Quality of promoter is very important while selecting stocks
for long term hold.Possibility of frauds and fabricated results are very high
when the mood in the street is bullish with higher retail participation.Generally , in a bull market , promoters tend to show
good results in few quarters to boost share price either for their own exit or
to raise fund at higher price .So ,selecting a stock during bull phase need
extreme care and we should look beyond the published results and frequent
announcements. Considering all these factors ,re-looking into a company which I
recommended earlier and still believe there is lot of steam left in long term.
Patels Airtemp (PAT) is an Ahmedabad based company manufacturing Heat
exchangers,Pressure Vessels,Refrigeration and Air Conditioning equipments.Their
products are mainly used in industries like Chemical, Power,Refinery,Cement,Fertilizer
and Petro Chemicals..etc.For the past many years lot of projects from these
sectors were stuck due to various reasons like environment clearance ..etc
which is expected to move on in near future. Strict pollution control norms
implementing in developed countries helping Indian chemicals manufactures to
boost their export by adding additional capacities here.India is expected to
grow as a global hub of chemicals and pharmaceuticals in the years to come.
Stable price of crude and crude derivatives will help the growth of
petrochemical industry . All such developments will indirectly help companies
like Patels Airtemp to grow business. Last year company entered into a long term
supply arrangements with a leading global manufacturer of heat exchangers for
supply of this product with stringent quality standards.
Revival in user industries and effect of foreign supply agreement is
already started to reflect in its order book position. As on 31 March 2014 ,
company have confirmed orders worth Rs.136 Cr ( Rs.40 Cr order book in previous year) which is highest ever in its
history . This order book giving comfortable visibility for next few years. Aggressive
purchasing of shares by promoters from open market is another factor which increasing the confidence level .For the past
one years promoters are hiking their stake through open market purchases and
same is still continuing even @ Rs.129 .(
Check purchase disclosures HERE and HERE) .Last year company paid back its entire long term debt and there
is no long term borrowings in its books as on 31 March 2014.We know , the past
2-3 years were very difficult for any company operating in capital goods sector
. But company paid back all its long term loans and secured the highest ever
order book during this period, which is very important point to note. I believe
,company is at the tip of an inflection point and the future will be far better
than the past . Since I have already posted about this company just six months
back , not explaining further.
Company reported a top-line of Rs.70 Cr , net profit of Rs.4.67 Cr and an
EPS of Rs. 9.20 in last FY .PAT is an uninterrupted dividend payer for the past
seven years and paid 20 % in FY 2013-14. This is one of my preferred stocks from
this sector which is currently trading around Rs.123 and listed only in BSE.
Link to Company Website HERE
Disc: Holding PAT.
Link to Company Website HERE
Disc: Holding PAT.
Please share your view on amco India which you recommended at 36
ReplyDeleteLater suggested to exit and not postive at present
DeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteDear Rahul
DeleteWhile analysing any information for investment purpose, you should take utmost care .A single letter may change decisions like in this case.I never mentioned to Sell AIMCO but the above messagewas about AMCO INDIA, look once again.
Pls share ur views on ybrant digital and international paper.
ReplyDeleteNot tracking both
DeleteSir what's your view on Polyplex corp from a 2 year perspective? What are the medium term triggers for the stock?
ReplyDeleteDo you also track aro granites? what's your view on this?
Not a supporter of time bounded investment in stock market
DeleteNot tracking Aro granite specifically but not very postive on Granite Industry in general.
Sir, can I know what are your concerns with respect to Granite industry?
DeleteMol teck packing has run up a lot. Still can we buy or wait for some correction
ReplyDeleteRisk level is different at different price points .Not expecting any deep correction in it.
DeleteSir your view on Kesar Terminals ?
ReplyDeleteNot tracking it
DeletePlease Try to avoid commenting as Anonymous
ReplyDeleteVery good pick
ReplyDeleteSir ji
ReplyDeleteOur poly plex is falling continously ... why?
Not known about any negative. Actually fall in crude price is positive
DeleteHi Sir, Is it a turnaround company? Mar '10 sales are around 70 cr and Mar '14 sales are same 70 crs... No growth from past 4 years...
ReplyDeleteI never used the word 'Turnaround' ,because it never reported loss.
DeleteIt is very easy to ignore its flat sales, but one should understant the situation of industry for past 4-5 years in which this company is operating . You will get a clear picture by comparing the financials of its close rival GEI Industrial Systems with this company
For me , company could report even a flat sale in last few years itself is big positive considering the situation of Industry and I clearly mentioned this suggestion is based on the expected future and not on the past.
Thank you for your kind clarification...will research further...
DeleteSir please let us know your view on agarwal industrial corporation ltd trading @ 102 manufacturer of bitumen and working in logistics also. ...
ReplyDeleteWhat about pondy oxide ......
Sir please give your views on Arvind remedies and GAEL Thanking you
ReplyDeleteMajor risk of Arvind Remedies is its business model .They are mailnly supplying to state governments against tender based orders .Uncertainity is higher in such a business model .
DeleteNot tracking GAEL
Hi VP Sir,
ReplyDeleteWhats your view on NCC rights issues.... and engineer india which has zero debit.
Sorry ..Not tracking NCC
DeleteWats your view on Lloyd Electric
ReplyDeleteStrongly agree with ur views on patel airtemp Sir
ReplyDeleteDear VP Sir,
ReplyDeleteIf you follow Mindteck, then pl provide ur views for one year holding for this stock.
One can hold Mindteck
DeleteSir, please share your views on caplin point
ReplyDeleteStock already gained 5 times from the recommended level.One can still HOLD
DeleteDear VP sir,
ReplyDeletePlease provide your views on the recent downturn in Suzlon and Bilcare - is this a good opportunity to accumulate again?
Also provide your views on Kitex Garments.
Posting it for the 4th time. Kindly approve the comment sir.Your views are a valuable in my portfolio strategy.
Practically difficult to repeat answering same questions frequently .Just check what I suggested to those raise questions below the posting of LAOPALA UPDATE AND SMS PHARMA UPDATE in last week
Deletesir what is view on capital trust. one of your old recommendation
ReplyDeletemost respected sir,
ReplyDeleteyour view on patel logistics. company has mcap of 100 cr as against turnover of 650 cr.
vp sir lloyd elec is somewhat a parallel to the better valued growth stock 'PAT' you rec.However will appreciate your views for a long term switch fromLLoyd to PAT??
ReplyDeleteSir,
ReplyDeleteYour view on incap ltd
Regards
Vishnu
is jain irrigation is suitable for fresh investments.checked your old rec.
ReplyDeleteThere is some structural changes happening in the business model of Micro Irrigation companies in India.Eralier customers need to pay only the subsidy minus amount to companies for implementing projects .Due to delay in subsidy payment many of the players stopped this method and now the clients should pay the full amount and then clients itself should collect subsidy from government. Till farmers familiarise with and accepting this method there will be some slow growth phase through which many of the companies are passing now.
DeleteVP sir,
DeleteYou recommend to buy...
Then inform to sell/partial sell at the right time...
And even share important information of this type on questions from numerous followers...
After all this hard work, even reply patiently to some 'anonymous' critic...
All I can say is 'Thank you'
- Sandeep
Thank you for your recommendation.
ReplyDeleteHello VP Sir,
ReplyDeleteWhat is your view on Rico Auto and Rubfila International?
Regards,
Mohit
Not tracking Rico
DeletePositive on Rubfila
Sir, please share your views on NBCC.
ReplyDeleteCurrent price of NBCC is around Rs.660 which earlier recommended in the below link @ Rs.93
Deletehttp://value-picks.blogspot.in/2012/04/national-buildings-construction.html
AT CMP , neutral on it.
Respected SIr,
ReplyDeleteCan I buisy Lao Pala at CMP.I know u had recommended it earlier and went all the way to 1668 but since the stock split has happened it chas came down.
Also Is Capital First still a buy at CMP
lease please do reply
Dear
DeleteLaopala is a decent company with good brand , operating cash flow, declining debt level ..etc...etc.
This stock originally recommended around Rs.70 before stock split which means it already appreciated more than 20 times (adjusted to stock split) . So while buying a stock at this much price difference you should be aware about the difference in risk level at both these price points and decide whether your situation is suitable to bear the same and only then act accordingly.
dear vp sir,
ReplyDeleteearlier u suggested kirloskar engine at cmp 182, know at current cmp can i invest in it
Above anser is applicable to this one too
DeleteDear Sir your view on Tilak Nagar Industries
ReplyDeleteSir
ReplyDeletePls share your view on Mayur Uniquoters for long term,recently Westbridge and a MF have taken stake in.
Rgds
Positive on this stock for long term
DeleteSir any views on Talbros Auto & Gabriel? Also do you like Shakti pumps at cmp? I hope my comments are published for this time....
ReplyDeletePositive on Talbros Auto
DeleteNot tracking Gabriel India
One can Hold Shakti Pump
Your kind view on Delta Corp please
ReplyDeleteHi Sir,
ReplyDeletePlease share your views on poddar developers ltd.
Not tracking above two
DeleteHi, your views on shakti pumps (india) ltd?
ReplyDeleteAnswered above
DeleteWhats your view on Oberoi for long term? Can I buy it?
ReplyDeleteNot tracking it .Mahindra Lifespace and Godrej Properties are decent cos from same sector
DeleteEarlier you suggested Asian Grantine and NOW saying not tracking Aro Granito & not bullish on Indian Granite Industry; what a misleading person.!
ReplyDeleteDear
ReplyDeleteBefore criticizing anyone , we should ensure we are 100 % correct.Otherwise it is better to keep silent. I never suggested any company named Asian Granite but suggested one company named Asian Granito which is a known producer of different kind of Tiles. It is not a Granite Company and more than 90 % income coming from Tiles.
Granite is an Industry without any branding power as against Tiles and hence there is hardly any entry barrier .
In addition to that till there is a concrete law regarding natural resources mining including Coal, Granite ..etc , there is some risk from that angle is also there .
Above all , If I am correct granite industry is going through tough time in past many years and there is no big change happened now ( You will get an idea from the below Link)
http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/andhra-pradesh/andhra-pradesh-granite-industry-in-dire-straits/article5231347.ece
For the past few days there is lot of messages about this specific company from many or single 'Anonymous' , but I could not find anything special in a company especially from an Operating Cash flow negative one. If anybody know any interesting development or policy announcement positively affecting this industry is going to happen ,please comment here which will be helpful for others too.
Hi,
ReplyDeleteWhy to entertain such comments if they are not having guts to comeout and post by their identity.
I see every other day such fake people are posting spams.
Replying to them will not stop them from doing it.
Such post are carried but haters, spread by fools and believed by idiots. We believe in you sir but first we should convince ourself before we buy however there are some ppl who bindly invest and later criticise. I think GTS helps us here.
My mail box and message box flooded with questions about this stock in past few days .Two times mentioned I am not strictly tracking it but again mails ..and messages .....Replied just to stop this :)
DeleteSir, just a suggestion, kindly block such email addresses (after going through the "options" inbuilt by email providers).
DeleteIt is unfair for such posters to bother you like this.
VP Sir,
DeleteTruly appreciate all your efforts in comprehensive research and guidance. Adding to that you are available to respond to all the comments/ requests. Its truly sad to see people criticizing such an amount of work that is benefiting so many people.
You are one of the few, where I have learnt to have an open mindset, have clarity of thought, spread knowledge on how you do things... Hats off and yes, no one would wonder, if you do not respond to anonymous criticizers :):)
Dear vp sir,
ReplyDeletePls give ur view on KENAMETAL & FORBES
Thks in advance
Positive on Kennametal hich recommended earlier
DeleteNot tracking Forbes
Sir,
ReplyDeleteYour answer on granite industry was clear last time also. Seems like this guy is just speculating in this counter n does not understand the difference between granite n tiles...
Please Can you share your views on Manappuram finance.. its an nbfc with high dividend yield..available around 1 time book n are looking to diversify from gold loans business ..
Not strictly tracking Manappuram Fin.
DeleteHi VP sir,
ReplyDeleteWhats ur view on Anik Industries and Tantia Constructions.
Will be awaiting for your reply... Thanks a ton !!!
Sir your view of PTC o
ReplyDeleteIndia financial ltd
Sir,
ReplyDeleteYour views on Muthoot Finance
Not tracking above cos.
DeleteSir,
ReplyDeleteThanks for fantastic picks as always. Can you advise if we can enter guj borosil at cmp.
Thanks
Stock recommended @ Rs.8.Not suggesting fresh entry now.
DeletePlease give your opinion on wanbury ltd
ReplyDeleteNot strictly tracking . If I am correct, C-Pink is a popular brand owned by this company but mismanagement is the issue of this company.
DeleteHi Sir,
ReplyDeleteWith an order book of worth 130+ cr the future looks bright but a company executing 40 cr worth order suddenly have to handle 3 times of it, raises few question marks .... (considering that the order delivery is this fiscal year )
1. So they have the capacity in the current system to implement it on time.
2. Or do they need to raise more funds in order to create a system which can support it.
Having a good order book but not able to execute it or take loans in order to expand the current production facility can be a issue in this case ? Please share your views .
L&T is getting orders for crores and crores each year. Do you thinking all these are executed directly by themselves.Fabrication works may subcontracted and quality inspection done directly ,if necessary. Don't think all these orders will be executed in one or two quarters.
DeleteSir, what is your view on KEC international and Jyoti structures? I am holding it @122 and @59 respectively.
ReplyDeleteSir what ur view about haldyn glass
ReplyDeleteNot tracking above cos
DeleteSir, really appreciate all your extensive research and detail. Just wanted to know your thoughts on Nilkamal. Do you think the announcement of just 10-15% is bad sentiment for the stock?
ReplyDeleteOne can Hold with a long term view
DeleteSir,
ReplyDeleteI requested your view on incap ltd, but you seems to have missed my query,
Please do comment on this.
Regards
Sorry Not tracking Incap
DeleteGood morning, appreciate your views on westlife development. Thanks
ReplyDeleteCompany's performance not justifying its price eventhough they own India rights of a great brand.
Deletebasant agro tech...sell hold or buy more?plz reply
ReplyDeleteSuggested around Rs.3 . Neutral at CMP
DeleteSir, you had recommended Aries Agro multiple times & though the stock has not moved, the results have been fairly good. (From 150 Crores to 300 Crores in last 4 years).
ReplyDeleteIt would be great if you could share your updated views on the same.
Stock not moved even when this company performed well. I think people misjudged this company as a fertliser company and assaigned low P/E
DeletePlz share your view on Capital first. Can I enter at cmp. I hope I get lucky to get your valuable reply. Thanks in advance.
ReplyDeleteAnswer given above for Laopala is applicable here too
DeleteHi VP Sir,
ReplyDeleteCan you please have a look at below stock and provide ur expert advice.
Natural Capsule
National Fittings Ltd
Glance Finance.
Have sorted above stock based on following criteria:
Good Sales growth
More then 50 promoter holding
Debt to equity is less then 1
Good year on year profit
Your view will help me analyzing the stocks... Thanks in advance.
Not strictly tracking any of these cos. Natural Capsules is in a sector with reasonable potential ,but its bottomline is stagnant for past many years which raises questions about managements ability.
DeleteDear VP sir,
ReplyDeleteCan you pls provide your view on idbi bank and Sharon bio science. Sharon bio has corrected for past 2 weeks, can we enter at this range.
Thanks in advance.
Not tracking both stocks.
Deletesir whats ur view for hexaware and manjushree ??
ReplyDeleteI believe, there is better IT plays compared with Hexaware
DeleteNot tracking Manjushree
Dear Sir, The success of Havells's stock encouraged me to think of another brand from same industry ANCHOR ( by PANASONIC). Pls share the script name if it is listed.
ReplyDeletethanks Deepak
It is a direct Subsidiary of Panasonic Corporation . not listed here.
DeleteDear Sir
ReplyDeleteCould you please advise your view on Cairn India, Wonderla & Shirpur Gold
Patels Airtemp is also on upper circuit today with 20% gain. For last 3 months, I have been trying to buy stocks suggested by you. Unfortunately, I have never been able to buy at the cmp recommended by you. The only stock, I have been able to purchase is "Polyplex" at 268 and this is giving negative returns to me. :-(
ReplyDeleteI truely appreciate the work you are doing n picking the real solud businesses for the masses.could toy please share your thoughts ob Century plywood and Grauer and Weil
ReplyDeleteNot tracking both stocks
DeleteDear VP sir,
ReplyDeleteRead that you are positive on Rubfila...Rubber prices are at record low and many remain so for next few years..
Can u pls expain its impact
David
Banglore
Don't think the entire benefit of correction in raw material price will directly reflect in Rubfila's books. Product price may also dip . Anyway , expecting some improvement in margins.
DeleteDear Sir, What's your views on Lloyd electric and Fedder lloyd. Appreciate it if you can share your views on those. Thanks!!!
ReplyDeleteFrom White Goods space ,IFB Industries Ltd is my first priority
DeleteHi sir i buy rajoo eng ltd pls suggest me what should i do
ReplyDeleteHi VP sir
ReplyDeleteWhat is your View On Kwality Dairy , Company is trading at PE 7 against industry PE of 22 , Companies Business Expanding at good rate ,
I know u might be not tracking it , But please Provide Your Views Regarding it
Not sure about promoter quality , hence no comments
DeleteCould you please comment on Shardha crop care at CMP for long-term investment
ReplyDeleteNot tracking it
DeleteCan we buy camlin fin @cmp sir
ReplyDeleteStock appreciated almost 10 times from recommended level.Camlin Fine recommended @ Rs.56 when its FV were Rs.10 ,Now it splitted in 10:1 ratio and currently trading @ Rs.56
ReplyDeleteNeutral at CMP
Sir,
ReplyDeleteDo you track Man Industries. Very similar in profile, (as it appears to me) with good orders in hand. Regular dividend paying, decent promoters (cannot vouch) have execution capacity and capability. They are also buying from the open market 5% allowed. Due to the space they are in, the stock has fallen quite a bit. Debt to equity of 0.6.
Would you suggest the stock?
Thanks in advance.
Not tracking it
DeleteHello vp sir,
ReplyDeleteI need your assistance about following stocks which i have kept in my portfolio for long term.please give your present view
1. Gujarat borosil @28.50
2. Polyplex@292
3. Vks project@0.45
4.GTL Infrastructure@3.35
Pl suggest sir
Thanks
Already posted about two stocks, not tracking other two
DeleteIn your second post regarding Patel AIrtemp, you had informed us that while going through the annual report, it was noted that pending order of 136 lacs against confirmed order of 40 crores. You said that when you contacted the company, they said it was just a typing mistake. Now, we can see confirmed orders of 136 crores. Is it a coincidence?
ReplyDeleteCompany already issued a clarification in this matter in BSE
Deletehttp://www.bseindia.com/corporates/anndet_new.aspx?newsid=3a20ae50-ab20-491d-8a7a-b0d1169275ca
Then re-filed the AR with correct figures
Sir Patel Airtemp has appreciated a lot from your Recommended Price .Is the stock is still hold,Fresh Buy or one can book Profit.Sir Please Suggest
ReplyDeleteMy stock recommendations are not intended for 4 days hold.
Deletewhat are your views about deccan goldmines?
ReplyDeleteDear VP,
ReplyDeleteWhat is your views on Pennar Industries (BSE: 513228) !!.
Dear VP
ReplyDeleteCame to know about this web site very very late, just 3 days back, and going thru al the blogs, i feel i have missed a lot.
kumar