1) While preparing the previous report on Nath Biogene , its December quarters numbers were not available. Considering the June quarter result and the general trend in seed industry ,I indicated the possibility of some loss in September and December quarter and projected an EPS of Rs.9-10 in full year FY 2013-14. Now company declared its nine month result which is far better than expected .Based on this performance revising, the expected full year EPS to Rs.12-14 .
2) Post recommendation this stock traded only on upper circuit except for a single day in BSE ie,on 14/02/2012 .On that day stock came down even near to the lower circuit. It is known from bulk deal data ,One promoter group entity bought 50000 shares on 14/02 @ Rs 66.20 from open market.( Link HERE)
Link to old posting HERE
Disc: I have vested interest in NBIL
2) Post recommendation this stock traded only on upper circuit except for a single day in BSE ie,on 14/02/2012 .On that day stock came down even near to the lower circuit. It is known from bulk deal data ,One promoter group entity bought 50000 shares on 14/02 @ Rs 66.20 from open market.( Link HERE)
Link to old posting HERE
Disc: I have vested interest in NBIL
Dear Value-pick,
ReplyDeleteThanks for your hardwork on finding these hidden gems. Now Nath Bio Genes is trading at INR 80. Do you think still we can BUY it?
Regards,
Murali Krishnan
Q4 last year the company made a PROFIT .... so full year EPS should be in the Rs 18 - 20 range in my opinion. To be conservative though, let us stick to a Rs 17 figure.
ReplyDeleteOne misconception all of us have been labouring under is that the company makes losses in quarters other than Q1. This is probably not the case , though the misunderstanding is natural :-
Actually, the reason for the numbers to come down for Full Year vis-a-vis Q1 is because of Sales Returns. The company declares unaudited figures for Q1, but the return of seeds happens in following quarters, mostly in Q2 .
These are booked against Q1 figures itself, but since the company does not declare revised/audited Q1 figures , and since we haven't had access to qtrly numbers of previous years, we automatically assumed that the company was making losses in subsequent quarters. Actually it is the Q1 figures that are undergoing revision.
Above understanding is gathered from ringing the company last week. Next year company may consider declaring revised/audited figures for Q1 post accounting for sales returns that trickle in post 30th June, to avoid confusion. They seem open to suggestions & inputs from stakeholders.
Thanks for your efforts and inputs.
ReplyDeleteon 14/2/2014 I could get 300 shares at Rs63/30 and because of above information and analysis you have given I may not sell these for next 5years. Thanks a lot VP jee
ReplyDeleteI am try to place order for the market price through SBI DMART Account for 40 number. My Order is accepted but never traded.means some think wrong in my order or the stock itself not available.. Need you help.
ReplyDeleteI don't think anything technically wrong ,may be due to absence of sellers
DeleteHatsup Zeenutji for clearing my doubht regarding the Published results..
ReplyDeleteVPji, whats ur present call on ur old recom. Orchid chem
Rgds
Hoe can one purchase this stock ? After expiry of orders I place order for next day as early as possible , around 6 pm, but don't get share.
ReplyDeleteI m using ICICI direct . Is there any other way to place order for next day. When I see best 5 bids then I find no order for next day ( at next day UC price ) . WHats matter plz explain I will be very thankful of you.
Should I change trading platform from ICICI direct to any other ?
Technical matters may different from software to software.
DeleteSame issue here with ICICIDirect. Buy Orders placed on this stock expires without being executed. May be the order was not executed because there are no sellers.
DeleteI have observed in last 4 days at 9am when market opens for pre trade more than 130 orders for over 1,35,000 shares get entered.IF DURING THE DAY ONLY ABOUT 12000 shares are traded,only whose orders are in first in the Q get executed and there is no supply for others. So it is not fault of ICICI direct.
DeleteDear VP - not sure i understand why you are taking the full year 2013-14 EPS to be Rs. 12-14 when June 2013 EPS itself is Rs. 22. Please calrify. Regards.
ReplyDeleteJune 2013 figure is unaudited .... Seeds start coming back by end of sowing season .... so June figure undergoes revision (comes down).
DeleteSo you need to see the 9-month figure , which is available on Nath Bio-Gene website. 9-months EPS is Rs 17.75.
Last year Q4 yielded a small profit of 1 Cr or so. Assuming Q4 this year too is also profitable like last year, i expect Full year EPS to be in Rs 18-20 range)
As I mentioned in my earlier posting Seed business is a seasonal one.For the nine months Company reported Rs.17 + EPS ,I took an extremely conservative stand due to possible sales return .No need to worry ,it may surpass my expectation in full year.I took the worst case.
Deletesir now I think looking at company and management record one should exit and take profit home, sir it was a grt pick between 30 to 40
ReplyDeleteI have contacted with the management several times in last two weeks .I believe they have changed a lot in case of their attitude towards minority share holders and improved significantly over these ten years . If your belief is like you mentioned above , never buy the stock .Just ignore. My conviction may not save your money ,buy any stock if and only if you are fully convinced.
DeleteWhen stocks hit continuous upper or downward circuits, one has to be 1st or 2nd in the queue to have a hope of order execution. In practical terms, your order needs to hit the stock exchange almost instantaneously. This is not possible in online trading systems, wherein all the orders are queued & then hit the exchange a few seconds after opening. It requires a BOLT/ODIN terminal that is connected directly to the exchange via V-Sat or whatever. So unless you have a broker with such a connection,who is willing to place a "fast entry" for you, it is not possible to get these shares unless the circuit opens. Which day it will open is difficult to predict. Nath Bio was available on LC for few days on BSE & thereafter when it started hitting upper circuits, it opened only once or twice. You will need to buy it on such days.
ReplyDeleteDear Valuepuck,
ReplyDeleteWhat is your take on Monsanto India?
Any specific reason being MNC company its valued less than Kaveri Seeds.
Regards,
Vikas
Parent company of Monsanto introducing all new varieties through their unlisted private subsidiary .This may be a reason.
DeletePlease advise. Tried to place an Internet order through HDFC Securities and got a message that Nath Bio-Genes is under TT segment at BSE. Even though I wanted Market order, the system didn't allow me-it went back to "limit" order. Tried to place an order around 2.30 PM.
ReplyDeleteCan I place an order before the market opens at 9.15 AM to buy Nath? What is the best way to buy some shares? Thanks.
similar happened with me as well..
DeleteI think, this is bcoz there are no seller in the market & buyers are raising the offered rate to the maximum possible circuit limit & there itself, it's getting closed till the next day.
even though if u try to place order before market opens, it'll not get exicuted till there are some seller to offer u the stock at ur quoted rates.
Hello Value Pick,
ReplyDeleteI bought the stock at 90. I guess I am an unfortunate one. Now its trading at 80. I believe it will go down even further to normalize with the NSE scrip. Should I hold on to it? Are there any expectation for it to go even more up than 90?
Thanks
If you have no conviction and faith in any company ,it is better to exit.
DeleteHi VP,
ReplyDeleteI had a basic question, I guess the R&D in both Pakistan and Phillipens is done through its sister concern Global Transgenes ltd, So wanted to know does Nath Bio Gene holds any stake in Global , I could not find any in its annual report, and it shows it as an Associate. So if at all the commercialization of hybrid bt does happen, I am not able to understand what benifit does Nath bio will have since revenues from commercialization wont come to nath but to Global.
Outside India R&D is jointly conducted by Nath Bio,Global Transgene and Cotton Development Authority-Dept of Agriculture
DeleteDear VP Sir,
ReplyDeletei am a new to stock market and i am quite impressed to your stock knowledge in financial market.I am interested in this new seed company of Nath Biogene. Kindly suggest me whether i should buy it at current price? & time frame of investment.
with kind regards.
Dear VP Friend,
ReplyDeleteOverwhelmed by your knowledge sharing initiative. What do you make of sudden large increase in Pledge of Shares by Nath Bio-Genes promoters? Were you expecting a loss in Q4 results? Annual results have been impressive though. Will wait for the Cash Flow Statements to check if they generate meaningful cash from operations. Being a seed company, we can expect a good Q1 I presume.