Saturday, February 16, 2013

ANIL LTD - BUY





We have already discussed another stock from this same sector – Sukhjit Starch-around Rs.169 ( Old posting HERE) which reached a high of Rs.275 and currently trading around Rs.215.As in the case of Sukhjit ,ANIL LTD is a large listed player in starch and starch derivatives industry. This company belongs to Ahmedabad based ANIL group having diverse interest in Biotechnology,Food Processing ..etc.Company  manufacturing Native Starch, Chemical Starch, Modified Starches, Dextrins, Dextrose Monohydrate, Liquid Glucose, Corn Syrup, and Sorbitol ..etc. These products are mainly used in Textile,Pharmaceutical, Paper and Food & Beverages industries. ANIL exporting many of its value added products to various overseas markets.Recently company established an SPV to set up a mega food park in Vadodara ,Gujarat.Growth of user industries and price flactuation of raw material is points to note.For the past few months raw material price was high due to lower mansoon in last season.But company could report satisfactory performance with higher top line even its margin impacted due to this factor.Company reported a turnover of Rs.226 Cr v/s Rs.158 cr in December quarter alone .Net profit was flat around Rs.13-14 Cr .For the last financial year company reported a  turnover of Rs.645 Cr ,net profit of Rs.50 Cr and an EPS of Rs.52 /- .At current market price of Rs.199 , Anil is trading at a P/E multiple of just 4 which is at the lower end for a dominent player in this industry.A better mansoon in India for the next season  or an improved out look of corn production in international market  will help the company to reduce its raw material cost.At current market price I feel there is value in it.Recommending an entry for long term investors @ CMP RS.199 and any dip due to over all sell off in mid caps (if any) may take as a chance to add more .


Link to Company website HERE

Tuesday, February 12, 2013

HIKAL LTD - BOOK PROFIT

I have recommended a BUY on Hikal Ltd  @ Rs.269/- on March 18,2012.( For old Posting Click HERE) and requested to book partial profit around Rs.450 ( HERE) .After December quarter result currently it is trading around Rs.400 /- ,now requesting to sell the balance at current level and re enter later if it falls around Rs.300-320 .

Monday, February 11, 2013

BAMBINO AGRO / VIMAL OIL AND FOODS - RESULT UPDATES.








For the quarter ended December 2012, Bambino Agro reported a sales of Rs.56 Cr v/s Rs.54 Cr and a net profit of Rs.1.22 Cr v/s Rs.1.1 Cr compared with same period last year. This can be interpreted in either way .Critics may argue ,Company's Sales down in December quarter compared with just preceding September quarter .Even if there is some truth in it ,when we check the past sales trend of the company in detail ,sales figure is always higher in their September quarter for the past many years. From a loss of Rs.81 lakhs reported in December quarter company back to black in latest quarter with a profit of Rs.1.22 Cr. In my previous posting on this stock I clearly mentioned the attitude of promoters is the most important factor deciding the future of this stock.(Old posting HERE). If we read between lines ,I feel the two points which we get from today's BSE Submission is encouraging and pointing to the right direction.It is clear from the data that the promoters again hiked their stake in latest December quarter after hiking it in September.Now it is inching to the maximum permissible level of 75% .Another point is ,company today announced its plan to shift one of its  manufacturing facility  from Hyderabad to Indore.( Company operating more than one plant in HYD) .This will help the company to produce products from strategically located plants across India ( Hyderabad,Indore and Gurgaon ) .This will also help the company to save logistic costs especially at a time company started to pay much attention beyond southern markets.It also help to mitigate the power shortage related issues prevailing in AP.What I feel is, at last by now promoters  started to show some interest to grow the business of this company  and started to initiate  some logical thinking for that purpose .If it is so ,there may be even some dramatic improvement is possible with a merger of other group companies with the listed one  in future ..Recommending to HOLD the stock.

Disc:I have vested interest in BAIL

VIMAL OIL AND FOOD

Reported sharp improvement in latest quarter as follows:

Recommending a HOLD

For more details about this company check previous posting HERE
Disc:I have vested interest in VOF

AHLCON PARENTERALS / POLY MEDICURE - UPDATES

AHLCON PARENTERALS (INDIA) LTD


This stock recommended @ Rs.64 which is currently trading around Rs.360 /- ( Old posting HERE) reported better numbers in December Quarter under the new owners.Sales increased from Rs.20 Cr to Rs.27 Cr and net profit improved from Rs.1.68 to Rs.4.27 Cr .Those still holding this stock can continue to HOLD it .

POLY MEDICURE LTD

This stock recommended @ Rs.65 ( Adjusted to 1:1 bonus post recommendation) ( Old posting HERE) today hits its life time high @ Rs.490 .In  December Quarter company reported more than 100 % jump in bottom line .Those still holding this stock can continue to HOLD it .




Saturday, February 9, 2013

THE CURIOUS CASE OF LACTOSE INDIA Ltd.










Many of our investors are vulnerable to market moods and taking decisions  based on crowd mentality mainly due of lack of conviction in stocks they are interested .Many of us  are only  investors in stock markets and not in companies or businesses and our investment decisions are subject to the opinion of the anchors of popular business channels.If we want to get more conviction we should spend more time to study the business,management ,future plans..etc..etc  of companies rather than spending  full time in front of the trading terminal.I am not sure how many of us are at least periodically looking into the published results of companies in which we are invested and reviewing our investment decisions based on company’s working or its future prospects.Percentage of  informed  investors are very small and most of us are interested to know the answer for only one question in every morning – Which stock will go up ‘TODAY’ ? .On a net basis ,result of such an action ( I don’t think it can be called as ‘Investment’) will be always  negative or negligible.On the other side ,there is no meaning in expecting same kind of return from each and every stock and should not hesitate to book loss if we feels  there is something wrong happening in a company and should not take loss booking is a failure of an investor .In the case of majority of retail investors the major reason for failure in stock market investing is their unwillingness to book loss .What I try to convey is only one point – if you are taking investment in stocks seriously you should spend more time to learn about the company and not to watch the minute by minute price movement of the stock of that company.



Let us come to the point mentioned in the headline of this posting.Lactose India is a small,unknown and unnoticed company listed in BSE( CODE -524202).This company operating in the niche market of manufacturing food and pharmaceutical grade lactose.Company’s turnover jumped from Rs.27 Cr in FY 2011 to over Rs.40 Cr in FY 12 .Even if many of you are not interested in the footnote of published results, I am reproducing below  the footnote attached with the September quarter result of this company  .( Click on the figure to read )








                                                    Let us take the point No.3 alone which indicating company received an amount of over Rs.10 Cr from a company named Kerry Ingredients Pvt Ltd .Lactose claiming that ,an amount of Rs.7.7 Cr out of this contribution is  meant for expansion of production capacity and balance Rs.3.3 Cr as an advance for goods to be supplied to Kerry. It is really an interesting deal especially at a time many companies are trying hard to find some customers for their products .We should note another important point that the amount Rs.10 cr was  sufficient to bought out this entire  company itself (Its market cap was below Rs.10 cr at the time of this deal ,which is now Rs.12 Cr).Just because of curiosity I checked the identity of Kerry Ingredients Pvt Ltd and realized that this company is owned by Kerry Group of Ireland ( Details HERE) which is a leading company supplying food and pharma ingredients to world market.Kerry is a listed company in Dublin  Stock exchange and its common stock is trading at a price of €38.10 (approximately Rs.2740) . To my surprise, In one of their filing to Irish stock exchange Kerry informed that  they have already acquired Lactose India Ltd !! .For  your reference ,I am reproducing the mentioned  portion of their investor presentation below :




An Irish publication named  ‘Irish Examiner ‘ also published this news item in their business section.( Link HERE) . More clues about this acquisition is available in the latest annual report of Kerry which is available in their website. Why Lactose India so far not disclosed this deal to BSE is the moot question. There may be many reasons and one possibility is like this .The Indian promoters are currently holding close to 29 % stake only in this company.If they have some plans to hike their stake before offering stake to Kerry ,disclosing the deal before hiking stake will force them to shell out more to hike stake.As per SEBI rules (link HERE ) pricing of preferential allotment depends on a market price linked pricing formula.This may be a reason for not  disclosing  the deal so far ,and theoretically speaking I don’t think such a disclosure is mandatory  till the company openly  accepting they have entered in such a deal and allotting shares to Kerry .Even if some one complaining to authorities for not disclosing price sensitive information , I am not sure what will happen if company plainly deny such a deal and argue that the news items published in a foreign country is not known to them and it is false) Anyway  I  strongly feel , as Kerry mentioned in their filing to Irish Stock Exchange, at least Lactose already reached in an agreement to sell majority stake to Kerry and it will be disclosed in due course.In an interesting development which we can read along with this story ,day before yesterday there was an EGM for Lactose India to approve the allotment of 1134000 warrants to promoters @ Rs.12.5 which will be converted into one equity shares each.On conversion of these warrants Indian promoters stake will be improved to 39.In last year annual report company mentioned it plan to hike its production capacity 4 fold from current 3000 Mt per year to 12000 MT per year.This massive capacity expansion may be backed by some assurance from Kerry Group.In September quarter (December quarter result not published so far) Company reported a net profit of Rs.42 lakhs v/s Rs.11 lakhs in June quarter.Currently stock is trading around Rs.17 which may sharply re-rate even from current level  if something happen as we expected.Anyway ,something is really cooking in it ,when it will be served to the public is a question.Since this information is based on data available in public domain and some assumptions ,I am not recommending it but only sharing some information  available with me .Take a decision after own due diligence .Lactose India is listed only in BSE and trading around Rs.17

Link to Kerry Group's website  HERE

Link to latest Annual Report of Lactose India HERE

Disc : Holding few shares. 

Friday, February 8, 2013

AARVEE DENIM / PANACEA BIOTEC / INDIA GELATINE - RESULT UPDATE

Aarvee Denim recommended @ Rs.76 currently trading @ Rs.74.50 reported lower than expected numbers in recent quarter.Since the company could not exploit the current positive situation in denim industry ,recommending to exit from this stock for the time being.

Panacea Biotec reported a turnover of Rs.166 Cr v/s Rs.153 Cr and reduced  net loss from Rs.72 Cr to Rs.62 Cr .This stock recommended @ Rs.108 and currently trading @ Rs.130. The mentioned positive factors are expected to reflect from next quarter onwards .Hold this stock.

India Gelatine recommended @ Rs.66 and CMP Rs.81 reported 180% increase in net profit .Once it  recommended  to book profit above Rs.100 ,those  still holding it HOLD it now and book profit above Rs.100.

Tuesday, February 5, 2013

B S LTD ( FORMERLY B S TRANSCOMM) -SELL

This stock initially recommended @ Rs.217 (HERE) and again requested to average @ Rs.146 (HERE). Currently it is trading around Rs.338. Requesting to SELL AND EXIT from this stock.

Monday, February 4, 2013

LA-OPALA RG- RESULT UPDATES

LA-OPALA RG Ltd

This stock initially recommended around Rs.60 ( Old posting HERE) which is currently trading around Rs.250/- .Today company reported its December quarter result .Sales improved by 80% and bottom line reported a robust growth of more than 130% .Company's performance is far beyond expectation and already recorded  the expected full year EPS in just 9 months itself.Recommending to HOLD the stock ,reasonable upside expected even from current level.

Saturday, February 2, 2013

VIMAL OIL AND FOODS - REPEAT



 
This stock earlier recommended in 2010 and appreciated reasonably over this period.You may ask why this small and relatively unknown company again near at its all time high price especially even  it belongs to a boring industry like –Edible Oil Manufacturing.This time it is due of some interesting developments  in this company .When I recommend it in 2010 ,  even if its name indicates some activities directly  related with food ,it was mainly an Edible oil maker .As you are aware Edible oil is an volume driven industry where profit margins are very thin.After hiking their stake through a preferential issue and an open offer , now the promoters are moving in the right direction.Slowly they are now transforming this company from mere  an edible oil producer to a food company  in true sense .Leveraging on its  good brand image and large marketing network across India  ( except south) which consists  of 50 depots, 1500 distributors and over 5 lakhs retail outlets  company now moving into value added products.
                                           As I mentioned earlier , this company  is a Gujarat based Edible oil maker producing Groundnut ,Mustrad,Sunflower,Cotton Seed, Soya bean ,Rice bran and Corn oil under ‘Vimal’ Brand.Since my readers are already aware about its edible oil business through my earlier posting  ,I am not repeating it here.Let us go through the recent developments .

                                                       First of all ,In last week company decided to subscribe 31,20,000 equity shares of Vimal Dairy ltd – a company owned by the same promoters. By this purchase Vimal Oil will hold 52 % stake in Vimal Dairy and it will be a Subsidiary of the listed entity.Vimal Dairy is one of the largest  private sector dairy in Gujarat  with a milk processing capacity of two lakh litre  milk per day.Company is now planning to hike its capacity from 2 lakh LPD to 5 lakh LPD in near future.Considering the valuations of certain deals materialized in dairy industry in recent past this valuation is reasonable .Along with milk ,company selling many value added products like Cheese,Paneer,Butter ,Flavoured milk and Ice Cream under ‘Vimal’ brand.( Link to Company’s Ice Cream division HERE)

 
In another development ,Vimal is now planning to introduce dairy alternatives to target people who are not in a position to use dairy items due to health issues related with life style diseases. Company  will launch tofu to substitute paneer, soya cheese and rice cheese to replace cheese, margarine to replace butter, soya cheese spreads against cheese spread and soya mozzarella against mozzarella.Out of this margarine is already introduced under the brand ‘Vimal lite’. Market for these type products are now limited in India but growing at good pace. Health conscious life style will increase the penetration of these products going forward and the sales trend we are experiencing in developed countries are extremely positive for these items.

In another forward step ,recently Vimal  decided  to enter in the snacks and frozen food category .Company will launch more than 20 snacks products under ‘Vimal Fresh’ brand in another three months.An investment of with a cost of Rs. 100 Cr is implementing  for this division.Frozen food brands will be launched by 2015.( Read latest update  HERE) .There is lot of opportunities as well as challenges in both these categories.Company already established good network even in remote villages for its milk collection and edible oil selling .This will be an added advantage for its new ventures.
Share holding and Financials.
                                               Company having an equity base of Rs.11.5 Cr .Out of these almost 75% stake is held by promoters and  related parties (including 5% shown in public category) .Not a single share pledged so far .It is interesting to see that even this company having an equity of Rs.11.5 Cr its entire shares are held by just 2000+ share holders .About the financials ,Vimal posted a turnover of Rs.1248 Cr , a net profit of Rs.6 Cr  and an EPS of Rs.5.5in last FY.Even its cash flow is not very robust ,company never skipped dividend for the last 13 years.  

I believe, company is now planning to reduce the quantum of  edible oil business  mainly due to its low margin nature  and mounting sundry debtors  position and decidedt to concentrate in  high margin ( compared with edible oil) value added food products.For this expansion we can  expect some fund raising  in near future . Its  recent decision to take stake in dairy business is a step to increase the quality of its balance sheet for this purpose . Purely on financial parameters, this stock is not suitable for low risk investors.But I think the promoters realised the bad shape of their present business and balance sheet  and started treatment at the right time.These type business acumen and flexibility is very important for the success of any business.I believe ,leveraging on their vast experience and already established infrastructure  and marketing network  Vimal will become a food company in true sense in another few years .Since my above opinion is based only on  some assumptions  and readings from the body language of the promoters ,some of their recent decisions and not on any numbers,I am not recommending this stock for those who are die-hard fans of investment theories ,equations  and ratios  but only for very high risk kind  investors.CMP is Rs.109 /-


Link to Company Website HERE 

Link to latest Annual Report HERE

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