Traditionally ,Investing in stocks considered as a high risk high return game
compared with other opportunities like Real Estate ,Gold..etc.Even in stocks
itself the degree of risk -return is different in the case of Blue Chips,Large
Caps,small caps..etc.Investing in turnaround companies is a favourite option of
high risk takers to generate maximum return at the cost of highest risk.This
strategy not at all suitable for average
or below average risk takers .Investment in such stocks may make millionaire's
as well as bankrupts based on the accuracy of one’s calculations.What I mean is
, below two stocks are from such a category and suitable only for investors who
are even willing to forget their entire capital invested and also having enough
patience.
2 Ashapura Minechem
This company along with its subsidiaries are the largest
exporters of bentonite from India and one among the biggest five in the
world.In addition to bentonite, company is in the production of many other
minerals including sizable operations in Bauxite , Kaolin, Attapulgite, Barites..etc.Its
major product –Benonite- is widely used in metal casting, iron ore pelletizing,
civil engineering, drilling, paper,
detergents, cosmetics..etc. Bauxite is the basic ore for producing Aluminium.Company
was a darling of investors till 2008 and its share price (post FV split) was
around Rs.400-500 level.A big blow came in the form of the ban on export /sale of bauxite by the
government of Gujarat in 2008-09.Only because of this unexpected ban many issues
followed in the form of forex losses and claims by few shipping companies.Kaolin
plant in Kerala went into trouble on account of some local issues.All these
incidents derailed company’s operations and ends in big losses.New mineral
policy announced by Gujarat Government in 2009 -10 bring clarity in mining policy and
permitted bauxite mining again.But by that time company’s financial health
eroded a lot and it declared as a Sick company in 2012.After many month’s sincere
attempt by the management, now the company is in a recovery mode.Debt of the
company restructured and promoters brought more funds into the company by way of
subscribing 40,00,000 Equity Shares of Rs. 2 each at a price of Rs. 36.83 per
share and 40,00,000 Convertible Warrants to be converted into equity shares.Claims by shipping
companies are challenged by the company in court and case with one company already settled out of court.Management of
Ashapura expecting a favorable verdict in other cases too.On the financial
front company showing sharp improvement in past few quarters.In latest full
year company reported a Sales of Rs.771 Cr and its bottom line also showing
remarkable improvement even excluding other income component.
Due to environment related
issues ,entry of new players in this segment is not very easy now and probably
in future.This situation giving special advantage for existing miners .I
believe ,the testing time of this company is over and it is the time for a new beginning
in the history of this company .Currently stock is trading around Rs.42
NITCO
LTD
This stock once recommended around Rs.60 ( old posting HERE) which is
currently trading around Rs.15.Recently company received permission to
restructure its debt .As in the above case ,now promoters are making additional
investment of Rs.57 Cr by subscribing 22099206
shares at a price of Rs.25.20 each.Company is still a reputed brand in its
category and reported a turnover of Rs.800
Cr in latest FY 2012-13.
Conclusion
There is lot of companies moving between life or death situation.Reasons
may vary from fraud promoters,sluggish economic growth,adverse rupee
movement..etc etc.Even after restructuring or debt reduction only a few will
survive and regain their past glory .Promoters interest to bring back business
and their hard working is the moot point
deciding the success or failure.Among many of these companies ,the above
mentioned two cases deserves special attention not only due to the fund
infusion by promoters but because of the fact that even they are going through
tough times still they are reporting respectable top line in the range of
Rs.700-800 Cr each.I think ,their business are still viable and they can
recover from the trouble if properly managed .Promoters may be in a better
position to understand their SWOT by now.Hence I recommending both these stocks
for extreme risk takers .
Price History :
Company Name All time High Low(
UA) High Low CMP
( Un Adjusted)
(Adj*) (Adj)
Ashapura Minechem*
Rs.1212 Rs.9 Rs.567 Rs.9 Rs.42
Nitco Ltd Rs.336 Rs.12 Rs.336 Rs.12 Rs.15
·
* stock Split in 2006
Link to Ashapura Minechem Website HERE
Link to Nitco Ltd Website HERE
Sirji, Eastern Gas EPS increased from 1.72 to 2.39.. and considering the cash credit policy of govt which u had already anticipated in past I think this stock will shoot up now? what your view?
ReplyDeleteDear VP,
ReplyDeleteOne of your old picks, Techtran polylenses has declared dividend, after a gap of 4 years. perhaps this is an indication of promoter's confidence in future. However, the turnaround is not so obvious in Q4 results. How do you read the results and announcement of dividend?
regards,
Srinivas
Both stocks ( Techtran Poly and Eatern Gas) are currently included in PCA . If this trading mechanism is continuing in the present form - not recommending any stocks included in PCA.
ReplyDeleteSir,
ReplyDeleteNot only PCA, But OFS offer for sale and delisting news is making stocks vulnerable to wide swings,previously it was pledge ,just like IPL,SEBI is behaving.
Regards
ramesh
Hi Sir, Please let me know how much dividend will I get if I have 1000 shares from the information below:
ReplyDeleteIon Exchange India Ltd has informed BSE that the Board of Directors of the Company at its meeting held on May 30, 2013, inter alia, has recommended a dividend of 20% (Rs. 2.00 per share) on equity shares for the financial year 2012-13.
Better to learn multiplication table before starting investment in stocks.
ReplyDeleteLOL...
DeleteWhat is your views on suzlon now. Best opportunity to buy or sell at whatever price you get.
ReplyDeleteMay take more time for a turn aroud than our earlier expectation
DeleteHello VP,
ReplyDeleteAny idea on Uflex industries, which is into packaging space? The fundamentals and balance sheet look good, but the stock has hit low; any idea why? If you have any idea, would you recommend buying it?
Thanks.
Sceptical about the promoters of U-Flex.
DeleteDear sir, your views on Omkar Speciality Chemicals, if you're tracking?
ReplyDeleteNOt tracking this stock.
Deletesir,
ReplyDeleteMarksans pharma has agreed to settle 48 million USD FCCBs by end FY14. Can they generate suffcient cash flow to complete the settlement
Cash flow fronm business is not the only source for re-payment .
DeleteSir wht abt Sequent now..
ReplyDeleteAvg or book loss..
Regards Aman.
It is still a hold for high risk long term investors
Deletehi vp,
ReplyDeleteyou are talking about value and now you are concerned about trading? how does it matter for you if you are a long term value investor?
is it because you have zero scope in trading pca after your recommendations? what we are noticing there is no recommendations from pca stocks. thanks kapil.
I have never adviced anyone to trade ,but there should be minimum liquidity which is not there in PCA now.
DeleteSir
ReplyDeleteHeritage didn't declare the bonus as announced but postponed it till July.
Do you see any issue in that and the stock is down to 450 levels.
Do you see a buying opportunity for first time buyers who didn't buy earlier?
I don't think there is any negative effect on company's business only because of this postponement.
DeleteHi VP,
ReplyDeletehave been following your blog for a few days. Thank you for all the valuable suggestions. Keep up the good work :)
And whats your opinion about Dhanlaxmi Bank? Its hovering near to Rs.40 these days.
Only tracking two private banks - ING Vysya and YES bank- and positive on both for long term.
Deletedear value
ReplyDeletewhat ur view on BEML now/
PATIDAR
NOt strictly tracking BEML
DeleteHello Sir,
ReplyDeletePls suggest a Pharma script for long term. Your view on Divis Lab. Thanks.
I am sceptical on Divis ,positive on Lupin
DeleteHow would I fare if I buy a share of Bosch ; Asian paints ; nestle every month for a period of 5 years
ReplyDeleteAnd 10 shares of godrej cipla and pidilte ..
Stocks are not bad,prefer Lupin and Sun over Cipla.
DeleteWhat will happen if I invest in punter/operator driven stocks .. Are they also included in PCA ... Will I be able to sell them ??
ReplyDeleteNormally punters/operators are creating lot of volume in their favourite stocks.As per SEBI formula these type stocks are excluded from PCA list and only genuinely traded stocks included in it .That's why I doubt whether the purpose of this saved or not.
DeleteDear VP, ur view on JP infra. making new lows everyday....
ReplyDeleteNot a fan of Jaiprakash Group ,so no opinion about any of their cos.
DeleteSir reason for you not being fan of jaypee group?
DeleteBusiness groups like Jaypee,Essar,RPG ..etc are running their cos only for themselves and trying their level best to not give anything to its minority share holders.This is my belief ..
Deletedear value
ReplyDeletecan v include opto circuit and sintex and jain irrigation in this category? (high risk-trun around-management effort)
Patidar
Opto Circuit,Jain Irrigation,Bilcare,,Sintex..etc are facing almost similar problem - Slow demand growth and high interest burden- .I think Jain is most preferable from this pack.
Deletehello sir,
ReplyDeleteI would like to know if BRITTANIA is a buy even at RS 665??
I am a long term investor...
THANKS
Stock recently apprciated substantially ,buy after a consolidation
DeleteSir, I'm seeking your opinion on Aarti Drugs since long time. Please advise on its future growth.
ReplyDeleteStock gained a lost in past few months , but some more steam left.
DeleteDear sir,
ReplyDeleteWhen next round of PCA shares will be announced, is there any chance mangalam cement, orient bell, va tech wabag to be included in that category..
Only SEBI and exchanges knows the exact bench mark of PCA,and there is no transparency in it.Last time they excluded many companies even they are eligible for PCA as per announced benchmarks.
DeleteValue Pick Ji,
ReplyDeleteYour View on the recent Eon Electric results.
Can we still hold / accumulate the shares.
Thanks
Arun
Pl give your views on Swelect Energy. Stock avbl at 5.5% dividend yield and at 40% of book value. Recently made foray into Solar energy space. Promoters have good track record.
ReplyDeleteThanks.
Yield and book value at attractive level due to its hiving off of part of its business few years back.Later company entered in solar space where many cos failed to perform financially.If you are not interested to take higher level of risk ,better to wait for a while ..
DeleteU r view about TATA COFFEE .please
ReplyDeleteHeron
sir span diagnostic has come down from 52 levels to 23 levels what is your take on this?hold,add,sell
ReplyDeleteI have the same question. Due to PCA, this scip seems to be dead and going down every day.
DeleteNOt only this scrip ,everything included in PCA is almost dead.I think this is the foolish and idiotic decision taken by SEBI ever.
DeleteNot recommending a BUY on any stock which included in PCA till it continue in the present form ,due to extreme low liquidity.
ReplyDeleteSir, i would like to know your view about Accel Transmatic Ltd, if tracking. It was presented to investors with big ambitions on animation business. But nothing has worked out and today it is a company with sales of only 2 Lakhs.
ReplyDeleteI hold some more shares with a higher price/ share. Kindly advise on how to handle these type of situations.
Not tracking Accel Transmatic
DeleteDear sir,
ReplyDeleteI am holding Mangalam cement inv. price:158, current cmp:122, granules inv.price:136, current cmp:133, orient bell inv. price:81, current cmp:63, vatech wabag, inv.price:532, current cmp:449.
I need your serious views on the above stocks whether i should book loss or hold or accumulate.
Sir please reply sir.
None of these companies are bad.Construction related stocks like Mangalam and Orient affected due to slow growth in this sector .I hope all of these will improve performance once the macro economic situation show some improvement and stock price will be re-rated accordingly provided non inclusion in PCA.
DeleteDear VP,
ReplyDeletePlease suggest some Value picks which are biggest benefeciaries of current economic scenario in India like;
1. depreciating rupee in near term to Rs60/$
2. 5% Current Account Defecit
3. High Import duty on Gold
4. New economic reforms to be announced by PChidambaram in July and so on.
Thanks
Regards
Sakharam
Dear sir.. took marksans @3.60..shall i hold or book profit..
ReplyDeleteHi Sir,
ReplyDeletecan i buy NITCO Tiles for a period of 6 months