are those projected to increase in value faster than the rest of the market, based on their prior performance record. They may entail more risk over time but offer greater potential rewards in the end.
        • Income stocks are those that do not fluctuate much but have a history of paying out better dividends than other stocks. This category can include both common and preferred stocks.
        • Value stocks are those that are "undervalued" by the market and can be purchased at a price lower than the underlying worth of the company would suggest. The theory is that when the market "comes to its senses," the owner of such a stock would stand to make a lot of money.
        • Blue-chip stocks are those that have performed well for a long enough period of time that they are considered safe investments. They may not grow as rapidly as growth stocks or pay as well as income stocks, but they can be depended upon for steady growth or steady income. They are not, however, immune from the fortunes of the market.
        • Defensive stocks are shares in companies whose products and services people buy, no matter what the economy is doing. They include the stocks of food and beverage companies, pharmaceutical companies and utilities (among others).
        • Cyclical stocks, in contrast, rise and fall with the economy. They include stocks in such industries as airlines, chemicals, home building and steel manufacturers.
        • Speculative stocks include the offerings of young companies with new technologies and older companies with new executive talent. They draw investors looking for something new or a way to beat the market. The performance of these stocks is especially unpredictable, and they are sometimes considered to be a high-risk investment.

      2. Analyze stock fundamentals. Fundamentals is the term given to the pool of qualitative and quantitative data that are used to determine whether or not a stock option is a worthwhile investment in a long-term analysis of the market. Analyzing a company's fundamentals is usually the first step in determining whether or not an investor will buy shares in that company. It is imperative to analyze fundamentals in order to arrive at a company's intrinsic value - that is, the company's actual value as based on perception of all the tangible and intangible aspects of the business, beyond the current market value.
        • In analyzing the fundamentals of a company, the investor is trying to determine the future value of a company, with all of its projected profits and losses factored in.

      3. Analyze qualitative factors. Qualitative factors, such as the expertise and experience of a company's management, various courses of industry cycles, the strength of a company's research and development incentives, and a company's relationship with its workers, are important to take into account when deciding whether or not to invest in a company's stock. It's also important to understand how the company generates its profits and what that company's business model look like in order to have a broad spectrum of qualitative information about that company's stock options.
        • Try researching companies online before you invest. You should be able to find information about the company's managers, CEO, and board of directors.

        4.
        Look at the price-to-earnings ratio. The P/E ratio can be figured as either the stock's current price against its earnings per share for the last 12 months ("trailing P/E") or its projected earnings for the next 12 months ("anticipated P/E"). A stock selling for $10 per share that earns 10 cents per share has a P/E ratio of 10 divided by 0.1 or 100; a stock selling for $50 per share that earns $2 per share has a P/E ratio of 50 divided by 2 or 25. You want to buy stock with a relatively low P/E ratio.
        • When looking at P/E ratio, figure the ratio for the stock for several years and compare it to the P/E ratio for other companies in the same industry as well as for indexes representing the entire market, such as the Nifty,Sensex..etc


      5
       
      Look at the return on equity. Also called return on book value, this figure is the company's income after taxes as a percentage of its total book value. It represents how well shareholders are profiting from the company's success. As with P/E ratio, you need to look at several years' worth of returns on equity to get an accurate picture.
       
       
       6 
       
       
                Look at total return. Total return includes earnings from dividends as     well as changes in the value of the stock. This provides a means of comparing the stock with other types of investments.
       
       
      1. Try investing in companies trading below their current worth. While a broad spectrum of stock investments is important, analysts often recommend buying stock in companies that are trading for lower than they are worth. This sort of value investing does not, however, mean buying "junk" stocks, or stocks that are steadily declining. Value investments are determined by comparing intrinsic market value against the company's current stock share price, without looking at the short-term market fluctuations.
        8
        Try investing in growth stocks. Growth stocks are investments in companies that exhibit or are predicted to grow significantly faster than other stocks in the market. This involves analyzing a given company's present performance against its past performance amid the industry's ever-fluctuating climate.
         

        Part 3 : Maintaining Your Portfolio

        1
         
        Avoid dipping into investments. Once you've invested capital in a stock, it's important to let the stock grow for at least a year without selling your shares. Consider that money that for all intents and purposes cannot be withdrawn and spent elsewhere.
        • As part of investing for the long term, determine the amount of money you can afford to commit to the stock market for five years or longer, and set that aside for investing. Money you'll need in a shorter period of time should be invested in shorter-term investments such as money-market accounts, CDs , Treasury bonds, bills or notes.

        2
         
        Diversify your portfolio. No matter how successful a stock might be doing at the moment, the price and value of stocks are bound to fluctuate. Diversifying your investment portfolio can help you avoid this pitfall by spreading around your money to a number of stocks.
        • A well-diversified portfolio is important because in the event that one or more sectors of the economy start to decline, a diversified portfolio will remain strong over time and reduce the likelihood of taking a significant hit as the market fluctuates.
        • Don't just diversify across the spectrum of asset classes. Some experts recommend you should also diversify your stock picks within each asset class represented in your portfolio.
        3
         
        Review your portfolio (but not too often). Anticipate that the market will fluctuate. If you check your stocks every day, you might end up feeling anxious over the value of your investments as things go up or down. But by the same token, you should check on your investments periodically. Some experts recommend checking on the quarterly earnings reports of a given company to see if your predictions for that company are holding true. Make changes as necessary, but don't jump ship every time a share reports a minor decrease in value.
         
       

Tuesday, August 11, 2015

Jubilant Life Sciences in recovery mode




June quarter Result  HERE

Following Report published in Business Standard on 4 August 2015 


Bhartia family-promoted pharma company Jubilant Life Sciences is on a revival path. Having settled most of the issues raised by drug regulators, the company is now eyeing a growth in revenue and profitability on account of improved margins, new launches and expansion of markets.

“The business is showing signs of recovery. We expect a strong recovery in FY16 in the top line and bottom line. Our revenue growth is expected to be driven by the pharmaceuticals segment. Our life science ingredients segment is expected to deliver better results due to improved operational efficiency, higher profitability and growth in nutritional products and fine ingredients businesses,” said Chairman in an investor call in May. The company clocked sales of Rs 5,826 crore in the last financial year, with Rs 40 crore loss, almost half the revenues coming from the pharma and the rest from the life sciences business.

The stock price was trading at Rs 170 when Bhartia addressed the investors. Since then, it has appreciated 64 per cent, touching a fresh 52-week high almost every day for the past few days. It touched a 52-week high of Rs 278 on Tuesday and closed the day at Rs 266.60. “We have a 'buy' rating on the stock. There has been an improvement in the business. The company has successfully addressed issues of the (Food and Drugs Authority) warning letters in its two overseas manufacturing facilities. It has taken a price increase in some segments,” said Saion Mukh-erjee, health care analyst at Nomura Securities. Other brokerages likealso have a ‘buy’ rating on Jubilant.

The company received warning letters from the US FDA for its two plants in Quebec (Canada) and Spokane (US) in February 2013 and November 2013, respectively. This has led to comprehensive remediation measures, especially in Spokane, which was shut for three-four months. The plants also took longer than expected time to stabilise after-remediation and impacted productivity in the contract manufacturing business. The business is normalising and the company has also set up a second production line at Spokane that will lead to higher revenue.

Apart from beefing up its operations, the company has successfully refinanced debt. It had net debt of Rs 4,396 crore as of March 31, of which Rs 3,165 crore is a long-term debt and the rest working capital loans. Loans that were falling due in FY15 and FY16 have been refinanced, with a new maturity period of five to seven years.

Prabhudas Lilladher’s Surajit Pal said in a report last month that the achievement of milestones in key business verticals will narrow the high discount at which the company is being valued vis-a-vis  peers. It upgraded its recommendation from ‘accumulate’ in a May report to ‘buy’ in July. “With the completion of majority of correction measures and addressing concerns, the company is expected to improve revenues in business verticals, which have been the key reasons for its worst sales growth and operating margin in FY15,” said Pal in the report.

The company’s Roorkee facility was successfully inspected by US FDA recently. Exports to Japan have also resumed in Q4 of last year post-receipt of approval from regulatory authority. It launches new products like Solifenacin in Europe and Valsartan in US, besides many others in emerging markets.




Disc: Holding shares in Jubilant Life 

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