One of the most enduring sayings on
Wall Street is "Cut your losses short and let your winners run." Sage
advice, but many investors still appear to do the opposite, selling stocks
after a small gain only to watch them head higher, or holding a stock with a
small loss, only to see it worsen.No one will deliberately buy a stock
they believe will go down in price and be worth less than what they paid for
it. However, buying stocks that drop in value is inherent to the nature of
investing. The objective, therefore, is not to avoid losses, but to minimize
the losses. Realizing a capital loss before it gets out of hand separates
successful investors from the rest. In this article, we'll help you stand out
from the crowd and show you how to identify when you should make your move.
Reasons Investors Hold
Stocks With Large Unrealized Losses
In spite of the logic for cutting losses short, many small investors are still left holding the proverbial bag. They inevitably end up with a number of stock positions with large unrealized capital losses. At best, it's "dead" money; at worst, it drops further in value and never recovers. Typically, investors believe that the reason they have so many large, unrealized losses is because they bought the stock at the wrong time or it was a matter of bad luck. Rarely do they believe it is because of their own behavioral biases.
Let's look at a few of these biases:
- Stocks Always Bounce Back - Don't They?
A glance at a long-term chart of any major stock index will see a line that moves from the lower-left corner to the upper right. The stock market, over any long time period, will always make new highs. Knowing that the stock market will go higher, investors mistakenly assume that their stocks will eventually bounce back. However, a stock index is made up of successful companies. It is an index of winners. Those less successful stocks may have been part of an index at one time, but if they've dropped significantly in value, they will eventually be replaced by more successful companies. The indexes are always being replenished by dropping the losers and replacing them with winners. Looking at the major indexes tends to overstate the resiliency of the average stock, which does not necessarily bounce back. In fact, many companies never regain their past highs and some go bankrupt.
Investors
Do Not Like Admitting They've Made a Mistake
By avoiding selling a stock at a loss, many investors do not have to admit to themselves that they've made a judgment error. Under the false illusion that it is not a loss until the stock is sold, they elect to continue to hold a losing position. In doing so, they avoid the regret of a bad choice. After a stock suffers a loss, many investors plan to hold onto it until it returns to its purchase price. They intend to sell the stock once they recover this paper loss. This means they will break even, and "erase" their mistake. Unfortunately, many of these same stocks will continue to slide.
- Neglect.
When stock portfolios are doing well, investors often tend to them like well-maintained gardens. They show great interest in managing their investments and harvesting the fruits of their labor. However, when their stocks are holding steady or are dropping in value, especially for long time periods, many investors lose interest. As a result, these well-maintained stock portfolios start showing signs of neglect. Rather than weeding out the losers, many investors do nothing at all. Inertia takes over and, instead of pruning their losses, they often let them grow out of control.
- Hope Springs Eternal.
Hope is the belief in the possibility of a positive outcome, even though there is some evidence to the contrary. Hope is also one of the primary theological virtues in various religious traditions. Although hope has its place in theology, it does not belong in the cold hard reality of the stock market. In spite of continuing bad news, investors will steadfastly hold onto their losing stocks, based only on the faint hope that they will at least return to the purchase price. The decision to hold is not based on rational analysis or a well-thought-out strategy; and unfortunately, wishing and hoping that a stock will go up does not make it happen.
. Realizing Capital Losses
Often you just have to bite the bullet and sell your stock at a loss before those losses get bigger. The first thing to understand is that hope is not a strategy. An investor has to have a logical reason to hold a losing position. The second point is, what you paid for a stock is irrelevant to its future direction. The stock will go up or down based on forces in the stock market, the stock's underlying fundamentals and its future prospects.
Let's look at a few ways of assuring
a small loss does not become "dead" money or turn into a much larger
loss.
- Have an Investment Strategy
Having a written investment strategy with a set of rules both for buying and selling stocks will provide the discipline to sell stocks before the losses blossom. The strategy could be based on fundamental, technical or quantitative factors.
- Have Reasons to Sell a Stock
An investor generally has quite a few reasons why he or she bought a stock, but typically no set boundaries for when to sell it. Don't let this happen to you. Set reasons to sell stocks, and sell them when these things occur. The reason could be as simple as: "Sell if bad news is released about corporate developments".
- Would You Buy the Stock Now?
On a regular basis, review every stock you hold and ask yourself the simple question: "If I did not own this stock, would I buy it today?" If the answer is a resounding "No", then it should be sold.
Tax-Loss Harvesting Strategies
A tax-loss harvesting strategy is used to realize capital losses on a regular basis and provides some discipline against holding losing stocks for extended time periods. To put your stock sales in a more positive light, remember that you receive tax credits that can be used to offset taxes on your capital gains.
Conclusion
Taking corrective action before your losses worsen is always a good strategy. In investing, avoiding losses entirely may not be possible; successful investors accept this and try to minimize their losses rather than avoid them. Selling a stock at a loss and receiving a tax credit is one benefit you will receive. Selling these "dogs" has another advantage too - you will not be reminded of your past mistake every time you look at your investment statement.
Hi VP Sir, Thanks for very useful article. Your views on jubilant industries. Will it show growth after selling loss making retail business.
ReplyDeleteAs of now not tracking Jubilant Ind.
DeleteGood lesson sir ji, thank you.
ReplyDeleteHello Sir,
ReplyDeleteSir your valuable inputs regarding Divyashakti Granites
Frontier Springs
Thank you sir..
Not tracking both cos.
DeleteOn July 24th you commented on moldtek, after results what's your view, still steam left to go up.
ReplyDelete(I'm holding shares, shall I book, or future is better for that ?)
Thanks sir.
Asian Paints setting up its biggest manufacturing plant in AP. This is expected to augur well for Moldtek in long term.
DeleteOne should cut loss in SKM Egg?
ReplyDeleteNow ? . When I felt some negative factors I suggested to exit from it and that was even 100% above current rate . It was not a single one word SELL suggestion but I explained my rationale for my opinion .What negative you are seeing now in its business more than what I mentioned at that time and even after a correction in price.?
DeleteYour view on CMIFPE and WPIL at current level ? is it right time now to buy cyclical beaten down stocks ?
ReplyDeleteNot tracking CMIFPE
DeleteWPIL earlier suggested @ Rs.180 , at CMP Rs.380 nothing new to comment .
Sir
ReplyDeleteWhat is your opinion about MPS limited. Thanks.
Not tracking
DeleteDear VP ji
ReplyDeletePls share your opinions on
1.Butterfly
2. Ifb agro. Thanks
Let us hope good monsoon and implementation of pay commission suggestions will boost the spending power of people and some positive impact on white/brown goods manufacturers in long term.
DeleteNot tracking IFB Agro
Hi VP
ReplyDeleteAny idea about the following scripts
pioneer distillery and saven technology
Sir your views on Mic results and also of the updates of businesses and waiver of sbi interest.
ReplyDeleteAt this stage , Debt reduction is the most important point to note.
DeleteDear VP, sincerely hope you are in fine nick! Can you please give your views on latest Q1-17 result of Mic Electronics? Do you think positive about the Company's prospects goingforward? Warm regards!
ReplyDeleteSir please give your view on kokuyo camlin and indian hume pipe company if you are following them.
ReplyDeleteNot tracking
DeleteSir, Any views on Shree Digvijay Cements?
ReplyDeleteSector revival is key
DeleteThanks for the prompt reply sir.
DeleteDear sir,
ReplyDeleteYour views about the muthoot capital service after IT raid. I am holding its share. What one should do in this case?
Nothing to comment without any idea about the outcome.
DeleteHi Sir your View on GEECEE ventures as it came up with pretty good set of numbers , has come down 20-25% from recent highs.Please Update
ReplyDeleteNot tracking it
DeleteSir, what is your view on Gujarat Borosil after Q1 results announced today?
ReplyDeleteMore than result, waiting to get some clarity on fund raising for capacity expansion.
DeleteHi VP Sir,
ReplyDeleteYour views on Exide Industires and Lakshmi energy for long term? Also is NR Agrawal good buy at CMP? Thanks in advance for helping us.
Not tracking Exide.
DeleteA good company may not be a good investment at any price point.
Sir you had given positive views on shree digvijay cement company ltd, now Q1 results are out. How you see the performance of d company and growth potential of d company in near future. Sir, is this company currently having 100% production of its capacity and what are d capacity expansion plans. Sir, in india this is only have presence in gujrat, will they spread their presence in north,south and other developing parts of india to cater growth and earnings. Pls share your valuable views. Thankyou.
ReplyDeleteAnswers of these questions are either available in their AR or can be answered only by management.
DeleteHi Vp sir
ReplyDeleteRegarding Alps industries, I understand that a part of their overall debt (around 30%) is cleared (with RBS).
Do you know if they have plans to settle the rest?
-Srinivas
Not debt , it was only a contingent liability
DeleteAny change in your views on valiant communication sir?
ReplyDeleteNO change
DeleteSir..any views about SUMEET INDUSTRIES LTD ?
ReplyDeleteNot tracking it.
DeleteThis is just a word of gratitude for you for being a shining guiding light for us investors. Even though you have stopped giving direct recommendations,you subtle references to any stock has made me research deep into the stock and thus given lot of knowledge through practice in the process. My pre VP/post VP portfolio quality has such a huge difference. Finally, i have become mature in investing in stocks all thanks to you. Please ignore anyone who is selfish enough to expect total spoon feeding from you. Wish you a healthy long life ahead Sir.
ReplyDeleteThanks
DeleteSir your comment on Pioneer Embroideries result out today. Looks good for long term.
ReplyDeleteSir
ReplyDeleteYour comments on Amulya leasing results
Hello VP sir.
ReplyDeleteGUJRAT BOROSIL- Whats your current view on management and sector as well.positive ,negative or neutral for next 2-3 years period.
Dear sir
ReplyDeleteWilling to know your views on newly listed quess corp, advanced enzyme.
Can one enter now or will wait for correction. Thanks
Dear VP Sir,
ReplyDeleteYour views on your old pick Multibase India?
Thanks
Very Useful Article...Felt as if its was addressed to me in person. Thank you Sir...
ReplyDeleteDear VP sir
ReplyDeleteVery valuable Thank You
Sir