Our economy and stock market is going through a rough
patch for the past many months ( not the
indices) .Reasons may vary from weak government,policy paralysis,higher
inflation,current account deficit ,crisis in power supply,mining ban
,additional supply of PSU shares ..etc.etc.In mid and small caps space a real
carnage is going on where stock prices of many companies ruling around life
time or multi year lows.In addition to the above mentioned reasons , I believe
one of the major factors affecting the sentiment in small/mid caps is the uncertainty created by the latest SEBI decision to change the trading method
for illiquid stock.( not the method but the criteria for fixing the eligibility
is the real reason for concern).It seems all market participants including
stock exchange authorities,brokers and investors are in full of dark and no
clue about the impact of this method on volume and price .I think ,this uncertainty is a major reason for the sharp fall in small/mid caps in past few
weeks .There is no takers and hence no market depth for midcaps .Many of the
investors are in a wait and watch mood and not ready to take any new
commitments before some clarity emerges even they know the fact that many good
companies are trading at attractive valuations.This is the feeling many of my
friends shared in recent weeks .Some investors even selling their holdings and
shifting their positions to other stocks which may excluded from new method
based on the declared criteria. I believe ,SEBI is actually ‘burning the house
to kill a rat’ .Let us wait one more week and see its implications.
This week’s recommendation is a low priced scrip which is
not an illiquid stock under new criteria
!! .Reason is not this alone but some more
positive developments happening in this
company after a long period.MARKSANS PHARMA is
owned by Mr Mark Saldhana , the younger brother of the MD of Glenmark Pharma
.Actually the name GLENMARK derived from the name of two brothers GLEN Saldhana
and MARK Saldhana.In 2003 Glenmark Pharma’s wholly-owned subsidiary Glenmark
Laboratories de-merged from it and later in 2005 this division merged with another
listed company Tasc Pharma .Then its
name changed to the present one MARKSANS PHARMA and Mark Saldhana took charge
of this company.Company’s performance was satisfactory till 2008 and thereafter
derailed due to different reasons.It
raised FCCB for overseas buyouts and took over some foregin companies in UK and
Australia which did not perform initially, as expected.FCCB holders not
converted their bonds due to lower stock
price and the repayment of the same ends as a huge burden on the company. As in
the case of many other company’s issed FCCB’s during that period ,Indian
currency’s diminishing valuation added fuel to fire.
When we analyse
in detail,it is clear that the two major reasons for huge loss in past many
years and complete erosion of net worth
of this company is FCCB obligation and loss of its API division. Last year company exited from API and sold out this loss making unit.In a surprising
announcement ( Read it HERE) ,in this month , company
informed BSE that it has entered into a Settlement Agreement with
the holders of Foreign Currency Convertible Bonds.Even the nature and means of this
settlement not explained,MD's open market purchase of shares in the past few days indicating they have reached in a favorable settlement terms for the company and some clear ideas in mind.Last year promoters subscribed preferential issue and hiked their
stake to 51% from 48% .
After selling out its API division, company now concentrating in Formulations,CRAMS and
Bio pharmaceuticals . Oncology, Gastroenterology,
Antidiabetic, Cardiovascular, Pain Management, and Gynecology are selected as key areas of interest.Of late
company’s Australian Subsidiary( Link HERE) is also started to perform . Since company’s
foreign operations are bigger than Indian business ,true picture is not
reflecting in its stand alone result.Its consolidated Sales was Rs.357 Cr where
sales from India was just Rs.156 Cr in FY 2012. In the just preceding two quarters,both Indian and foreign
operations are showing significant improvement.
This low priced scrip selected
mainly because of four reasons –
Pedigree of promoter,Fair chance for a Settlement of FCCB with favorable and practical terms and conditions , Improved financial
performance,promoter’s effort to increase stake through preferential issue and
open market purchase.We know last year’ fantastic turn around of another big
pharma company started only after a similar settlement of FCCB obligation.Let
us wait and see what will happen for this one.Those willing to take extreme
risk and enough patience may try it around CMP Rs.4/- .Stock listed both in NSE and BSE.
Link to company's old website (new one is under construction) - HERE
Link to Company's UK Subsidiary HERE
Link to Company's Australian Subsidiary HERE
Link to latest Annual Report HERE
Disc: I have vested interest in MPL
Dear Valuepick
ReplyDeleteMany of us would like to know the status of Vulcan.Is the present fall in price just because of the above mentioned reason or it has something to do with its fundamentals.I dont know why you are avoiding any comment. I have asked the question several times. Your guidance will be highly appreciated.
Regards
Suman
After the posting on Vulcan and its not so good result later I have replied many times about it.As you are aware ,due to poor capital expenditure happening in India in recent times order flow to all these companies at historical low.Company having many niche power saving technologies but share holder will get fruits only when there is improvement in capex cycle.
Deletei have been watching this stock for some weeks,but i didnt have that much courage as it looks like a penny stock.
ReplyDeleteWhen I started researching, I couldn’t find their website (VP provided link to old website). And VP now come with a fantastic research that nobody ever could find facts like it’s relationship with Glenmark..
Hats off VP.. I’m going to buy and forget.. this is gonna be next wockhard..
Another great pick VP sir.
ReplyDeleteThis one sounds similar in terms of what promoters of Sequent scientific are doing.How the true value of these shares are unleased soon.
:)
Mehul
dear VP,in2010you are skeptical about marks an manegment,now you tell percent of allocation.
ReplyDeleteI think ,what has happened between 2010 and 2013 already explained above.If the situation is same as in 2010 ,nothing interesting in it.No hesitation to recommend a BUY on a stock earlier recommended as SELL and vice-versa,but there should be some logical reasons.We are here to create wealth and not to prove we will not commit any mistake at any time.
Deletevpji at present your view in laopala.
ReplyDeleteHOLD
DeleteVP,
ReplyDeletedo you have any update on Granules expansion except that it may start in 1qtr of 2014.
Worried as the stock has corrected way beyond fundamentals.
Intending to avg but wanted to know if any change.
thnx
Not aware about any new negative developments.Why you are worried if you believe it corrected beyond fundamentals ,rather than taking it as an opportunity ?
DeleteDear VPji no doubt agree to your views mentioned in the post but what potential investors must know is when and how will the FCCB repayments be made? who are the stakeholders of the FCCB will they be given warrants, convertible preference shares?
ReplyDeleteAnother stock which has seen a huge battering although belonging to different industry is 3i infotech which also has been burdened in the past due to huge FCCB payments. The stock is currently trading at 6 rs and FCCB redemption will be made at 19 rs. As a potential investor it is visible that the repayments will be made higher than its face value and that too in 2014.
Hence sir wanted your view on this both for marksans and 3i
Dear Ravi
ReplyDeleteIn stock market we can take investment decisions based on various situations.Those who are not interested to take higher level of risk can take decision only after every information is available in public domain.Higher risk takers can take decisions based on possibilities and indications available.Normally in the first case risk and return will be low and in the second case it will be high.
If the answers for your above question is available in the public domain and it is a favorable one, price of stock will be at another range.Here in this case ,since promoter started open market purchase just after the decision to settle the FCCB , we can only assume it will be a good one for the company .This is only based on common sense and no guarantee for 100 % accuracy and if the promoter is purposefully trying to mislead potential investors we can't do anything .That's the risk of stock market and that's why I mentioned this stock is for high risk investors.In short ,risk and return in investing in stocks after knowing everything and based on assumptions and indications are entirely different .One should select a method based on own risk profile.
what is the future of schneider electric?
ReplyDeletedear valuepick,
ReplyDeleteyour view on shakti pump? After beating down..i want to buy..
nirav
Dear Venkat and Nirav
DeleteMany stocks from power,capital goods..etc are available at cheap valuation.But don't expect any miracle in short period due to bad condition of economy mainly on lower capex and policy initiatives.Significant gain is possible once there is a stable government post Parl.election.
Hi VPji,
ReplyDeleteI posted this question twice yesterday, but did not get published. Not sure if there is a problem with posting or you blocked it. Just trying my luck again. Please share your views on Selan. Is it a buy, hold, or sell at this price. Thanks a lot..
Regards,
Saj
One of the best stock from this sector ,may outperform once the sector re rates provided no negative policy changes towards private oil exploration cos.
DeleteSIR,
ReplyDeletePlease share your views on TIDE WATER OIL at CMP for long term investment.What are its growth prospects, fundamentals and their values for small investors.
Sorry ,not tracking Tide Water Oil.
Deletethis is my portfolio ....
ReplyDeletetata global bevarages, marksans pharma, jhs swegard, selan exploration, shree renuka sugar, shalimar paint, sequent, all shares were i purchased at very low price its a time to exit or hold please suggest me....whats the reason behind sharp falling of share price sequent anything wrong happen.....
Negative on JHS and not tracking Shalimar paint.Hold the rest.No new developments known to me about Sequent .Selling may be part of over all market mood in mid/small caps.
DeleteHi, have been writing to you for some time...but did not get any response. Please let me know your view on suzlon
ReplyDeleteOne may add with a 3+ year time horizon
DeleteA similar company in different sector is nitco tiles ltd. Details about debt restructuring not available.mcap of 39 cr. Here the value is more deep set( with real estate business). Hitting all time lows everyday. U previously said " a turnaround is not impossible" .. Any new prespective about this company?
ReplyDeleteAppointment of new CEO is a positive factor ,waiting for the details of CDR.
DeleteDear VP Sir
ReplyDeleteWish U your family & Our Blog readers A HAPPY HOLI
Thank you and wishing the same to all of my readers.
DeleteDear Sir,
ReplyDeleteCan you refresh your views on Kaveri Seeds. Its been holding well in this
mid cap carnage. Can it be bought for those who had missed it earlier?
Rgs
Jerry
Not advising a BUY at CMP
DeleteHi VP Sir,
ReplyDeleteCould you please tell me , What will be the impact for Balmer & lawre share price after issuing bonus shares.
Thanks,
Nagesh
Normally it will come down proportionately on XB
DeleteDear vp sir,
ReplyDeleteWhat is your opinion on varun shipping ? I am holding @ 35
Regards
Kailash
This entire sector is going through a tough period.No meaning in selling at this price hold and even buy in small lots if you have a 3 + years view.
DeleteWISHING A COLOURFUL HOLI TO DEAREST VALUEPICK AND ALL VISITORS.
ReplyDeleteHAPPY HOLI
Thank you Amit and wishing the same
DeleteDear VP, First of all a big "thank you" for your time. More than buy/sell calls - the way you do your research is a very good guidance for all of us to do more than just "number analysis" of a stock.
ReplyDeleteI have a question about the market outlook for next 3-5 years. I would like to hear your thoughts on which sectors to bet during times like today.
Assuming:
1)Indian economy to remain same or get worse in next 3-5 years.
2) Global economy grow moderately in next 3-5 years
3) Rupee gets to 60 levels in next 3-5 years
Under these conditions, which sector would you bet on for next 3-5 years?
I am not asking for a stock guidance but general focus areas when economy is not booming.
Dear Karma
DeleteI don't believe in the assumptions 1 and 3 .I think India will improve in the mentioned time period.
Dear vp
ReplyDeletewish you and ur happy holi.
kindly throw some light on avanti feeds, is it worth looking at cmp.
Best regards
Expecting some tough times for the industry in near future.
DeleteAny clue on terms of settlement for FCCB of Marksans?
ReplyDeleteThey don't make a full disclosure to BSE?
They only mentioned reached and agreement ,expecting the details soon.
DeleteDear vp sir,
ReplyDeleteNowadays i am receiving mail's stating that become a member of Zurker(social networking site), so that virtual shares will be credited, if you have any idea please advice me about this sir, because i trust only you.
D.Sathishkumar.
Frankly speaking ,I have no idea about it.
DeleteThere are No Doubt Economy is going through very rough patch! Global Recession hits quite hard; Strong Economical Measures should be taken by Govt in order stablize economy with effective manner!
ReplyDeleteMay I know your viewabout mahindra finance.
ReplyDeleteSwathi
Sir please update about Aries , I am holding at 62.
ReplyDeleteHi VP, Right now Marksans has crossed Rs.10 and in UC... Is it still a good buy at this price.
ReplyDeletei have abt 20k shares of marksans pharma @ an average of rs 7.5.accumulated @ various time.whats your view on marksans now.after their result and getting out of BFIR. i am planning to hold it for long term.please share your advice.
ReplyDeleteExcellent Pick Sir.
ReplyDelete