Courtesy : Investopedia, Stockopedia
VALUE TRAP
DEFINITION of 'Value Trap'
A stock that appears to be cheap
because the stock has been trading at low multiples of earnings, cash flow or
book value for an extended time period. Stock traps attract investors who are
looking for a bargain because these stocks are inexpensive. The trap springs
when investors buy into the company at low prices and the stock never improves.
Trading that occurs at low multiples of earnings, cash flow or book value for
long periods of time might indicate that the company or the entire sector is in
trouble, and that stock prices may not move higher.
Companies, and
even sectors, can be doomed, because of situations such as the inability to
survive competition, the inability to generate substantial and consistent
profits, the lack of new products or earnings growth, or ineffective
management. Often, a value trap appears to be such a good deal that investors
become confused when the stock fails to perform. As with any investment
decision, thorough research and evaluation is recommended before investing in
any company that appears cheap when reviewing its relevant performance metrics.
How to avoid Value Traps...
Of course, it's easy to say with hindsight that a failed investment was a value-trap but are there any ways to flag this in advance? Fundamentally, the key to avoiding value traps is doing your homework and exercising caution when approaching enticing investment prospects. It's crucial to be as precise as possible about intrinsic value through fundamental bottom-up company analysis. The other issue is that it's important to have an adequate margin of safety since this is the value investor's buffer against errors in the intrinsic value calculation. However, beyond that, there are some common fact-patterns that it's worth watching out for....Few Signs that Your Stock May be a Value Trap
1.
Is the sector in long-term secular decline?
A company may simply be serving a
market that no longer exists in the way it used to. No matter how good the
company, it will need a fair wind behind it eventually and and if the sector
itself is dying, it's likely to be a huge battle to realize value. From a
demand perspective, it's important to distinguish between cyclical
and secular declines. In the former case, short-term demand will
rebound with an improved economy. In the latter case, demand is in long-term
decline (e.g. due to societal and demographic changes), which means that the
remaining players are left to fight for a share of an ever-decreasing pie.
2. Is the risk of
technological obsolescence high?
Technological progress can radically reshape an industry and
its product lines - this can have a major impact on the life cycle and
profitability of a firm .One might assume that a stock is cheap enough to
compensate for decreasing cash flow but, sometimes, cash flows hits a tipping
point and drops off faster than you expect.
3.
Is the company’s business model fundamentally flawed?
Sometimes, a company may simply be
serving a market that no longer exists, or at a price-point that is no longer
relevant, given competition and/or new substitutes for the product.
4. Is there excessive debt on the
books?
More often
than not, financial leverage magnifies the pain of a value trap. Limited
or no financial leverage gives firms access to the the most precious commodity
of all - time! A company with no debt is unlikely to go under, barring a major
catastrophe (e.g. a massive legal settlement against it). On the other hand,
excessive leverage can destroy even a great company. For a good margin of
safety, the debt to equity ratio should be as low as possible and interest cover should be comfortable
5.
Is the accounting flawed or overly aggressive ?
It's best
to stay away from companies where aggressive or dubious accounting is employed.
You should be “triply careful”
whenever management uses some metric that they define, rather than conventional
metrics .
6. Are there excessive earnings-estimate revisions?
7.
Is competition escalating?
Be careful of companies facing
increasingly stiff competition. Is there a tendency for the industry to compete
on price to squeeze margins? If there are limited barriers to entry and a
company is unable to differentiate itself, then it's possible that the market
structure has simply moved against it - it may never recover the glory years of
the past. One way to test this is to compare the historic profit margin trend
over the last 10 years. If the profit margins are decreasing, this may suggests
the company is unable to pass increasing costs onto its customers due to
increased price competition
8.
Is the product a consumer fad?
Another sign of a possible value
trap is a product that is subject to consumer fashion or whims. Evolving consumer
tastes and demand may mean that the market for the product is just a short-term
phenomenon
9. Are there any worrying
corporate governance noises?
It's worth checking for any history
or noise that suggests minority shareholders might be getting a raw deal .
Dear VP sir,
ReplyDeleteHappy new year, you have a amazing foresight to predict the companies future, I have been following you for last around 1 year, I was a more of a trader, where I missed all good companies trading in and out, as of now missed a good opportunit to create wealth, now I have planned to turn to a long term investor,I have picked some companies for long term can you please give your views on long term, 1. Skm egg. 2.atul auto, 3. Gruh fiance, 4. Repco home finance, can I be able to create a good amount of wealth from these. Thanks shailesh
Detailed views already expressed about SKM and Atul auto .
DeleteGruh - Not tracking
Repco Home - Already Expressed positive view as comment around Rs.300
Dear VP,
ReplyDeleteThanks for sharing such a wonderful useful information with us.
Very good topic sir, many of investors were trapped in this value trap. Every investor should read this, before jumping into a stock.
ReplyDeleteDear sir thanku for ur guidance. Gvk power nd infra is a value trap. Ur view Pls ?
ReplyDeleteRespected Sir,
ReplyDeleteWish you a happy and prosperous new year.Hope you continue to helo small investors like us as we have leard a lot from you and will continue dng so.
Sir, I have added SKM at belwo 100 price....But i have done research on this company and gone through yor viws o skm...I feel its a awesome company to own for long term..
Sir Could you plz plz let me know if I can add more at CMP.
Your reply will also help people who have not yet invested but are are willing to invest in this gem...
Plz plz reply sir...
Thanks in Advance Sir
Rahul
Not sure why you are not in a position to take a decision after studying the company in details . Whether any stock is suitable or not is a decision only the investor can take based on his own risk taking capacity which is known only to him /her. Whatever I can do is - share whatever I know about the company .
DeleteTake a call after own due -diligence
VP Sir,
ReplyDeleteI am owning Gujarat Borosil from 22 levels......Sir do you think that the recent developments in the solar sector will help Monopoly players like borosil...Also sir is there a chnage of competition from chinese player and will it impact borosil in a big way or small way......
Plz do reply sir....as i want to invest more in GBorosil.
Thanks in advance
Pls check the current status of gas supply related issue
DeleteDear VP Sir,
DeleteCould you explain the relationship between Gujarat Borosil performance and Gas Supply
http://archive.financialexpress.com/news/industrial-units-in-south-gujarat-stare-at-58-pct-cut-in-natural-gas-supplies/1287968
DeleteThank you sir for these very useful informative articles.
ReplyDeleteThank you for the educative post.
ReplyDeleteRegards
Roshni
Thank you sir for valuable guidelines
ReplyDeleteSir thank you very much for the wonderful column, we are really indebted to your free service. Sir , SEBI changes the circuit levels for scripts from 20% to 10% or from 10% to 5 % or 5% to 2% .how will we know that the circuit is going to change in advance. Do they publish anywhere?? Kindly answer when you are free.Thank you.
ReplyDeleteIt is not SEBI fixing this , but the exchanges.
DeleteFrankly speaking I don't know the benchmark they are considering to change circuit filters.Sometime they will reduce a 20 % circuit to 10 % once the stock hit two consecutive 20 % filter , but in some other cases 5 % circuits increased to 10 or 20
;)
Can one park his money in tata Elxsi and forget .. Say 1% of his networth ..
ReplyDeleteIts altogether in a different league ..no competition n brand name ..
Look at marico kaya- a different business n competition n brand name .. Up 5 times
In my opinion . there is no stock to buy and forget . Each company's business should be monitored periodically and take decisions accordingly
DeleteSir ur view on Canfin homes at cmp ..also co is proposng a right...
ReplyDeletealso give overall view on hosing fin co.
Canfin is a stock suggested around Rs.145
DeleteAbout Rights issue
Nothing to comment about that before company deciding size of the rights issue, ratio, price ..etc
Dear Vp.
ReplyDeleteThanks for this great article...
Regards.
Www.screener.in is a good site to check compny details compared to moneycontrol.
ReplyDeleteAm not sure vp sir post this :)
Sir thanks for sharing valuable information
ReplyDelete..please suggest on HCC, punjlloyd, birla precision
Sirji plz give us your view on venkys
ReplyDeleteDear sir please advise ..monte Carlo good to invest ??
ReplyDeleteNot tracking any of the above mentioned stocks
ReplyDeleteDear VP,
ReplyDeleteVALUE TRAP - nice lesson for investors to start 2015. Thanks for publishing this.
Kind regards,
Chandrashekara
Hi,
ReplyDeleteGood evening,
Could you please let me know your views on IL AND FS engineering.
Thanks
Positive for long term
Deletethank you VP Sir. This is enhancing our learning by a great deal.
ReplyDeletesir please reply your view on eco recycling one can buy at this level
ReplyDeletethank you
Earlier suggested @ Rs.25 , nothing to add at this point.
DeleteIs it advisable to buy Nesco & Mayur uniqoter at current level for long term ?
ReplyDeleteMayur is a good company for long term investors
DeleteNot tracking Nesco
sir you view on jb chemicals. thanks
ReplyDeleteNeutral on JB Chem
DeleteSir
ReplyDeletewhats your view about Bal Pharma?
Rgds
Sir, can I please know your view on Plastiblends. The CMP is 255 with a 52 week H/L of 312/93. The company has consistently reported increase in sales from 2005 onwards with OPM of 10%+, has been a consistent dividend payer. The book value is 116, zero secured debt and 31 crores of unsecured debt. The company has reserves of 130 crores and equity of 6.5 crores
ReplyDeletePls share our view on Sharon bio medi ltd
ReplyDeleteFor long term
Sir, your views on IG Petro please.It is an established market leader in Phthalic Anhydride (PAN) with strong recognition, excellent plant facilities and international standards of Phthalic Anhydride (PAN). Equipped with the third largest capacity in the world at a single location, the Company has the ability to meet competition not only in the local market but also in the international market. Phthalic Anhydride (PAN) is used in industries such as flexible PVC, plastics, paints, construction, transportation and marine
ReplyDeleteNot tracking above mentioned stocks . While investing in commodity type business one should learn the international price trend and cycle of the product.
Deletedear sir
ReplyDeletepls share ur view on Capital first , it is not moving with other finance companys like repco , bajaj, indiabulls etc and trading at low price to book. pls suggest i hold a good quantity. IS it a value trap
I can only say about company fundamentals .Price movement is purely supply demand driven which is beyond my control
DeleteSir ur view on Axis cades at cmp ..its looking good having great mgmt…..also in defence.
ReplyDeleteany negatives from ur side ..i knew it ran up substantially but may be a further rewarding
Business prospects of company is not bad .In case of an entry at current price, take a call based om own risk profile.
ReplyDeleteSir, may I know your views on a) Madhav Marbles & Granites Ltd and b) DCM Shriram ltd?
ReplyDeleteVP Sir I would love your views on Sutlej Textiles. It is a Rajasthan based company belonging to the KK Birla group. It is the largest producer and exporter of value added synthetic and blended dyed spun yarn in the country. It endured the 2008 crisis with only its debt increasing, but the debt levels are coming down. Can Textile sector be considered as long term bet? Will you consider Sutlej a valuepick?
ReplyDeleteSir your views on Indo count industries?
ReplyDeleteNot tracking above cos
DeleteDear Sir, i'm holding IFB industries, Please let me know further prospectus
ReplyDeleteOne can Hold IFB Ind.
DeleteI was thinking of taking a personal loan of 5lacs at 14% and invest in SKM Eggs for a long term. I will be able to pay the EMI from my salary.
ReplyDeleteDo you think it is a good strategy?
I know you don't like to give personal advice, however I appreciate your knowledge and wisdom and hence would like to get your feedback.
Thanks.
I never advice any retail investor to buy shares of any company using loaned funds . Invest whatever you left after savings.
DeleteWhy do you want to avail loan for that! !!!!!! Instead invest the same emi amount in sip.the benefits will be the same without any risk. This is my personal opinion. .....
DeleteVery well said VP sir ! I too agree with you.
DeleteVery valuable advice. Hats off !!
Sir what is view on associated ALCHOLOL and Brewers ltd seems interesting on hist data basis
ReplyDeleteNot tracking it
DeleteSir please your view on maxwell ind . Mirza and carborundum universal .sintex. please reply abkibar
ReplyDeleteCarborundum is not a bad company , but one need to show patience till some revival in its user industries
DeleteSintex is a low risk one at this point
Not tracking other two
Sir, wat are ur views about arrow coated promoters selling shares in open market?? is it negative for the share
ReplyDeleteDepends on the genuine reason of selling
DeleteSir, Has Arrow given any official reason for the same.......rgds
DeleteReason they explained in BSE site . But investors will be always suspicious and nervous in these type cases and we can't blame them . This suspicion may last long at least till the result .
DeleteDear Sir,
ReplyDeleteI wanted your view on Tata power and Intellect design arena. I am a long term investor and would like to know if it's good to enter in these stocks at current levels?
Not tracking it
DeleteHi VP sir,
ReplyDeletePlease share your views on Alok Industries ltd.
If you are looking into textile space , I think , there is many better alternatives.
DeleteSir, wish you a happy pongal.. Framers are pride to our nation.. You being a farmer and doing a selfless work makes ahead from others.. Live long with all wealth and health.. Let's continue to learn from you sir!
ReplyDeleteVP Sir, Wish you and your family a Happy Pongal.. I also wish all other readers of this blog a Happy Pongal...
ReplyDeleteThanks
Thanks and same to all my readers
DeleteDear VP Sir,
ReplyDeleteNeed ur suggestion on Provogue and Prozone, also wats the future of Sugar stocks.
thanks,
Ram
Not tracking Provouge or Prozone
DeleteSugar stocks not seems as compelling buy at this point
Hello Sir,
ReplyDeleteYour views on hindustan tin please. . .
No change in previous view
DeleteCan you please explain why Hindustan Tin Works is not one such value trap? Packaging industry is moving to plastic more and more (with food grade plastic). I am looking for your expert analysis on this.
ReplyDeleteThe stock is refusing to move above Rs 80 now.
My opinion about changing trend to plastic already explained in posting about Hind Tin
DeleteSir, Neverdays i have been seeing in some bakerys trend is changing Plum cakes in small round Tin boxes, some famous Sweet shops selling some of its good swwets in Tin boxes. In Chennai there is a famous swwet shop Krishna Sweets, they are selling one of its sweet Cashew Bites in Tin boxes, which makes it attractive too. Got a sense of this from the various markeets, just wanted to share with you. Thanks a lot for guiding us always
DeleteThanks
Sathiya
Sir any view on Godavari Drugs .. Bought some at 43 and after that it was going non stop with 2% limit ..got only few shares to buy ..
ReplyDeleteThen I added some more at 58 when the circuit was open ..
Can I term this scrip as a loss in my account and forget it ?? The capital allotted to this scrip is 3% of my holdings ..
Some view on Andhra Sugars too ??
Have not bought it as a sugar play ..
Let us hope the business momentum will continue in Godavari :)
DeleteNot tracking Andhra Sugar
Hello sir,first day here , someone told me that U r mahatma of stock market, I am curious to know ur most recent recommendations , and more importantly where did you get so much knowledge from. What makes you so intelligent in stock market? Yea, Super likes for the way you help others!
ReplyDeletePlease don't give such credentials to me .
DeleteI am only one among you
Sir,
ReplyDeleteIs it a right time to buy Berger Paints or wait for some correction...
waiting ur valuable reply...
Try an SIP route
DeleteDear vp sir , please advise us for the prospect of himadri chemical only company manufacturing tar and recent govt announcement for road projects
ReplyDeleteThis is not the only listed company manufacturing tar.
DeleteVP Sir, your view on the AUTOMOBILE CORPORATION OF GOA Ltd and their results.
ReplyDeleteResult was below expectation but auto sector may improve in future.
DeleteHi VP sir,
ReplyDeleteDo you think Selan exploration is a contrarian buy on another 10% dip?
Thanks
But in small lots if you have enough patience
DeleteSir your views on Professor Sanjay Bakshi's new find Poddar Developers ..
ReplyDeleteDo you also follow his studies and I guess he hasn't got a single study wrong ..
Not tracking it
DeleteDear Sir,
ReplyDeleteWhat is your view on Dolphin Offshore and Premier explosives.
Is it good to enter these stocks at current levels?
I am a long term investor.
Already suggested at much lower rate
DeleteA BIG Salute to you VIP,
ReplyDeleteI invested my fortune in JSPL, two years ago. After seeing little bit of up movement, the stock has fallen sharply from my purchase price and as on date am incurring a huge loss on it. Please advice whether to stay invested or shift the proceedings to other companies ??
Your advice on this is the only ray of guidance.
Not tracking Jindal Steel power
DeleteSir,
ReplyDeleteCould you please guide me on intellect design arena, network18 media, spicejet and raj rayon, on long term basis ?
Please reply.
Thanks in advance.
As of now ,not tracking any of these cos
DeleteHi, ur view on Rajoo Engineers?
ReplyDeleteNot a compelling buy for me.
DeleteHello sir,
ReplyDeleteHappy pongal to you and your family. May god bless you and fulfill all your wishes.
Need your views on Can Fin Homes rights issue. Should we subscribe to it.
Nothing wrong in subscribing the rights issue.
Deletem sorry sir i didnt read the recent comments before asking abt rajoo engineering.... Sorry!!!
ReplyDeleteSir, First of all thanks a lot for identifying Multibase India at such an early stage. Got the chance to enter into it at 70 odd level's and today sitting on huge profits.... Indebted to You Sir..... Sir again the silly Question for you.... Time to Book some Profit or Hold on to it? Although i am a long term investor just want your guidannce.....
ReplyDeleteCompany is not a bad one but recent sharp appreciation is due to govt's plans to make compulsory air bag option for passenger cards. If this decision get final nod , it may change the fortune of company but if there is any change for this plan , stock may correct.
DeleteDear Sir,
ReplyDeleteYou had suggested to book profit in dolphin offshore at around 210 levels.
But the stock has gone through huge correction so is it good to re-enter the stock at current 150 levels?
I think,oil exploration related stocks may bit soft in medium term
DeleteHi Sir,
ReplyDeletePlease share your views on DLF.
VP sir,
ReplyDeleteyour views on Philips Carbon ,regards.
Sir, pls provide your views on Ahmednagar Forgings? Why its available at dirt cheap valuations?
ReplyDeleteThanks Sir,
Gaurav
Not tracking above mentioned few stocks
DeleteDear VP,
ReplyDeleteI just saw in news channel a recommendation as MM Forging which you had already picked in your post in June 2014 and i was compelled to make this post as i wanted to appreciate your keen eyes which pick these kind of gems earlier than the commercial predictors....and i also wanted to ask you whether you think this stock could be bought at these levels ?
Thanks,
Ramesh
Stock already appreciated almost 200 % from suggested level in less than 9 months . Not suggesting fresh entry at this level for average risk takers.
DeleteSir, please share your views on sudarshan chemicals?
ReplyDeleteNot tracking it
DeleteSir,
ReplyDeleteYour views on Jay Bharat Maruti.. It tanked after below average results.. Do you think it will revive or its time to exit.
Thanks
I believe , Yesterday's reaction was more than enough .
DeleteGenerally positive on Auto Ancillary sector.
Ur view on Assam Company after ONGC deal?
ReplyDeleteCompany is telling such stories for past many years .But nothing beneficial to its share holders happening in business.
DeleteDear VP,
ReplyDeletePlease share your view on freshtrop fruites and Indosolar.
Regards,
Not tracking both
DeleteSir,
ReplyDeleteCAPITAL FIRST has doubled from your recommendation level...Your valuable suggestions on that sir...
Hold it
DeleteDear VP, WHats your impression on Bharat Seats 1.at CMP 2.irrespective of CMP?
ReplyDeleteNot tracking
DeleteSir do you give info regarding shares on facebook as many people on money control board are stating that zf engg has been recommended by you on fb page, is this true
ReplyDeleteSuggested to keep ZF in radar in expectation of better future
DeleteHello VP Sir,
ReplyDeleteWhat is your views on Kaveri seeds considering I haven't invested in this company yet. I have gone through your old posts but havent found anything after recent correction do you see any negatives or still good company to enter.
Thanks
Recommended buy before stock split @ Rs.250 . Current price is Rs.3790 ( Adjusted to 5:1) stock split . Neutral at CMP
Deletesir please share your view on south indian bank
ReplyDeleteHi Sir, pls give your valuable inputs for Shree Hari chem.
ReplyDeleteSir,
ReplyDeleteYour views on M/s Take Solutions.. As as per technical.... share had made rounding bottom pattern .... can be multibagger in long term from here ... V P Sir pls guide urgently.
ra2g .
Thanks
Not tracking above stocks
DeleteSir, desperately needing your sound advice on Marksans Pharma and Reliance Power. Are these stocks looking attractive to you on a technical basis? Please give an opinion. Thanks
ReplyDeleteMarksans pharma adviced to Buy @ Rs.4 and take part profit @ Rs.64
DeleteNot tracking Rel Power
Sir
ReplyDeleteWhat is ur view on next media works considering recent developments in Fm radio field....ur openion deserves highest respect and it is highly appreciated...thank u ..
The much awaited auction is going to happen. But company's financial position is not so great , hence how company can raise funds to participate in this round of auction is a question .
DeleteSir please your view upon amtek auto one Auto Ancillary stock thanks
ReplyDeletehello sir,
ReplyDeleteWhats ur view on ricoh india ???
can u plz suggest whether i can buy at current levels
Not tracking above two
DeleteDear Sir, what's your view on "Arvind Remedies" for long term perspective view? It have potential to become multibagger in next 2-3 years or not? please explain my doubts in details. thanks sir.
ReplyDeleteMany times in the past replied as Not tracking it
DeleteHello, looks like MIC Electronics is having some legal trouble with their Nasik contract? Any change in your views? I know you suggested it for high risk takers, but is it ok for them also to continue to hold for long term?
ReplyDeleteHi sir hats off to you for your guidance
ReplyDelete