Friday, August 8, 2014

PATELS AIRTEMP - IMPORTANT UPDATE

Patels Airtemp (India) Ltd is one stock recommended 3 months back around Rs.55 which currently trading around Rs.80. Those who carefully read the latest annual report may surprised to see that on page No .6 company indicated the pending order book as  Rs.136 Lakhs  against an order book of Rs.40 Cr last year. As a share holder ,  I  contacted with the concerned department of company and they clarified that the same was a typographic error . Let us hope  new corrected AR will be uploaded within few days in BSE and Company website . Requesting my readers to avoid any panic selling due to this misunderstanding . I believe ,company is in a firm wicket and better days  ahead for it.

Link to Original Recommendation HERE

Thursday, August 7, 2014

CAPITAL FIRST / M M FORGINGS - UPDATE

 CAPITAL FIRST LTD

This stock recommended just one month back @ Rs.210 which hits its 52 week high today @ Rs.271. Yesterday company reported good numbers for June quarter .Still recommending to HOLD it for long term.

Recommendation Link HERE

  M M FORGINGS LTD

This stock recommended on June 28,2014  @ Rs.187 which hits its 52 week high today @ Rs.284 Yesterday company reported  substantial improvement  in its June quarter numbers .Still recommending to HOLD it for long term.

Recommendation Link HERE





Wednesday, August 6, 2014

FIRST TIME INVESTOR'S GUIDE TO STOCK MARKET

Courtesy : ET

Valuation Parameters You Should Know


Knowing them will enable you to buy stocks at the right price.

PE RATIO: SHARE PRICE/EARNINGS PER SHARE

The price-to-earnings ratio is the most commonly used valuation parameter. A lower PE indicates either an attractively valued stock or one whose prospects are poor. You may compare the current PE of a stock with its own historical valuations (say, 5-year average), the industry average. the industry average, and the PE of a broad market index, such as the Sensex or S&P 500.

PE ratio can be of two types: forward and TTM (trailing 12 months). Forward PE is based on the earnings estimates provided by analysts. The advantage of using it is that stocks respond to the prospects of a stock. The risk is that earnings estimates often go wrong. TTM PE is based on past four quarters' earnings, so it can't be wrong. However, it is backward looking.

PB RATIO: PRICE/BOOK VALUE
The price to book value compares the price of a stock with its book value (value of shares originally issued, plus retained earnings). The book value is a proxy for the liquidation value of the company. It is a good measure for judging the valuations of asset-heavy companies. It is also well suited for banking and other financial services companies. It is not a good measure for asset-light, service firms.
EV/EBITDA: ENTERPRISE VALUE/EBITDA
This valuation ratio compares the enterprise value of a stock with its EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation), a measure of a stock's operating profits. The EPS gets affected by 'other income', which is income not derived from the company's operations, but from, say, sale of an asset. This can artificially inflate the EPS and bring down the PE. This doesn't happen with EBITDA. The latter is, hence, a better reflection of a company's earnings capability. EV or enterprise value measures a company's value. It is the sum of the market value of the firm and its longterm debt, minus its cash.
PEG RATIO: PE RATIO/EPS GROWTH RATE
Here you compare a company's PE ratio with its 3- or 5-year EPS growth rate. Sometimes, a company's PE may appear high compared to its own historical valuation or the industry average. This usually happens with high-growth companies. If you wait for its PE ratio to fall, it may never happen. The PEG ratio, by comparing the PE with the EPS growth rate, offers a justification for investing in such a stock. The PEG ratio should be be below 1. If it is less than 0.5, it is very attractive. 

Before You Invest

No quick gains 
 
At the very outset, investors must accept that the equity markets are not a route to quick riches. "Greed and speed are the worst enemies of sound investing," says investment analyst R Balakrishnan, a former mutual fund CEO. All direct investments in equities should be made with a time horizon of at least 3-5 years. If you ignore this tenet and adopt a high-churn strategy, you will soon come to grief. "You may get lucky on your first punt and make some quick money. Then, inevitably, you will buy something that will keep sinking," says Balakrishnan.

If the markets tank and the uneducated investor is left holding stocks of suspect quality, his corpus value erodes rapidly and does not recover for a long time, if ever. Many investors get so badly singed by their first such brush with the equity markets that they decide to stay away from stocks forever.


Educate yourself

Before you start investing directly in equities, make the effort to educate yourself. "If you won't invest time in educating yourself, then direct stock investing is not for you," says Balakrishnan. Learn the ropes of investing from an unbiased source with no conflict of interest. Says Dhawan: "Many brokerage houses today run short-term learning programmes on equity investing. Brokerages earn more when you transact more. Hence, they have a vested interest in teaching you investment strategies that involve a high churn," he says.

In our view, the approach with which you stand the best chance of making money is one based on fundamental analysis and buy-and-hold. Also, by reading investment classics, you may have the best chance of developing an approach that is time-tested.

Valuation Parameters You Should Know


Knowing them will enable you to buy stocks at the right price.

PE RATIO: SHARE PRICE/EARNINGS PER SHARE

The price-to-earnings ratio is the most commonly used valuation parameter. A lower PE indicates either an attractively valued stock or one whose prospects are poor. You may compare the current PE of a stock with its own historical valuations (say, 5-year average), the industry aver ..

Valuation Parameters You Should Know


Knowing them will enable you to buy stocks at the right price.

PE RATIO: SHARE PRICE/EARNINGS PER SHARE

The price-to-earnings ratio is the most commonly used valuation parameter. A lower PE indicates either an attractively valued stock or one whose prospects are poor. You may compare the current PE of a stock with its own historical valuations (say, 5-year average), the industry aver ..

Valuation Parameters You Should Know


Knowing them will enable you to buy stocks at the right price.

PE RATIO: SHARE PRICE/EARNINGS PER SHARE

The price-to-earnings ratio is the most commonly used valuation parameter. A lower PE indicates either an attractively valued stock or one whose prospects are poor. You may compare the current PE of a stock with its own historical valuations (say, 5-year average), the industry aver ..

Tuesday, August 5, 2014

VESUVIUS INDIA LTD -- UPDATE

VESUVIUS INDIA LTD recommended @ Rs.251 hits its life time high Yesterday @ Rs.784 . Still recommending to HOLD this stock for long term.

Recommendation Link HERE

Saturday, August 2, 2014

MOLD-TEK PACKAGING -MOVING INTO BIG LEAGUE ?



 
 










   



What is common in stocks like Hawkins India ,Cera Sanitary,Wimplast,Selan Exploration,Manjushree Technopack,RS Software ,TTK Prestige ..etc.The obvious answer from an ordinary retail investor may be – “ All these stocks turned as  multi baggers in past 2-3 years” . But for someone with some academic interest in stocks and spending some time to explore ,it is easy to find out the presence of a common name in the public share holding of all these stocks ie, the name of  Dolly Khanna.

Some high profile individual  investor’s are  equally interested in publicity and hence they are frequently appearing in TV interviews and celebrating their purchases through ‘Bulk Deals’ .But on the other hand  some are interested to hide behind curtain ,media-shy  and buying stocks in bit by bit to avoid any unnecessary publicity and market attention.Dolly Khanna belongs to second category and because of this reason ,frankly speaking I have not much idea about the whereabouts of this investor. But if we go through the history of shares owned by this investor ,it is clear that she/he is an investor with Midas touch and with special blessings to pick future multibaggers at an early stage. Having said ,since this investor buying without any publicity and in small lots it is difficult to get information about her/his activities in any stock at an early stage. But now ,this week let us look into one stock in which she entered only recently or may be still in the process of accumulating .As on latest June quarter share holding Dolly Khanna holding  123010 shares in Mold-Tek .This recommendation is not only due to the entry of this investor but taking into consideration of reasonable valuation based on its fundamentals and its potential.

Mold Tek Packaging

This Hyderabad based company is a market leader in Moulded plastic packaging and commanding close to 25% market share. Company mainly concentrating in manufacturing of Pails(cylindrical type  container) used in industries like Paints,Lubricants,food products..etc.This leakage free,easy to handle, and attractively decorated rigid plastic containers already dominated paint and Lubricant industry and replaced metal containers in these sectors.All major companies in these sectors are customers of Mold-Tek which includes Akzo Nobel,Berger, Kansai Nerolac, Castrol, Indianoil, HPCL,Shell,BP ..etc.In the rigid packaging space itself Mold Tek is the pioneer in  In-mould Labelling technology .This technology is used  for decorating plastic surfaces with color and labels to make it more attractive.As of now company manufacturing various products from its seven manufacturing facilities – 4 units in Andra Pradesh ,one each in Daman,Tamilnadu and Maharastra . Moldtek is the only molding company in the world having  in house mold designing mold making, IML label making and ROBOT making facilities.Company initially imported  robots from Taiwan and later started to build robots in-house for its use .A robot made by the company costs only one third of the cost of an imported robot  and its spped is higher than the imported robots.These robots are used in in-mould labelling (IML) process and by this company eliminates human intervention and contamination.( At least some of you may dreaming  Mold Tek as a commercial robot manufacturer too when there is shortage of workers in India few years down the line  - fine ) 

Company now aggressively tapping emerging opportunities from food and beverages sector . Small size IML decorated containers gaining acceptance in packing ice-creams and jams and company started supplying this products to  Vadilal,Amul and HUL..etc.. Due to attractiveness and easy to handle features more and more items from food segment may opt for this product in future.
 Conclusion

For the past many years ,Mold-Tek packaging was a company reporting decent growth but ignored by the market participants and always trades at  lower price earning multiple.There is no bad mark for the company management so far and they  handsomely rewarding its share holders with decent dividend without interruption.I believe ,entry of a highly successful  investor like Dolly Khanna will really change the image of this company and results in sharp re-rating in the years to come .The only negative point is its slightly higher debt with debt  equity ratio of over 1.3 . If its stock price reaches a decent valuation there is options for debt reduction through diluting some equity to investors at a premium. In FY 2013-14 ,Company reported a turnover of Rs.256 Cr ,net profit of Rs.9 Cr and an EPS of Rs.8  .In recent months company’s stock price appreciated  and it may be  due to overall improvement in small-caps and accumulation by the mentioned investor.But ,still this Rs.256 Cr turn over ,profit making  and dividend paying company is available at a market cap of less than Rs.90 Cr.Considering the potential of Industry,innovation led growth,decent management and possibility of a change in the image of company in market circles due to the entry of proven investor , risk takers may take some exposure in this indirect proxy of consumption theme  it at CMP of Rs.78


 Link to Company Website HERE


 Disc: It is safe to assume that I have vested interest in MPL

 



 



Tuesday, July 29, 2014

NATH BIOGENE / AEGIS LOGISTICS / PAPER PRODUCTS - UPDATES

NATH BIOGENE INDIA LTD

This stock earlier recommended @ Rs.50, which hits its life time high today @ Rs.138 .Now company reported its June quarter numbers where the top line is Rs.119 Cr and bottom line is Rs.30 Cr . Company reported a quarterly EPS of Rs.19 in Q1 of 2014-15 against Rs.14 for the same period of last year.Still recommending to HOLD it for long term.


Recommendation Link HERE

AEGIS LOGISTICS LTD

This stock recommended @ Rs.125 hits its 52 week high @ Rs.304 .Those with below average risk appetite may sell partially and hold the remaining quantity as cost free.Others can still HOLD it.

Recommendation Link HERE


PAPER PRODUCTS LTD

This stock recommended @ Rs.61 about 9 months back which now  hits its 52 week high @ Rs.176 . Still recommending to HOLD it for long term

 Recommendation Link HERE








Saturday, July 26, 2014

What is the difference between investing and trading ?

As I mentioned last week , new stock suggestions will be posted only on First and Third Saturday's of every month .Meanwhile , in recent times receiving lot of mails from new entrants in stock market who are still confused about many basic terms and words using here.The below posting is only for such newbies and most of them even may cut and paste from various sources ,but I think it is helpful for them.
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Courtesy :Investopedia


Investing and trading are two very different methods of attempting to profit in the financial markets. The goal of investing is to gradually build wealth over an extended period of time through the buying and holding  of a portfolio of stocks, baskets of stocks, mutual funds, bonds and other investment instruments. Investors often enhance their profits through compounding , or reinvesting any profits and dividends into additional shares of stock. Investments are often held for a period of years, or even decades, taking advantage of perks like interest, dividends and stock splits along the way. While markets inevitably fluctuate, investors will "ride out" the downtrends with the expectation that prices will rebound and any losses will eventually be recovered. Investors are typically more concerned with market fundamentals, such as Price Earning Ratios( P/E) and management forecasts.

Trading, on the other hand, involves the more frequent buying and selling of stock, commodities, or other instruments, with the goal of generating returns that outperform buy-and-hold investing. While investors may be content with a 10 to 15% annual return, traders might seek a 10% return each month. Trading profits are generated through buying at a lower price and selling at a higher price within a relatively short period of time. The reverse is also true: trading profits are made by selling at a higher price and buying to cover at a lower price (known as "Selling Short") to profit in falling markets. Where buy-and-hold investors wait out less profitable positions, traders must make profits (or take losses) within a specified period of time, and often use a protective stop loss order to automatically close out losing positions at a predetermined price level. Traders often employ technical analysis tools, such as moving averages and stochastic oscillators, to find high-probability trading setups.

 A trader's "style" refers to the time frame or holding period in which stocks, commodities or other trading instruments are bought and sold. Traders generally fall into one of four categories:

  • Position Trader – positions are held from months to years
  • Swing Trader – positions are held from days to weeks
  • Day Trader – positions are held throughout the day only with no overnight positions
  • Scalp Trader – positions are held for seconds to minutes with no overnight positions

Traders often choose their trading style based on factors including: account size, amount of time that can be dedicated to trading, level of trading experience, personality and risk tolerance. Both investors and traders seek profits through market participation. In general, investors seek larger returns over an extended period through buying and holding. Traders, by contrast, take advantage of both rising and falling markets to enter and exit positions over a shorter time frame, taking smaller, more frequent profits.



Thursday, July 24, 2014

APAR INDUSTRIES / CENTUM ELECTRONICS - UPDATES

APAR INDUSTRIES  

This stock recommended @ Rs.145 which hits its 52 week high  today @  Rs.402 .Yesterday ,HDFC Mutual Fund bought 4 lakhs shares of this company at an average price of Rs.365.

Recommendation Link HERE

CENTUM ELECTRONICS  recommended @ Rs.88 currently trading around its life time high  of Rs.412 .On 22/07/2014 ,HDFC Mutual Fund bought 3.71 lakhs shares of this company at an average price of Rs.360.

Still recommending to HOLD it

Recommendation Link HERE

Tuesday, July 22, 2014

CAPLIN POINT LABORATORIES LTD - UPDATE

CAPLIN POINT LABORATORIES - This pharma stock recommended about 6 months back @ Rs.86 which hits its lifetime high today @  Rs.339 and closed in upper circuit.Stock already turned as a 4 bagger during this short period .Those with some risk appetite can still  HOLD it .

Recommendation Link HERE

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