Wednesday, May 5, 2010
NILE LTD - WATCHOUT THE RESULT
I have covered NILE Ltd on March 7 th @Rs.115 /- Company is going to declare its last qtr and full year results on 8th May .Company has two divisions viz Glass lined equipment and Lead. Company is making Lead through re-cycling method.Last year company posted a loss of Rs.2 crore due to lower price of lead in international as well as local market.After the revival in lead prices , NILE has posted a profit of 4.34 Cr for the nine month period ended in Dec.2009..On an equity base of just 3 Cr ,nine month EPS is Rs.14.5.If there is no negative surprise from the glass lined division, NILE is expected to post strong results.Comparing to last year ,commencement of its new plant at Tirupathi with 20000 tonnes per annum lead making capacity is also expected to boost its bottom line.Currently it is quoting at Rs.152.60. Keep an eye on it and take decision according to the results to be published on Saturday.
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Hi Valuepick,
ReplyDeleteCOuld you put some light on Borosil Glass, some land story is coming on CNBC and bloomberg and valuing stock near 1500 as compared to current price of 570 or so
Dear Friend
ReplyDeleteSorry,I am unable to value land bank stories and really not interested in such so called land bank story based companies
Dear ValuePick,
ReplyDeleteYour study of the companies and recommendations have been so good. Really thank you for your incredible work that helps investors like me who do not have great understanding like you have.
If possible, could you please give insights to Sonata Software.
Thanks for your great work.
Sandeep
Sonata is an average ,limited chance to both sides.
ReplyDeleteHi Valuepick,
ReplyDeleteYour thoughts about Muthoot capital Services, this stock looks similar to Manapurram Finance ( which is already a multibagger) which is into gold loans the most secured colateral to have.
Eagerly awaiting your thoughts on the same?
Regards,
Vikas
Dear Vikas
ReplyDeleteOnly problem of Muthoot Capital is that they have another pvt company with the same business in the name of Muthoot Fincorp,through which they are doing 95% of business.Even then ,company is expected to post an EPS between Rs.10 - 12 for the full year . Since there is a right issue in near future there may be some steam left in it ,but don't expect return like Manappuram since the promoters of Muthoot is not so aggressive. A portfolio manager from Kerala has recently entered in this counter,this may also positively affect the share price.
Hi Valuepick,
ReplyDeleteWhat is your view in Nile Ltd. Where do you see its future now?
Any inputs is appreciated.
Thanks,
Santosh
Dear Valupick,
ReplyDeleteResults of NILE is good but stock is down 20% any Fundamental changes you knew behind this fall ?.
NILE has reported loss of 1.1 cr in the quarter Mar 2010.
ReplyDeleteThus, this cannot be interpreted as good result. Hwever, I wud appreciate to get a viewpoint frm ValuePick. Where do you see this scrip going down to? Any revival?
Thanks,
Santosh
Dear Valuepick,
ReplyDeleteApart from Nile's future.. where do you think Pioneer Invest heading to, after posting a profit of 11.25 cr for the yr.
Thanks in advance for your views.
Santosh
Results wrth puking at, I think it will revive in ten years.Stay away from this scrip.
ReplyDeleteLast Qtr Result of NILE is really below my expectation.Turnover is exactly like my expectation but profit figure is very bad.But I strongly feels that there is some adjustment in the fourth qtr result and the company purposefully show a loss to prevent the rise of its share price from current level.Since the lead price was almost at the same level in the last qtr, the result should be atleast like the last qtr.
ReplyDeleteTwo points are very important to note:
1)In last year same qtr .for producing the products worth Rs 12.5 crore company bought raw materials worth 7.75 Cr.But now they bought raw material worth 49.25 Cr for producing products worth 48.25 Cr .! ,This can't be happened since its lead production is through re cycling method .Only possibility is that, citing a rise in raw material cost company may have stock raw material in bulk for future use.
2 ) company write off an amount of almost 7 crore as extraordinary expense ,which is really strange and never happened in the past.
I have already sought an explanation from the company secretary regarding the reasons for this , and expecting a reply from them in this regard.
As you are aware ,as per the agreement between GMM and NIle to settle the takeover matter, Court has provided 3 years (from 2009)to GMM to offload the shares in open market. At the same time promoters are hiking their stake through open market purchases.I really feels, to collect the shares at lower rate Nile management purposefully showed a poor result.
Anyway better to say out now
Dear Value Pick,
ReplyDeleteThank you so much for Detail Delineation.
nILE - A CORPORATE FRAUD
ReplyDeleteYES VALUE PICK YOU ARE RIGHT, MANAGEMENT HIKING STACK AND SHOWING POOR RESULTS SO AS TO COVER OPEN MARKET SHARES.LOOK AT JAICORP,KWALITY DAIRY ETC.
ReplyDeleteTHERE IS LITTLE CHANCE TO SHOW LOSS IN MARCH-10 QUARTER HAVING HIGH LEAD PRICE.
WHERE WILL THEIR GEOGIA VENTURE COME ON STREAM???
ReplyDeletenile sales has increaed tremondously may be due to the tirupathi plant operations but so is the loss,depriciation increased,raw material again increaed et etc, also management is wanting to get 100 crores from the sale of assets etc etc,while .......bottom line they have increased there stake,any idea how is lead prices ruling in the market.
ReplyDeletesomething is cooking,
your input after seeing this result.
please
Grab the stock as lead metal prices are at peak.Also expanded capacity running so i feel at least from high price profit will be 5 crs.and glass line division also improving i feel oct-10 will show profit of around 8 crs.
ReplyDelete