Wednesday, February 9, 2011

INTERNATIONAL TRAVEL HOUSE - REPEAT

I have recommended a BUY on this ITC Group company @ Rs.165 /- on 25 th April ,2010.After touching a high of Rs.316/-  ,currently it is trading around Rs.182/- .Considering the better performance of the company  and the bright prospects of the Travel and Tourism industry , I reiterate a BUY at current level.For the Nine month ended December ITHL posted a net profit of Rs.13 Cr v/s Rs.8 Cr and an EPS of Rs. 16 v/s Rs.10 for the same period in last FY.

Old Report Can be accessed HERE

Sunday, February 6, 2011

NOVARTIS INDIA LTD - BUY





Novartis India is  76% subsidiary of Swiss drug major Novartis AG.Company's Indian operations can be classified into Pharmaceuticals,  Generics, OTC  and  Animal Health.Novaris have some good brands like Voveran,Otrivin  ..etc Company also own some popular brands like Sandimmun, Neoral,Tegrital.
In the animal health division company's brands include Natuzyme,Denagard..etc.
In 2009 ,company came out with an open offer and raised the parent's stake to current level.
In recent times company showing aggressiveness in development and marketing of new products especially in
Cough, Cold, and Allergy category. Reflection of the same is already visible in its financials.
For the latest December quarter company posted a turnover of Rs.184 Cr ( Rs.160 Cr) and a net profit of RS.41 Cr (Rs.23 Cr)  Full year EPS is expected around Rs.48/-.Along with good prospects of pharma industry in India due to increasing health awareness and government focus,company's better commitment after hiking its parent's stake is expected to augurs well for Novartis going forward.At CMP of  Rs.622,Novartis is a good bet from pharma sector.

Five things you shouldn't do when stock markets fall

COURTESY - BUSINESS LINE


As you watched the Sensex zip past 20,000 in October, you told yourself – “I missed this one! But I'll wait for a correction”. Well, the wait is now over. The Sensex has dipped by over 10 per cent since New Year, with some stocks plunging by as much as 20-30 per cent.
What you, as a young investor, should do now is quite clear. You should be putting away some of your savings (in measured doses) into blue-chip stocks or equity mutual funds for the long term. However, that's easier said that done. So we thought we had better tell you what you shouldn't do in a market fall! Don't:
Head for the exit door
A few months ago, you carefully picked blue-chip stocks and decided to buy them for your retirement. Your ‘portfolio' was doing fine until the markets began to correct. Now, with many of those buys dipping below your purchase price, you wonder if you did the right thing. Should you sell the whole lot now, while the going is good?
Stop right there and think back to why you bought stocks in the first place. Was it because you hoped to double your money in six months? Or was it because you'll have a Rs 1 crore portfolio on retirement? If it was the latter, you should now be buying instead of selling.
Yes, the stocks you hold can sink further in the short term (next six months to a year), but selling them will leave you with no new avenues to meet your goals. Many investors who kept selling their stock and equity fund holdings in 2008 as the markets plunged all the way from 21,000 to 9,000, never had the nerve to re-invest that money at lower levels.
Switch to ‘safer' options
Most people seem to be quite comfortable with the risks of equity investing until they actually come face to face with them! Santhanam, an IT professional in his forties, wanted to build a portfolio of ‘high risk-high return' mutual funds, three months ago. We promptly suggested a few funds that invest in small-cap stocks. Today the portfolio sports a loss of 20 per cent. Santhanam says he wasn't prepared for this. Should he switch into safer fixed deposits which will give him 8 per cent a year?
Shifting money out of stocks or equity funds, after you have made losses on them is the worst thing you can do. By suffering a 20 per cent loss on his portfolio, Santhanam has already borne the brunt of equity risks. Why not stay put to reap its rewards?
In Santhanam's case the stock market has shaved 20 per cent off his wealth in just three months. However, if he switches the money into fixed deposits now, it is going to take him two and a half years just to recoup capital.
The only investment that can help you recoup losses suffered in equities is the equity market itself. So set aside a certain proportion of your savings towards equity investments (say 20 per cent) and don't lose your nerve if markets fall. When it does, buy stocks.
Scrounge for penny stocks
Okay, the market has fallen 10 per cent and most stocks are cheaper than they were just weeks ago. So what should you buy? For most of us, the first impulse is to scrounge for stocks trading at less than a magic figure of Rs 10.
After all, why should I buy 50 shares of ONGC at a stiff Rs 1,200 a share, when I can get 1,70,000 shares of the intriguing Cals Refineries, at 35 paise apiece for the same sum? Well, because ONGC has a running and thriving business in oil refining which makes it a much safer bet.
Blue-chips like ONGC may not multiply in a month, but they offer far greater certainty of long-term returns, than penny stocks like Cals Refineries. Therefore, while you can quite easily bet Rs 35,000 on ONGC if you have a Rs 2 lakh plus portfolio, you certainly shouldn't be investing that big a sum on a dark horse like Cals Refineries.
Wait for the bottom
If you are looking to invest after a market fall, don't wait for the market to ‘bottom' out. The ‘bottom' in any falling market phase is evident only in hindsight.
Sudhish, who started on his first job in January 2009 wanted to make a start on equity investing soon after receiving his first pay packet. The Sensex was hovering at 9,500 levels then. However, thoroughly psyched by predictions on television that the Sensex would head down to 8,000 or even 6,600 levels, he stayed away. Once the up move started, it became more and more difficult to take the plunge; he finally began investing at 14,000 Sensex!
If you are a long-term investor, don't make too fine a point of timing. When market commentators on television tell you that the Sensex has broken through a key ‘support' and is plunging towards the abyss, they are addressing traders who would like to make a quick buck over a day or a week. Not the retail investor who buys a stock for 5 or 10 years. Remember that market ‘forecasts' can change as quickly as the weather!
Try ‘shorting' stocks
Despite all the wise-sounding counsel on television, believe us, no one has a clue on where the markets are headed in the short term. That's why predictions about where the Sensex is headed over a trading day are so often wrong.
That's why you should never be tempted into ‘shorting' a falling market or stock. The problem with selling stocks that you don't own (short selling) is that the price has to fall immediately for you to make money on the trade.
When you buy a stock and it refuses to move up you can always hold on to it, in the hope that you will be proved right in a month or even a year's time. However, when you short-sell a stock, you don't have that luxury.
To square up the position; you will need to buy the stock at a higher price if need be. Shorting is a sure way to lose your shirt in a whimsical market.







Saturday, February 5, 2011

AMRIT BANASPATI COMPANY LTD - RESULT UPDATE

I have recommended a BUY on Amrit Banaspati  @ Rs.114 /- ,(Old Report HERE)which is currently trading @ Rs.183/-.Company posted good result in the December quarter.Sales improved from Rs.224 Cr to Rs.297 Cr and net profit from Rs.2.42 Cr to Rs.8.5 Cr. EPS for nine month is Rs.20/- v/s Rs.7/- .Investors can book profit partially (50%) and HOLD the balance.

Thursday, February 3, 2011

ASHAPURA MINECHEM - RESULT UPDATE

Ashapura Minechem is one of the largest exporters of  bauxite and bentonite from India .After a long period ,company posted an encouraging result in December quarter with sales of Rs.140 Cr v/s Rs.123 Cr and a net profit of Rs.13 Cr v/s a loss of Rs.19 Cr. Company is facing some legal issues with Maharashtra Government and some shipping agencies,also the changes in the mining policy of Gujarat government is a point to note. Keep an eye on these developments.
Currently Ashapura Minechem is trading at Rs.32/-

Wednesday, February 2, 2011

NEULAND LAB - RESULT UPDATE

NEULAND LABORATORIES - posted good result for the quarter ended December 2010.Sales improved from Rs.70 Cr to Rs.95 Cr and net PROFIT to Rs.4 Cr from a LOSS of Rs 6.6 Cr. Long term investors may consider a BUY at CMP Rs.113/-

Sunday, January 30, 2011

LA OPALA RG -BUY






















La Opala RG is an undisputed leader of Tableware items in India .The brand 'La opala' commanding a huge brand loyalty in Indian crockery market and the company also exporting its products to almost 30 countries around the world.La opala manufacturing opal and crystal glass wares from its units located at Deoghar and Udhamsingh Nagar in Uttarakhand.Company is steadily increasing its turnover in past many years and its is expected to cross Rs.100 Cr sales by FY 2012.Company is very keen to introduce attractive designs and new varieties time to time which is helping the company to keep its market share in the premium segment of tableware market. This trend is expected to continue in future.Company posted a turnover of Rs.27 Cr and a net profit of Rs.3 Cr in December qtr compared with a sale of Rs.21 Cr and a net profit of Rs.51 lac for the same period last year. Company having a good chance to grow with the increasing consumption theme of Indian middle class in coming years.Investors with long term view can include La Opala RG stock which is currently trading around Rs.66/- in their portfolio.Any dip to around Rs.50/- due to overall market sentiment may take as an opportunity to accumulate more .

Saturday, January 29, 2011

Orchid Pharma CMD wins 'Padma Shri' award

 

 

 

 

 Read with old Report HERE

 

His life and career demonstrate how talented professionals can harness their entrepreneurial energy and utilize the huge opportunity offered by India to establish world-class businesses generating employment and earning valuable foreign exchange for the country. 

 

Chennai-based global Pharma major Orchid Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals Ltd. (Orchid) announced that its Founder – Chairman and Managing Director  K Raghavendra Rao has been awarded the prestigious ‘Padma Shri’ Award by the Government of India for his contribution to the Pharmaceutical Industry.

K Raghavendra Rao - a brief profile 

K Raghavendra Rao, Founder - Chairman & Managing Director of Chennai-based global pharmaceutical major, Orchid Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals Ltd., (Orchid) is a role model of first generation entrepreneurship. His life and career demonstrate how talented professionals can harness their entrepreneurial energy and utilize the huge opportunity offered by India to establish world-class businesses generating employment and earning valuable foreign exchange for the country.  

Born in Chennai, in the year 1958,  Raghavendra Rao had been a brilliant student all through his career. He graduated with a Degree in Commerce from Andhra University with a gold medal for being the topper. He pursued post-graduate studies in Management in the prestigious Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad. He also acquired Costing (ICWAI) and Company Secretary (ACS) qualifications while in employment making him a highly qualified professional with multiple competencies. 

Rao established Orchid in 1992 as a 100% export oriented unit (EOU) and grew the Company rapidly into a global pharmaceutical enterprise specializing in life saving medicines. With world-class research and manufacturing facilities covering Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (APIs) and finished dosage forms as well as infrastructure for New Drug Discovery, Orchid today ranks amongst the top pharmaceutical companies in India. 

By developing Orchid as the largest pharmaceutical corporation in the State of Tamil Nadu,  Rao firmly placed Tamil Nadu in the national and international pharmaceutical canvas.  

Raghavendra Rao is a recipient of several awards and recognitions for his personal and professional accomplishments and Orchid, for its business performance.  Rao received prestigious national awards for his entrepreneurship, two of the leading 

awards being the India Young Business Achiever Award in 1997 and Ernst & Young Entrepreneur of the Year Award in Manufacturing in 1999. Orchid won several awards for its export performance, environmental friendly operations, energy efficiency and corporate social responsibility (CSR). Orchid Trust established with the initiative of  Rao, contributed to significant social development through schools and healthcare facilities. 

Orchid’s CSR initiatives were recognised by the Loyola Institute with the Mother Teresa Award for the Best Corporate Citizen in 2001.  Rao was also conferred the Doctor of Letters (Honoris Causa) by the SASTRA University in 2007 for his entrepreneurial achievements and contribution to the growth of the Indian pharmaceutical industry. 



Courtesy :IIFL

 

An old story

 

Courtesy - domain-b

Consider the following scenario: Bill Gates, fresh out of Harvard, incidentally without graduating, has already decided on creating Microsoft. However, hard-pressed for funding, he decides to raise funds from the open market and lists Microsoft right at its inception. To survive in the nascent computer industry, he decides to liquidate most of his personal stake in the company to raise money, and manages to increase its revenues twenty-five times within a decade. However, IBM, the reigning emperor of the computer world, is not happy with the emergence of a pretender to the throne. Nor is it enthralled by the fact that though it enjoys a monopoly on computer hardware, it does not yet have a killer software product. And so, it plans a sneaky counter-attack.
It creates an entity, lets say Takeover Inc, specifically for taking over Microsoft, which waits and watches for the right opportunity. As soon as it finds that there is a general economic downturn and Bill Gates has a lot of debt, it strikes! Share prices are low due to the fall in stock markets worldwide, and Takeover buys a lot of Microsoft shares cheap. Eventually, it convinces institutional investors in Microsoft that the kind of money IBM can offer for their shares is much more they can hope to get in the next few years by staying on with Gates.
They agree and sell out. IBM becomes the new owner of Microsoft and shunts out Bill Gates. End of Microsoft. End of Bill Gates. End of Windows.
Many Mac users will say that wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing, but all criticisms of frequent hang-ups and blue screens of death notwithstanding, Windows still runs more than 90 per cent of the world's computers. And without Bill Gates and his Windows, computers wouldn't be as ubiquitous as they are today. In fact IBM chairman Thomas Watson had once predicted "I think there's a world market for about five computers."
A possible alternate history, though quite a bit dramatised. However, something similar is playing out right now in India, and in quite a different sector of pharmaceuticals. Just replace the names - Kailasam Raghavendra Rao for Bill Gates, Orchid Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals for Microsoft, Ranbaxy for IBM, cephalosporin for Windows and Solrex for Takeover Inc, and you have a perfect match.
Like Bill Gates,  K Raghavendra Rao is a a first-generation entrepreneur whose Orchid Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals grew in the early years on the strength of its product  cephalosporin, not unlike the ascent of Microsoft as Windows became the de facto personal computer operating system. Similarly, Ranbaxy is the biggest kid on the block, just like IBM had been in Microsoft's youth. And although IBM never made a serious play for Microsoft, Ranbaxy seems from its recent open market acquisitions of Orchid's stocks, very interested in its rival.
How did this all come to pass?
The story began in 1993 with the setting up of  Orchid Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals, by  IIM-Ahmedabad alumnus K Raghavendra Rao who chucked up a lucrative corporate career to strike out on his own. Though a first generation entrepreneur, he persevered and took the company to a constant-growth curve; from a Rs30-crore company in 1993, Orchid Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals recorded a turnover in excess of Rs1,000 crore in 2008.
Rao expanded his company's product portfolio. From a single product, the antibiotic  cephalosporin, its current range includes a variety of medicines in oral and injectable forms. From bulk actives Orchid invested in forward integration into finished dosages, and then moved from lesser regulated markets like China to the developed, and highly regulated, US and Japanese markets.
In the bargain the promoter picked up laurels like the Ernst and Young Business Achiever award and was felicitated by former President Dr.Shankar Dayal Sharma and former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee for his contributions to the pharmaceuticals industry and a rare presidential visit from President APJ Abdul Kalam during his tenure as president in 2005 (See: Orchid Chemicals hosts presidential visit at its formulations complex)
Rao came from a middle-class background and getting into business was quite an alien experience. All this time, his personal ownership in the company never reached a controlling stake, unlike other Indian promoters. The last time he decided to increase his stake in the company was in March-June 2007, when Rao chose to hike his stake in the company from 17 per cent to 24 per cent after pledging his personal shares with Indiabulls and Religare, a Ranbaxy group brokerage house, to maintain the faith of investors in the company.
Sunk by the Bear Stearns crisis
The story of Orchid is, in many ways, a story of the ongoing sub-prime crisis. Even as Bear Stearns, one of the oldest names of Wall Street, went into bankruptcy recently, it sold shares it held worldwide in a futile rearguard action. Unfortunately for Orchid, one million of its own shares were among those sold by the beleaguered bank in March, resulting in a decline in Orchid's share price from a 52-week high of Rs328 to Rs200 by mid-March.
The fall of the dominoes had started. Margin calls were triggered by the firms which had provided margin funding - Indiabulls and Religare - and Rao was forced to offload seven per cent of his holding to meet their demands. On 17 March, the Orchid share tanked by 38 per cent to around Rs110, and hit its 52-week low of Rs106.50 on 24 March, leaving it a vulnerable takeover target.
Malvinder MohanShivinder Mohan SinghThis is where Solrex, apparently an investment firm said to be controlled by Malvinder and Shivinder Singh of Ranbaxy, made  an appearance. As late as the end of the last fiscal on 31 March, it did not have any significant holding in Orchid, later revealed to be 4.6 per cent. However, since this was below the 5 per cent mark, Solrex was not required to make the information of its shareholding public.
However, it found in the low share price a perfect buying opportunity, and picked up an additional 3.4 per cent stake from the open market on 3 April. Since the cumulative 8 per cent mandated a disclosure, the information was made public by Solrex. Solrex continued mopping up Orchid shares, and after deals made on 8th April and 12th April, is now the owner of an estimated 14.7 per cent of  Orchid Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals. This figure is quite close to the 15 per cent stake that would necessitate an open offer to other shareholders as per Indian law, if the company decides to launch an acquisition.
Of course, the share price hasn't languished all these weeks. It has risen spectacularly since the news of Ranbaxy's interest came in and is now trading in the Rs245 range. In fact, Solrex's latest deals were struck at this price at the stock exchanges on Friday. However, analysts opine that even after this increase in recent times, the stock trades at an attractive PE ratio of 18.44.
Considering the enormous advantages that Ranbaxy can accrue from such an acquisition, odds are on that Ranbaxy mounts a hostile takeover bid for Orchid through Solrex, notwithstanding its management's assertations to the contrary.
What does Ranbaxy stand to gain from such an acquisition? A lot, apparently.
For one, it gets expertise in a field in which it didn't have any – high-end antibiotics. Additionally, it gets a lot of capacity addition in the cephalosporin space, where Orchid is India's biggest and amongst the world's top five manufacturers. Orchid is already notching up impressive sales abroad, and even with this ongoing share drama, the company has found time to expand its footprint in to Japan last week (See: Orchid Chemicals announces Japanese subsidiary). Orchid's product range can also function as an appropriate feeder for Ranbaxy's healthcare subsidiary Fortis. 
Another very important benefit that Ranbaxy will obtain by acquiring Orchid is access to assets and technologies that have been approved by regulatory authorities across the world, including the US FDA (Food and Drug Administration), the UK MHRA (Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency). This is especially significant in the light that as much as 75 per cent of Ranbaxy's revenue comes from exports, and recently it has had several face-offs with the FDA.
With several pre-approved products, the acquisition of Orchid can enable Ranbaxy consolidate its position in the overseas market.
How can Rao prevent his company from being swallowed by the giant?
One option is to increase his own stake in his company, for which he will require funds. Also, if the other institutional investors, who collectively hold a 38 per cent stake, decide to stand by him and refuse to sell out to Solrex, he stands a good chance of riding out this storm.
For the first alternative, Rao can convert 5 million warrants in his ownership to an additional 7.6 per cent equity stake. This option was unattractive till three days ago, but a 34 per cent rise in the company's share price since Monday has made the conversion price of Rs202.58 per share look cheap. However, even for this, Rao needs to rustle up some Rs.90 crore.
As for the second option, he has already received support from the largest shareholder Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC), which hold a 7.8-per cent stake, and has expressly opposed a hostile takeover by any party as a matter of policy. However, the other big investors, notably DSP Merrill Lynch (5.3 per cent), Harpline (4.5 per cent), Macquarie Bank (4.1 per cent), Credit Suisse (3.3 per cent) and Fidelity (2.7 per cent) are yet to decide on their stakes in Orchid Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals.
Dr. Prathap C ReddyNow, a third option has come to the fore – join hands with another player in the pharmaceuticals industry. Ranbaxy has already diversified from its forte in manufacturing to service through its subsidiary Fortis, which took a stake in Chennai-based Malar hospitals last year, right in Apollo Hospitals' backyard. Apollo's founder and chairman Dr Prathap C Reddy is not one to take a challenge lying down, and sources indicate that he may be in talks with Rao to counter Ranbaxy's unbidden interest in ORchid. However, this hasn't been officially confirmed.
Matters right now are at the moment of climax – will the David defeat the Goliath, or will history be rewritten in the Indian pharmaceuticals industry? Answers may well emerge this week itself.

 

 

 

 

Friday, January 28, 2011

SPICE JET - BOOK LOSS

Spicejet earlier recommended around Rs.86 which is currently trading around Rs.65 .Since there is sharp increase in the price of ATF which will adversely affect its profitability   recommending to book loss at current price.

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