This stock initially recommended ( HERE) during August 2010
around Rs.61.At that time I mentioned
EPC as a potential take over target. As expected, one of India’s largest
business group – Mahindra and Mahindra
(M&M) later took over this company
in February 2011.It is two year now and let us re look at the
initiatives taken by the new management and its
future prospects.
First of all , it was two bad years
for micro irrigation companies due to delay in releasing subsidies by various
state governments.This resulted in serious working capital issues to companies
operating in this sector.Mounting debt was the end result and due to this
reason market cap of Industry leader Jain Irrigation nosedives.Earlier most of
the companies in this sector was
following a business model which put the burden and responsibility of
collecting subsidies from governments on the shoulders of companies itself and
not on the farmers . They realized the risk of this business model only after frequent cases of delay in the
releasing of subsidies in recent
times.Now it is a transformation phase of this business model and company’s are
now only helping the farmers and it is their responsibility to collect subsidy from the state governments.Normally ,as a result of this change in strategy ,sales
growth of MIS shows lower growth
during this transformation phase .Now most of the companies including Jain
Irrigation is adopting this new model
and expecting significant improvement in business in another few quarters once
this shift completes.
Being a pioneer in farming related business ,Mahindra’s took a careful
step and begin with a prudent decision to start with the new
model.Initially ,to strengthen the
capital base and support working capital requirements M&M infused further
funds into EPC through a rights issue priced
@ Rs.40. Through this rights they hiked their stake from 38 % to 55 % (
M&M subscribed the unsubscribed portion of Schroder Credit Renaissance Fund
,as part of take over agreement)
Then ,M&M formed a new board and appointed well experienced
executives to lead the company .Mr Ashok Sharma appointed as the ED and CEO of
EPC .He is also serving as Chief Executive -Agri and Allied Business of
M&M,Mr Subhash Modak as COO ( Vice president M&M) and Mr Pavan Deolia as Head Sales
& Marketing (General Manager- M&M ltd)
Under this new leadership ,company get a new direction and started fresh initiatives to become a leader in agri
space.First of all ,EPC amended its
object clause of Memorandum of Association to enable it to diversify into other
agri related areas like seeds, fertilizers, pesticides, agri chemicals,
tractors implements, pumps, greenhouses, power, fruits and vegetables, meat and
poultry, dairy, aquaculture, marine culture, grains and fast moving consumer
goods..etc.
Further the company increased its offering by adding new products in its
portfolio including pumps and new models
of micro irrigation systems.This will help EPC to become a one stop shop for
all MIS needs .Company started strengthening
its marketing network by adding dealers in un represented areas.
One drawback of this company during the erstwhile
management was its inability to offer complete solutions rather than just selling MIS products.But company now
started Agronomy Support Services
including Educating farmers in the areas of Introduction of new
crops,Crop selection,pest and weed management ..etc. Agri Helpline is another new
initiative by EPC for farmers .Farmers can call or mail for clearing any agri
related doubts .If necessary, company’s expert will personally visit the farm
and give advices free of cost. All these efforts will ensure a close relation
with farming community and increase the brand value of EPC as a complete
farming solutions provider.
New Initiatives
EPC recently started an agri show room ( a one stop shop for all agro products and
solutions ) in Buldhana district of Maharashtra.I believe it is only a first
step of a long journey and company will start many such shops at various parts
of India once they started own production of other items like Seeds,agri
chemicals,green house accessories..etc.
Another most important development in the history of EPC is
its recent tie-up with State Bank of India( SBI) .Last week ,company entered
into tie-up with SBI to finance farmers
for micro irrigation systems.Considering the vast network of SBI even in the
nuck and corner of India ,clinching such an arrangement with India’s biggest
bank is a very important development for
EPC .For financing farmers ,even some market leaders are forced to start
financing facilities for their own which
need additional capital end extra struss in their balance sheet .I strongly
believe such a an arrangement materialized only because of the goodwill and credibility of Mahindra Group.( Read more details about this event HERE)
Financial Performance and Change in Share Holding
Even after following a conservative business model ,company
could improve its business.During the latest quarter ,EPC reported a Sales of
Rs.50 Cr ( Rs.40 Cr in same period last year) and a net profit of Rs.2.70 Cr
(Rs.1.98 Cr) .This may not be a big figure but we should realise it is just a
beginning for the new management and the initiatives they are taking now will
need some time to deliver in its full potential. Change in share holding during
the last one year is another point to note. Earlier about 34 % stake was held
by Credit Renaissance Fund. ( who took preferential allotment to pump money for
working capital during the time of old management).Now they exited completely
and these shares are mopped up by reputed Institutional and Individual
investors including Morgan Stanley,Reliance Capital,SCIL Ventures..etc.This
means, exit of 35 % stake by one stake holder not increased the level of floating stock in market
.Another source of supply coming to the
market is from the remaining stake held by the old promoters .I strongly feel
,their exit is part of the take over
agreement with M&M .At the
end of December quarter old promoters (
Trenton Investments Co Pvt Ltd ) holding
934985 shares .Tracking the trend of trading of this stock for the past
many years , I believe they are selling around Rs.140 and this is the only
source of major supply at this point . Their holding may be reduced
further due to selling in January and February.
As I mentioned above about 85 % of shares are held by promoters and
institutions in this company .Management is taking careful steps to develop EPC
as a full fledged farming solution provider.At present , sales of micro
irrigation systems are promoted by producers and central and various states and government .I believe
this scenario will change in another few years and due to scarcity of water and
introduction of modern farming techniques MIS will be a necessity for farming and
farmers itself will demand it .If everything goes well ,with an experienced
management with vision and ability to
tap opportunities , I strongly feel EPC
will evolve as a front runner in Indian Agri space and become a feather in the cap of Mahindra Group in
another few years.CMP of EPC Rs.143 /-
Stock is expected to move to another range once the supply
from old promoters absorbed.Hence recommending to tightly HOLD it for long
term .
LINK TO VIDEO PRESENTATION BY CEO HERE
LINK TO COMPANY’S NEW WEBSITE HERE
Once again a well researched recommendation.Thanks ji.
ReplyDeleteThank you for sharing the source of webs.... Its really useful new insight for us (e.g. Indiawaterreview etc) to track many other related stories...
ReplyDeleteNithi
vpji u dont reply to queries
ReplyDeleteatleast give me a view on CEEBCO ...many analysts say to buy and some saying to sell
There are many similar stories like this in recent times including Zylog,Glodyne,Opto ..etc .I think CEBBCO is better in two counts ie,promoters stake and debt level.But it is a fact, in all these cases lot of shares held with big investors ( or pledged by promoters) came to market and it is floating in the hands of retail investors.This will restrict the gain in near future till these shares are absorbed by some biggies after an improvement in the financials of companies going through these type situations.Moreover in the case of substantial fall in promoter stake due to pledge selling I don't think promoters will show any genuine interest to run the business through the listed entity .Even if there is opportunities they may divert the business through some privately held companies .So keenly watch whether the promoters are taking any steps to hike their stake in the case of pledge shares sold cos and whether there is signs of improvement in business for others ,then take a decision.
Deleteplease share your view about is this stock is good to purchase at this price??
ReplyDeleteDear VP
ReplyDeleteIn the Micro Irrigation sector, another company Sturdy Industries has annual sales turnover of about 700 Cr vs that 150 Cr of EPC .. How do you see Sturdy industries going foward considering it's CMP is just Rs 3 and promoter holding is about 52% and it has been in the 2.5-4.5 range for about 2 years. I would be obliged if you give a detailed response ..thanks a long !!
Already recommended to avoid Sturdy Industries
DeleteSee the below two postings
http://value-picks.blogspot.in/2010/07/sturdy-industries-better-to-avoid.html
http://value-picks.blogspot.in/2010/09/sturdy-industries-fooling-investors.html
Dear VP,
DeleteI congratulate you for projecting so accurately on Sturdy industries more than 2 years back. Do you still hold the same view or situation has changed for the better for this company ? Your one line answer would be enough for me to forget Sturdy industries as an investement option.. thanks !!
No change
DeleteDear Sir ,
ReplyDeleteWhat is your view for Gulf Oil Corp. Ltd. Hinduja fame after the co. bought biggest Lubricant Oil co in Uk through subsidiary ?
Not tracking .Generally speaking - one should also consider the burden while taking over big cos in the form of debt ..etc .Take a decision only after analysing whether it is viable and affordable especially at a time of high interest rate situation.
DeleteSir, I have very recently started reading through your blog. I really appreciate your knowledge and hard work in helping the community. Thanks for your valuable suggestions.
ReplyDeleteI would like to know if it would be good to invest newly in this stock now, as you have suggested for a hold.
Regards,
Nithish Kumar
Dear vp sir,
ReplyDeleteCan i buy epc at current cmp?
I think you got what I means
DeleteDo some home work on remaining stake with the old promoter ,last two months volume and volume in coming days and then take a decision.I can't say will it absorbed in a bulk deal as it happened in the case of shares held by Credit Renaissance.
Sir,
ReplyDeleteHow can we treat stocks with large Contingent Liabilities.
I saw a company named Deepak Spinners(CMP:26, MCap:18 Crore,Contingent Liability:58 Crore)
This quarter company posted Sales :80 Crore, PAT: 5 Crore, EPS: 7 Rs
I was always lured by companies posting this kind Results & invested earlier but I ended up getting trapped in such investments.
Please guide me as I made investments seeing good profit/eps in companies like SEL Manufacturing & Others & Eroded major portion of my Net Worth.
Thanks,
Nirupam Jain
Should sense something wrong if there is huge profit but cash flow is big negative for many years and no dividend pay out .Don't jump in such cases without some deep digging .
DeleteVP, wat u mean by cash flow? could u pls expain ..
DeleteI have an observation:
ReplyDeleteYou said that Credit Renaissance has exited from the stock. Whereas in moneycontrol website I see that they till hold 34% stake.
Would appreciate if you can clarify.
Exit completed only on January 8 ,2013 but share holding updated till 31 December 2012
ReplyDeleteSee the below link
http://www.bseindia.com/markets/equity/EQReports/BulknBlockDeals.aspx?scripcd=523754
Yes indeed!
ReplyDeleteThank you very much
Dear vp sir,could u plz share ur view on cuppid rubber???
ReplyDeleteRegards
Jasim
Dubai
Why Cupid not paying tax ?
DeleteThank you sir.i understud what u mean it.
DeleteRegards
Jasim
nice research work...sir can u tell me about claris lifesciences result update what is your view about that result
ReplyDeletethank u
I think Claris' decision to sell major portion of its business is not positive .
DeleteDear Sir ,
ReplyDeleteWhat is your view regarding SEAMEC & INSILCO both are Multinationals kindly guide ?
Thanks
Regards
Dear VP,
ReplyDeleteWhich sector you expect to perform well despite of the overall sluggishness? Isn't good to shift to better companies than getting blocked our money in co's of currently slow-moving sectors?
As a sector Pharma and Banking may out perform in medium term.Out performance is possible by individual companies from other sectors too.
DeleteKSP pumbs results are good!!!!! Thanks to bring this scrip to investors attention....
ReplyDeleteNIthi
Dear VP,
ReplyDeleteWhat is your view on JSW engergy. It has shown good no. in this quarter.
Govt policy decisions are the need of the hour in power industry.
DeleteSir, what do you think about Orbit Exports?
ReplyDeleteNot tracking
DeleteDear VP sir,
ReplyDeletewant to know your view on Godrej Ind after correction? I am holding 100 shares@240. Can I add @cmp or sell?
Thanks & regards
Abir
Good Stock,buy in small lots.
DeleteDear vp gi,
ReplyDeleteIs it the right time to enter into some beaten down stocks such as aarvee denim, sabero organics, heritage, acrysil?
Reason is more important ,Prefer the last three .
DeleteDear Sir , Whats your view on Jai Balaji Industries ?
ReplyDeleteIs "simran farms " book loss presently or Hold?
ReplyDeleteDear Ajit
ReplyDeleteWe have discussed this matter in detail in recent times .Check the comments of recent posts.
it's very difficult to find all those without search box..
ReplyDeleteUse the Search option available at the top left corner of the blog.Unfortunately only postings are available using this search ,comments not.
Deletehi Sir,
ReplyDeleteyour view on Schneider and Speciality please. would you suggest a BUY. I have a 2-3 yr timeframe. Please advice
VP Sir,
ReplyDeleteThe promoters of Hi-tech Gears have been continuously adding the stock since last few weeks. Seems like they accumulating the stock which is available at very cheap levels and also they declareied div so they stand to benefit from it.
Any thoughts as the company seems very good but cap goods sector is down and hence the price.
Do you see good time for Gears/cap goods companies in long run like Hitech Gears, ELECON etc.?
Thanks.
Many quality companies from currently out of favor sectors are available at attractive valuation.But 99 % of our investors does not have patience to reap benefits by showing enough patience.While buying they will promise for a very long term hold,but in reality they will start asking ' why it is not moving ? ' after just 6 months or one year.There is many opportunities in capital goods and auto related sectors but that is not suitable for investors investors with a shivering hand.
DeleteDear vp sir,
ReplyDeleteHow do you view denora results? is it a buy at current cmp?
Result was not bad,but no clue about the order book.
DeleteDear VP,
ReplyDeleteDe nora moving in lower circuit every day in low volums.
What does it mean, in your opinion?
Regards
Vishnu
May be due to over expectation about Result
Deletewhat about your view on power cable sector. the entire sector now available at very atractive level pe multiple less three... please suggest me one of fundamentally strong stock for long term investment like diamond power or KEI Industries....
ReplyDeleteSame answer given to the comment of one Mr Suresh ,above.
ReplyDeleteHi Valuepick,
ReplyDeletePost Strides Arcolab deal...the stock is correcting daily.With company expected to pay half of the money as dividend.
As you are an informed investor, what is your thoughts on the reason for this selling?
Do you advice a buy in this Stock?
Regards,
Vikas
Dear Vikas
ReplyDeleteReason may be two
1) So far Promoters not clearly mentioned the dividend pay out ratio.
2) After selling this business Strides will be a company with turnover less than Rs.1000 Cr .In recent times promoters diluting their stake in strides and at the same time hiking their stake in the other company Sequent Scientific .After selling out the major portion of the business of Strides ,in which company promoters will concentrate is another question.Promoters will hold 16174202 in strides and 17284511 shares in Sequent( post pref).This means they are only minority share holders with just 27 % stake in Strides now but holding more than 65% in sequent .
These may be the main reasons.