Saturday, April 12, 2014

PANACEA BIOTEC LTD - REPEAT







No introduction about Panacea Biotec is necessary to my regular readers.We have discussed more than once about the reasons for a sharp fall in its share price from  Rs.400 level to below Rs.100 level. Panacea Biotec – the second largest vaccine maker in our country – passes through  some tough business environment   during past 3-4 years.Earlier many of its vaccines excluded from  the WHO per-qualification criteria  and debt related issues resulted in erosion of more than 50% of its peak net worth. Now ,after many quality related inspections  UNICEF permitted the company to resume the supply of vaccines. (  Read details HERE) . On the other side company is in the process of reducing its debt burden and already admitted for a CDR.I believe ,this is the turn around time for Panacea Biotec and the right entry point too .Company is expected to report better numbers from this quarter onwards and strongly recommending to enter in Panacea at CMP of Rs.107 with a medium to long term view. Stock listed in both exchanges .

Link to Company Website HERE



Disc : I have vested interest in Panacea Biotec 

63 comments :

  1. sir, what is your view on atul auto?
    we need your valuable comment on this counter.

    -Rahul verma

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Atul Auto already turned as a multi bagger for my readers .Stock recommended @ Rs.71 which is currently trading around Rs.357 .There was one rights issue at lower rate and one bonus issue after my recommendation .At current price it is a HOLD for me.

      For old recommendation check the below link

      http://value-picks.blogspot.in/2010/06/atul-auto-shining-in-crowd.html

      Delete
  2. Sir, Liberty Shoes as recommended by you, turned out as a dark horse. Currently trading at 162 and results to be announced on April 17th, will it still be a good buy at CMP ?

    With regards,

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Liberty recommended @ Rs.95 and again @ Rs.112. It is a HOLD for me at CMP. of Rs 160 +

      Delete
  3. Sir I have taken share of aksh fiber at 17 rs. Should hold or exit. Tell me

    ReplyDelete
  4. Dear Sir,
    There are few recommandation which have not performed after your recommandation you asked to exit but for Panacea Biotec which you have
    recommanding for last more than one year three times so kindly inform why you are still bullish on this company.
    Regards
    Jitendra

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Dear Jitendra

      Let us wait and see :)

      Delete
  5. Whats ur view on saksoft

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. As of now not much change in opinion .But if the rupee appreciate further post election outcome ,we should think again if any change in opinion is necessary.

      Delete
  6. Dear sir,

    The company cash flow is terrible for last 3 years...only way it will rise is takeover by Serum (reverse merger) or take over by some MNC. Let us wait and see :)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Not only cash flow but everything about this company was terrible in past three years and thats why it is trading at this price. When everything was fine before 6-7 years its price was in the range of Rs 400-600

      Delete
    2. The price should have been much down like Orchid but since there is no floating stock in the market, no real selling came below 100. Any how this is plus point when good time starts, no floating stock so easy to rise, only problem is who will buy..MF are absent and so all depend on management and Serum..wait and see :}

      Delete
    3. In one sense ,absence itself is big positive.

      Delete
  7. have u bought big qty or setting with operatotr.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. My buy quantity depends on available fund with me. If you are an operator I shall contact with you whenever a start such a business.

      Delete
    2. It is unfortunate to have such responses.

      VP sir's selfless efforts should be appreciated.

      Delete
    3. common dude!!!!
      you must be new here, pls explore the site before leaving such comments.
      vp sir don't worry abt people like these, we appreciate your hard work.

      Delete
  8. Value Pick is doing systematic company research and putting it in public domain and history shows public is benefited. why such comments like front running and setting with operator...if some one is good say some good unless having some contrary evidence at hand. change your thoughts...for profit

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. than why he is not recommending stock at market hours .....have you any resonable answer than only tell.....

      Delete
    2. My stock suggestions are not for those who need only the name of company as 'TIPS' to make some quick bucks over night .

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    3. The aim is to get a 2-4 times return on the stock (as it is turnaround), this will involve time period of 2-3-4 years, so everyone is having opportunity to buy such stock, there will be always corrections and one can buy. Panacea was earlier recommended and it went down by Rs 10-20, one should follow and buy in such dips/corrections. One thing is sure that this site is not a gift site but a good help in the process of investing. This you will realize over period of time. Only patience is the friend of investor, one must have the stomach for stocks and not only the resources to buy it.

      Delete
  9. Is cravatex still a buy ?

    ReplyDelete
  10. Is there hope for 3I Infotech, Allied digital, edservsoft

    ReplyDelete
  11. Sir,
    If Rupee appreciates from here do you see Panacea under performing as focus may shift to Infra and Power sector

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Turn around time is the best time to make money in stocks irrespective of sector preference.

      Delete
  12. Dear VP,
    Dolly Khanna has purchased another 33606 shares in liberty shoes as per latest shareholding data. Looks like something big here.
    Also, she has purchased 1% stake in Nilkamal. Do you see it as a value buy?

    Regards,
    Pratul

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Already expressed my view on both Nilkamal and Wimplast in the below link :

      http://value-picks.blogspot.in/2011/07/nilkamal-ltd-wim-plast-ltd-due-for-re.html

      No change in opinion about Nilkamal ,Since Wimplast appreciated substantially not recommending to buy that at CMP.

      Delete
    2. Dear Pratul & VP sir, how to find out at what price and date Dolly or some else enter in a particular stock. Agree that i can get that info in Shareholding pattern but my concern abou tis Price & date of purchase?

      Thnaks,
      Mayur

      Delete
    3. VP Sir,
      Wimplast & Nilkamal recommeded by u at same time at 202 & 264 levels respectively; where wimplast has given 3 fold returns by now, Nilkamal still trading at lower levels...any reasons for this underperformance although both being in same sector..??
      wud appreciate if u can throw some light here..
      Thanks!!

      Delete
  13. Sir, would like you to revisit Sabero Organics and let us know if its a BUY at cmp120? again?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Company already decided to merge with Coromandel

      Delete
  14. Sir, Am a follower of yr site and now having fund with me. from the below which one you prefer first. nathbio, arrocoated products and caplinpoint pharma. thanks in advance for your liking.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Stocks should be bought when they are available at attractive valuation and not when we have funds.If there is no opportunity available when we have funds ,we should wait for such opportunities and utilise it as and when the same available.Normally ,stocks will be available at cheap valuation when there is full of skepticism in the market .Then you should show the guts to buy quality business .In practice ,people always run away when such opportunities are available .

      Delete
    2. Sir, thanks for ur reply. I understood yr views in correct perspective. Though am asking the same with a different angle. arrocoated and nathbio did not grow much in terms of a long term view. In that sense which one you prefer at this point of time.Am asking the question strictly with a long duration. eargly waiting yr reply.

      Delete
    3. Arrow moved from 12 to 60 and nath from 66 to 100 in short term. Their long term value only vp knows. Congrats vp.....in advance.....

      Delete
    4. What is long term in your version ?

      Delete
    5. Sir, Am the one who asked the question above. In my thinking,if a company seems in a growth trajectory, until and unless we seem a trend reversal, it is in a state of hold for an investor.for eg,havells India was at 175/- 13 years back.It rewarded 3 bonuses and one FV split means one share at that time is 16 now and it is around 900/- plus now.Still it is in a growing path. If you are not reluctant pease make your choice public.Thanks in advance.

      Delete
  15. Orchid chemicals, Suzlon, Panacea are some of the few shares which is turning around now. This is the time to grab if you have conviction to make a killing. Most of the present prices will be history soon. Sulekha

    ReplyDelete
  16. Sir why u r not showing any interest in A and B group comanies as well companies in NIFTY pls.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. There is lot of people in the market to show interest in A group stocks ,so I am not interested in that category.I have recommended many 'B' group stocks in the past .I believe money making opportunities are higher in a business when it is at the growing stage and not in the matured business .( Sure ,risk is bit high)

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    2. Fluctuation are steady or declining. Hardly growing even after good results. Correct vp???

      Delete
    3. I don't think it is correct. Company not reported any good number in recent past . I think ,you are referring the last quarter result .But it is good only prima facie , and in reality it seems improved only due to change in the calculation of depreciation

      Delete
  17. vpji,
    I bought camlin fine at 23(after split) last year, it was your old recommendation in 2011, now its going around 56 what is your view on camlin fine?
    anyway thank you for doing this wonderful job, I can only say a thanks because you are invisible like spiderman :)

    Regards,
    Jay.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Stock already appreciated 5 times .( Recommended before stock split around Rs.55) .At CMP neutral on it.

      Delete
  18. I had bought MRPL @46-47 when I read about it "Powering MRPL". It is under ONGC management ....in July 2013, MRPL moved from using 70% capacity to 100% :-). ...it is expected to report a gross refining margin (GRM) of around $6 bbl this quarter as against $2 bbl in same period last year, when it reported loss. this will translate into positive earnings this year. Besides this its Phase III expansion in first half of FY15 would further boost margins. So hold on ...Buy Enjoy ..may be along term bet for best returns ..
    .in last a Big Thanks for such wonderful write up VP SIR .. WONDERLA HOLIDAYS IPO ...FROM V-GUARD ...DUM RAKHTA HAI :-)

    ReplyDelete
  19. Sir, Arrow Coated has come out with fabulous results for Q3. Considering JV with a Japanese Co. as well as niche player in the segment as very frequently told by you will it be a still good buy at CMP of 62. Results to be announced by this month end.

    With regards,

    ReplyDelete
  20. Sir management of liberty shoes is still confident of touching 500 cr sales this f.y. after amalgamation of its subsidiary which will increase its sales by 40%. If think that after results on 17 apr its price will shoot up to 200 in short term. Sir do you agree with me?

    ReplyDelete
  21. That is what I mentioned when both these stocks were available at cheap rate . I don't know why a section of readers getting conviction only after sharp rise in stock price !!!!

    ReplyDelete
  22. Dear VP,

    Have been silently following you for a month now, and I feel most of your picks have done good with some of them with more than 100% return in very short span of time. KUDOS !

    Although I am not able to go in as much details as you must have researched, I still try to go through the financials and gauge past growth in Revenue, EBIDTA, Profits and Margins vis-a-vis current Debt Level, available Cash, Asset Size and Market Multiple ratios. I also feel that I have missed the better timings to buy most of your advised stocks.

    However, if I had rs. 20K to invest in 1-3 stocks with decently cheap valuation (wrt forward prices) and very strong fundamentals which ones would you filter from your advised stocks?

    Regards

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Cheap valuation never means lower price. One stock may cheaply valued even @ Rs.10000 but another may richly valued even @ Rs.5 . What is in it is more important.

      Delete
  23. Sir,

    Happy Vishu.

    Required your advice. Can One enter Page Industries & Hawkins at CMP for long term.

    ReplyDelete
  24. sir,
    it seems your recommendation are now being taken as instant profit making tool,which is quiet evident from the fact that panacea is up by almost 40% in just two days and panasonic energy is at the same reco price.you need to do something to change the mind set of your readers.
    panacea never moved so much untill you posted a repeat post
    regards

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. A section of investors will express their anger if any recommended stock is slow moving .At the same time ,if another stock is moving fast, another group will criticize that also . I am not the one who control the stocks in a market where lakhs and lakhs of investors and traders are participating.I can express only my opinion and beyond that stock price movement is decided by ' Mr Market'

      Delete
    2. Dear VP
      I am following this site for almost 1 year & i have already wrote here about my entry in stock market and how i lost by paying as TIPS.First of all I like to thank God for showing me this site to recover my loss, to Learn & Earn more & more about stocks.
      Almost all the stocks recommended by you are in profit for me except very few. Your MOTO " Patience Pays" helps me a lot. 5 years in stock Market I didn't make money but 1 year is a great year for me. Thanks a lot for your help & support for small investors like us. Expecting more & more from you dear friend.
      May God Help you Long & Healthy Life.

      Delete
  25. I purchased today Panacea 73 shares at 158 for delivery. Little bit worried after seeing the graph at moneycontrol..

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. My recommendation is for investing in businesses not in charts.

      Delete
  26. Dear sir

    This is first time i came acorss your blog and found it very informative and you have tremendous people following you for good sense.Congratulation for this you are doing really great job for small investor like us.
    Appreciate if you can response to my query; I have gone through your recommended script and found that all your script almost trading at more than twice price from the level you recommended.Now for me can you please suggest me some scripts where you see upside remains.
    I normally go long in any good script and can hold upto 5 year.

    Thanks
    Arya

    ReplyDelete

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