Saturday, January 21, 2017

Stock-Picking Strategies: Qualitative Analysis


Courtesy : Investopedia

Fundamental analysis has a very wide scope. Valuing a company involves not only crunching numbers and predicting cash flows but also looking at the general, more subjective qualities of a company. Here we will look at how the analysis of qualitative factors is used for picking a stock.


Management 
 
The backbone of any successful company is strong management. The people at the top ultimately make the strategic decisions and therefore serve as a crucial factor determining the fate of the company. To assess the strength of management, investors can simply ask the standard five Ws: who, where, what, when and why?

Who?
Do some research, and find out who is running the company. Among other things, you should know who its CEO, CFO, COO and CIO are. Then you can move onto the next question.

Where? You need to find out where these people come from, specifically, their educational and employment backgrounds. Ask yourself if these backgrounds make the people suitable for directing the company in its industry. A management team consisting of people who come from completely unrelated industries should raise questions. If the CEO of a newly-formed mining company previously worked in the industry, ask yourself whether he or she has the necessary qualities to lead a mining company to success.

What and When?
What is the management philosophy? In other words, in what style do these people intend to manage the company? Some managers are more personable, promoting an open, transparent and flexible way of running the business. Other management philosophies are more rigid and less adaptable, valuing policy and established logic above all in the decision-making process. You can discern the style of management by looking at its past actions or by reading the annual report's management, discussion & analysis (MD&A) section. Ask yourself if you agree with this philosophy, and if it works for the company, given its size and the nature of its business.

Once you know the style of the managers, find out when this team took over the company. Jack Welch, for example, was CEO of General Electric for over 20 years. His long tenure is a good indication that he was a successful and profitable manager; otherwise, the shareholders and the board of directors wouldn't have kept him around. If a company is doing poorly, one of the first actions taken is management restructuring, which is a nice way of saying "a change in management due to poor results". If you see a company continually changing managers, it may be a sign to invest elsewhere.

At the same time, although restructuring is often brought on by poor management, it doesn't automatically mean the company is doomed. For example, Chrysler Corp was on the brink of bankruptcy when Lee Iacocca, the new CEO, came in and installed a new management team that renewed Chrysler's status as a major player in the auto industry. So, management restructuring may be a positive sign, showing that a struggling company is making efforts to improve its outlook and is about to see a change for the better.

Why?
A final factor to investigate is why these people have become managers. Look at the manager's employment history, and try to see if these reasons are clear. Does this person have the qualities you believe are needed to make someone a good manager for this company? Has s/he been hired because of past successes and achievements, or has s/he acquired the position through questionable means, such as self-appointment after inheriting the company?

Know What a Company Does and How it Makes Money 

 
A second important factor to consider when analyzing a company's qualitative factors is its product(s) or service(s). How does this company make money? In fancy MBA parlance, the question would be "What is the company's business model?"

Knowing how a company's activities will be profitable is fundamental to determining the worth of an investment. Often, people will boast about how profitable they think their new stock will be, but when you ask them what the company does, it seems their vision for the future is a little blurry: "Well, they have this high-tech thingamabob that does something with fiber-optic cables… ." If you aren't sure how your company will make money, you can't really be sure that its stock will bring you a return.

One of the biggest lessons taught by the dotcom bust of the late '90s is that not understanding a business model can have dire consequences. Many people had no idea how the dotcom companies were making money, or why they were trading so high. In fact, these companies weren't making any money; it's just that their growth potential was thought to be enormous. This led to overzealous buying based on a herd mentality, which in turn led to a market crash. But not everyone lost money when the bubble burst: Warren Buffett didn't invest in high-tech primarily because he didn't understand it. Although he was ostracized for this during the bubble, it saved him billions of dollars in the ensuing dotcom fallout. You need a solid understanding of how a company actually generates revenue in order to evaluate whether management is making the right decisions. 


Industry/Competition
 
Aside from having a general understanding of what a company does, you should analyze the characteristics of its industry, such as its growth potential. A mediocre company in a great industry can provide a solid return, while a mediocre company in a poor industry will likely take a bite out of your portfolio. Of course, discerning a company's stage of growth will involve approximation, but common sense can go a long way: it's not hard to see that the growth prospects of a high-tech industry are greater than those of the railway industry. It's just a matter of asking yourself if the demand for the industry is growing.

Market share is another important factor. Look at how Microsoft thoroughly dominates the market for operating systems. Anyone trying to enter this market faces huge obstacles because Microsoft can take advantage of economies of scale. This does not mean that a company in a near monopoly situation is guaranteed to remain on top, but investing in a company that tries to take on the "500-pound gorilla" is a risky venture.

Barriers against entry into a market can also give a company a significant qualitative advantage. Compare, for instance, the restaurant industry to the automobile or pharmaceuticals industries. Anybody can open up a restaurant because the skill level and capital required are very low. The automobile and pharmaceuticals industries, on the other hand, have massive barriers to entry: large capital expenditures, exclusive distribution channels, government regulation, patents and so on. The harder it is for competition to enter an industry, the greater the advantage for existing firms.


Brand Name
 
A valuable brand reflects years of product development and marketing. Take for example the most popular brand name in the world: Coca-Cola. Many estimate that the intangible value of Coke's brand name is in the billions of dollars! Massive corporations such as Procter & Gamble rely on hundreds of popular brand names like Tide, Pampers and Head & Shoulders. Having a portfolio of brands diversifies risk because the good performance of one brand can compensate for the underperformers.

Keep in mind that some stock-pickers steer clear of any company that is branded around one individual. They do so because, if a company is tied too closely to one person, any bad news regarding that person may hinder the company's share performance even if the news has nothing to do with company operations. A perfect example of this is the troubles faced by Martha Stewart Omnimedia as a result of Stewart's legal problems in 2004.

Don't Overcomplicate
 
You don't need a PhD in finance to recognize a good company. In his book "One Up on Wall Street", Peter Lynch discusses a time when his wife drew his attention to a great product with phenomenal marketing. Hanes was test marketing a product called L'eggs: women's pantyhose packaged in colorful plastic egg shells. Instead of selling these in department or specialty stores, Hanes put the product next to the candy bars, soda and gum at the checkouts of supermarkets - a brilliant idea since research showed that women frequented the supermarket about 12 times more often than the traditional outlets for pantyhose. The product was a huge success and became the second highest-selling consumer product of the 1970s.

Most women at the time would have easily seen the popularity of this product, and Lynch's wife was one of them. Thanks to her advice, he researched the company a little deeper and turned his investment in Hanes into a solid earner for Fidelity, while most of the male managers on Wall Street missed out. The point is that it's not only Wall Street analysts who are privy to information about companies; average everyday people can see such wonders too. If you see a local company expanding and doing well, dig a little deeper, ask around. Who knows, it may be the next Hanes.

Conclusion
Assessing a company from a qualitative standpoint and determining whether you should invest in it are as important as looking at sales and earnings. This strategy may be one of the simplest, but it is also one of the most effective ways to evaluate a potential investment.



Saturday, January 7, 2017

5 things one must consider before making fresh Section 80C investment for FY 2016-17

Courtesy : Economic Times



The fag end of the financial year is when we scurry around and grapple with bewildering alphanumeric combinations like Section 80C and 80DD. If your tax-saving efforts are last minute the chances of locking funds in an unsuitable investment are quite high.

Tax-saving investment should never be made on an ad-hoc basis or for an ill-conceived goal. But with the accounts department of your organisation knocking on your door to submit proofs of actual investments, many people try to   make tax saving investments at the last minute.

Here is how you can do last-minute tax planning to not only reduce your tax liability, but also save towards the goals you have set at different life stages.

While choosing the right tax-saver, base your decision on these five important things, among others:
*How much deduction from gross total income can you avail
*The amount of fresh tax-saving investments you need to make
*Kind of tax-saving instrument you should invest in
*Tenure of the investment
*Taxability of income from the investment

Once you have got a fix on these, equally important is to choose a tax-saving instrument which can be linked to a specific goal .
How much deduction can you avail
Section 80C allows deduction from gross total income (before arriving at taxable income) of up to Rs 1.5 lakh per annum on one or more eligible investments and specified expenses. The eligible investments include life insurance, Equity Linked Savings Schemes (ELSS) mutual funds, Public Provident Fund (PPF), National Savings Certificate (NSC), etc., while expenses and outflows can include tuition fees, principal repayment of home loan, among others.
If you have exhausted your annual limit Sec 80C limit of Rs 1.5 lakh, you can also look at National Pension System (NPS) to save towards retirement and, in the process, save additional tax.

From 2015-16 onwards, an additional (additional to Section 80C) deduction of up to Rs 50,000 under Section 80CCD (1b) for investment in NPS is also possible. For someone in the highest 30 per cent income tax bracket, it's an additional annual saving of about Rs 15,000.

Further, the premium paid towards a health insurance plan for self and family members qualifies for tax benefit under Section 80D for Rs 25,000 and Rs 30,000 for those above 60. If one has a home loan, interest payments made towards its repayment can also be claimed under Section 24 of the Income Tax Act. The other deductions include donations under Section 80G, interest payments under Section 80E for education loan, etc.

Fresh investments you need to make
Before you start looking for the right tax saver, run this simple exercise to evaluate whether you actually need to make any fresh investments for this financial year (2016-17).

Non-Section 80C deductions: First, look at all non-Section 80C deductions like the interest paid on home loan, health plans, educational loan.
Section 80C outflows: Then consider Section 80C-related  expenses like children's tuition fees, principal repayment on home loan, pure term life insurance plans premiums.
Existing Section 80C commitments: Consider all the existing Section 80C commitments to invest/to pay premium such as in Employees' Provident Fund (EPF) and endowment life insurance, respectively

The exercise above gives you a total of existing commitments under Section 80C, 80D and other deductions. Now, from your gross total income, reduce the amount to arrive at the taxable income.

If your net income after doing the above calculation is still above the tax exemption limit of Rs 2.5 lakh then you need to look at further tax saving. To reduce taxable income further and provided the limit of section 80C isn't yet exhausted, look for the right Section 80C investments.
Kind of tax-saving instrument
Within the basket of Section 80C investments, there are two options to choose from: Investments offering "Fixed and assured returns" and those offering "market-linked returns".

The former primarily includes debt assets, including notified bank deposits with a minimum period of five years, endowment life insurance plans, PPF, NSC, Senior Citizens Savings Scheme (SCSC), etc. The returns are fixed for the entire duration and and generally in line with the rates prevalent in the economy and very close to inflation figure. They suit conservative investors whose aim is to preserve capital rather than create wealth.

The 'market-linked returns' category is primarily the equity-asset class. Here, one can choose from ELSS of mutual funds and Unit-Linked Insurance Plan (ULIP), pension plans and the NPS. The returns are not assured but linked to the performance of the underlying assets such as equity or debt.  They have the potential to generate higher inflation adjusted return in the long run to the extent they are based on the equity asset class.
Tenure
All the above tax-saving instruments, by nature, are medium to long term products: From a three-year lock-in that comes with ELSS to a 15-year lock-in of PPF. Some like life insurance require annual payments to be made for a longer duration.

Taxability of income
Another important factor to consider is the post-tax return of the tax-saving investment. For instance, most fixed and assured returns products such as NSC provide you with Section 80C benefits, but the returns, currently 8 per cent (five-year) annually, are taxable. This makes the effective post-tax return equal to 5.52 per cent for the highest taxpayers. Considering the annual inflation of six per cent, the real return is almost zero!

Of all the tax-saving tools, only PPF, EPF, ELSS and insurance plans enjoy the EEE status, i.e., the growth is tax-exempt during the three stages of investing, growth and withdrawal.

Making the right choice
First, identify your medium and long term goals. A market-linked equity-backed tax-saving instrument is good for long term goals as equities need time to perform. And, before considering a taxable investment, see the tax rate that applies to you and consider the post-tax return. A low post-tax return after adjusting for inflation will not help you in achieving your goals in the long run. Inflation erodes the purchasing power of money, especially  
over long term.

Conclusion
Tax planning should ideally begin at the start of every financial year. Remember, the risks of planning tax-saving in a hurry later are manifold. There is, for instance, a high probability of picking up an unsuitable product. Also, there isn't any one instrument that can help you save tax and at the same time also provide safe, assured and highest return. Your final choice should ideally be based on a gamut of factors rather than solely being driven by returns from the financial product.

The fag end of the financial year is when we scurry around and grapple with bewildering alphanumeric combinations like Section 80C and 80DD. If your tax-saving efforts are last minute the chances of locking funds in an unsuitable investment are quite high.

Tax-saving investment should never be made on an ad-hoc basis or for an ill-conceived goal. But with the accounts department of your organisation knocking on your door to submit proofs of actual investments, many people try to  ..

The fag end of the financial year is when we scurry around and grapple with bewildering alphanumeric combinations like Section 80C and 80DD. If your tax-saving efforts are last minute the chances of locking funds in an unsuitable investment are quite high.

Tax-saving investment should never be made on an ad-hoc basis or for an ill-conceived goal. But with the accounts department of your organisation knocking on your door to submit proofs of actual investments, many people try to  ..

Followers

Tweet TopOfBlogs