After a long period of underperformance ,our market outperformed in the last two months mainly because of overseas fund flow. We all know based on the current fundamentals many stocks are over priced , but it is also a fact that - movement of Stock market is always based on expectation and not on reality. A major reason for the robust fund flow may be due to the reduction in inflation and a possible rate cut .But is a rate cut possible in near term ?. If the recent price trend of many industrial commodities is any indication ,a decision may not be very easy. I really afraid , will RBI get at least one chance to reduce interest rates. Price of items like Cement,Steel..etc are showing signs of upward movement again and I feel many other items will follow this trend after the state elections are over. A really worrying factor is that the government is not planning or taking any steps to control inflation on a long term basis and they are solely depending on adjusting interest rates to control inflation. In our country , at a time of bumper crops we are wasting wheat in one part and the same time people buying the same item at a price of more than Rs.20/ Kg at the other end of the country .No sincere efforts to debottlenecking the storage and transportation facilities , no efforts to increase productivity,no tax reforms ..etc. All these issues are came to light only at the time of high inflation and everyone forgetting these issues when there is small dip in it.I don't think ,only vote bank based schemes will save our country for a long time. Suppose there is a recovery in western economies earlier than we anticipated there is every chance for a spike in fuel prices again. Stock prices of many companies from interest rate sensitive sectors move even more than 100 % in past two month on expectation of a rate cut going forward. But I believe it is prudent to book at least partial profits in such stocks and shift the amount to agricultural commodity related stocks which will always perform better in an inflationary situation.
Disclaimer: This Blog,its owner,creator & contributor is neither a Research Analyst nor an Investment Advisor and expressing opinion only as an Investor in Indian equities. He/She is not responsible for any loss arising out of any information, post or opinion appearing on this blog.Investors are advised to do own due diligence and/or consult financial consultant before acting on any such information. Author of this blog not providing any paid service and not sending bulk mails/SMS to anyone.
Tuesday, February 21, 2012
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please specify then the agri commodity stock
ReplyDeleteHi Valuepickji,
ReplyDeleteHow is RS Software for a investment with a 2 year view?
regards,
Rathnakar
Dear VP ji,
ReplyDeletePlease give some investment ideas related to agri commodity stock.
Regards
Gobind
hi sir, what's your view on coal india,ITC and Gmr infra at current price.??????? please suggest.
ReplyDeleteregards,
sankhajyoti
DearGuhan and Gobind
ReplyDeleteWe have already discussed stocks from Sugar and tea sectors
Dear Rathnakar
ReplyDeleteNot tracking R S Software
BUy ITC on any dip below Rs.200 for long term, not tracking the rest
ReplyDeleteHi Valuepick,
ReplyDeleteSince your last recommendation AHLCON has moved from 198 to 279 ? What is the story behind it?
Nikhil
Hello Valuepick,
ReplyDeleteWhat are your views on HCL INFO, HDIL, ROLTAS and YES BANK?
I can manage High risk. Please suggest some stocks with a period of 2 years
hello value pick ....
ReplyDeleteThe anjani cement stock u have suggested dsnt have volumes ..it is not moving too..
I jus want to ask do u really think its a good buy since its around its 52 week high..
@hope to see ur reply
Dear Nikhil
ReplyDeleteNo idea
Dear angadkat
ReplyDeleteOut of the mentioned scrips I am tracking only YES Bank and more than once shared my views on this one , no change for the same
Dear Rishab
ReplyDeleteAPCL's latest quarter performance not upto expectation ,skip for the time being if you have no plans to wait for long term
Hello Mr.VP,
ReplyDeleteGreeting.....
What is your stand on Neuland? I feel disappointed by seeing this qtr result. I have 500 shares @ Rs.125/-
Similarly any change from your stand on TCPL? I have 1000 shares @ Rs.52/ I am eagerly looking forward to your reply.
With Rgds,
Thillaisiva, Chennai
plz comment on my holds in bambino agro. results are improving but attention is needed.
ReplyDeleteHello Value pick....do you see some correction in the market coming in? also if Prakash industries should be brought now or can wait till 45-50 level...request you to please respond.
ReplyDeletewarm regards
Reshma
sir what do you think about the milkfood is it worth as it show excellent turnaround in last quarter
ReplyDeleteSir ,Tasty Bite has started SHOWING SOME POSITIVE SIGNALS....would you recomend a buy on one of your favourite stocks ,with sharp decline in essential vegetables like onion & TOMATOES WHICH DO FORM A MAJOR PART OF THEIR EXPENSES.....SIR ALSO PLS TELL US ON THE PROGRESS OF THEIR EXPANSION....THANK YOU....
ReplyDeleteWARM REGARDS .AMITABH
Sir
ReplyDeleteBetween Kaveri Seeds and Britannia which will be a better investment with 2 years plus perspective.
Dear Thillai Siva Pandian
ReplyDeleteDue to adverse market condition Neuland's plans to raise funds for debt repayment could not materialised which is really a negative factor.
Hold TCPL
Dear Reshma
ReplyDeleteReally a difficult question.As I mentioned in the above post this rally is purely depends on fund flow from FII's over and above fundamentals. So the question is whether the fundamentals will improve to justify the valuations or FII's start selling before it happens.UP election results,Outcome of RBI meet,oil price and further trend in inflation ..etc is expected to decide the way forward.
Better to stay invested upto 60 % and keep balance in cash.
Dear Aditya kumar gautam
ReplyDeleteMilkfood is a big company in this sector , but historically this company never showing steady performance .If it shows profit in one quarter next may be in big loss. Considering this risk one may take limited exposure around Rs.100/-
Kaveri or Britannia depends on your risk profile
ReplyDeletesir tell me the sector which has been brooken most in 2011 and the stocks from the same which i want to buy to hold for long term for the appriciation of 100%. thanks.
ReplyDeleteHI VP I ALSO RECARCH MANY COMPANY FROM VERIAUS SECTOR I FIND JK CEM JK TYER KESORAM GILLANDRA THIRUMALAI CHEM ALLS HAVE A GOOD KWALITY ASSETS AND HAVE A BIG EXPANTION PLAN LOSES COMES FROM INT & DEP I ALSO HAVE ESCORTS I THINK ALLS CAN BE MULTIBAGGER IN COMING PERIOD ARE YOU SUJEST ME THAT I AM RIGHT OR WRONG
ReplyDeleteTHANKS & REPLY ME.
Dear AMITABH
ReplyDeleteTBE is expected to perform well going forward
Dear TK
ReplyDeleteI think Sugar sector was the worst performer in 2011
Dear Narayan
ReplyDeleteGain in stock market not depends only on Asset quality but on the attitude of promoters too