One
of the most enduring sayings on Wall Street is "Cut your losses short and let your winners run." Sage
advice, but many investors still appear to do the opposite, selling stocks
after a small gain only to watch them head higher, or holding a stock with a
small loss, only to see it worsen.
No
one will deliberately buy a stock they believe will go down in price and be
worth less than what they paid for it. However, buying stocks that drop in
value is inherent to the nature of investing. The objective, therefore, is not
to avoid losses, but to minimize the losses. Realizing a capital loss before it gets out of hand separates
successful investors from the rest. In this article, we'll help you stand out
from the crowd and show you how to identify when you should make your move.
Reasons
Investors Hold Stocks With Large Unrealized Losses
In spite of the logic for cutting losses short, many small investors are still left holding the proverbial bag. They inevitably end up with a number of stock positions with large unrealized capital losses. At best, it's "dead" money; at worst, it drops further in value and never recovers. Typically, investors believe that the reason they have so many large, unrealized losses is because they bought the stock at the wrong time or it was a matter of bad luck. Rarely do they believe it is because of their own behavioral biases.
Let's
look at a few of these biases:
- Stocks Always
Bounce Back - Don't They?
A glance at a long-term chart of any major stock index will see a line that moves from the lower-left corner to the upper right. The stock market, over any long time period, will always make new highs. Knowing that the stock market will go higher, investors mistakenly assume that their stocks will eventually bounce back. However, a stock index is made up of successful companies. It is an index of winners. Those less successful stocks may have been part of an index at one time, but if they've dropped significantly in value, they will eventually be replaced by more successful companies. The indexes are always being replenished by dropping the losers and replacing them with winners. Looking at the major indexes tends to overstate the resiliency of the average stock, which does not necessarily bounce back. In fact, many companies never regain their past highs and some go bankrupt. - Investors Do Not
Like Admitting They've Made a Mistake
By avoiding selling a stock at a loss, many investors do not have to admit to themselves that they've made a judgment error. Under the false illusion that it is not a loss until the stock is sold, they elect to continue to hold a losing position. In doing so, they avoid the regret of a bad choice. After a stock suffers a loss, many investors plan to hold onto it until it returns to its purchase price. They intend to sell the stock once they recover this paper loss. This means they will break even, and "erase" their mistake. Unfortunately, many of these same stocks will continue to slide. - Neglect
When stock portfolios are doing well, investors often tend to them like well-maintained gardens. They show great interest in managing their investments and harvesting the fruits of their labor. However, when their stocks are holding steady or are dropping in value, especially for long time periods, many investors lose interest. As a result, these well-maintained stock portfolios start showing signs of neglect. Rather than weeding out the losers, many investors do nothing at all. Inertia takes over and, instead of pruning their losses, they often let them grow out of control. - Hope Springs
Eternal
Hope is the belief in the possibility of a positive outcome, even though there is some evidence to the contrary. Hope is also one of the primary theological virtues in various religious traditions. Although hope has its place in theology, it does not belong in the cold hard reality of the stock market. In spite of continuing bad news, investors will steadfastly hold onto their losing stocks, based only on the faint hope that they will at least return to the purchase price. The decision to hold is not based on rational analysis or a well-thought-out strategy; and unfortunately, wishing and hoping that a stock will go up does not make it happen.
Realizing
Capital Losses
Often you just have to bite the bullet and sell your stock at a loss before those losses get bigger. The first thing to understand is that hope is not a strategy. An investor has to have a logical reason to hold a losing position. The second point is, what you paid for a stock is irrelevant to its future direction. The stock will go up or down based on forces in the stock market, the stock's underlying fundamentals and its future prospects.
Let's
look at a few ways of assuring a small loss does not become "dead"
money or turn into a much larger loss.
- Have an
Investment Strategy
Having a written investment strategy with a set of rules both for buying and selling stocks will provide the discipline to sell stocks before the losses blossom. The strategy could be based on fundamental, technical or quantitative factors. - Have Reasons to
Sell a Stock
An investor generally has quite a few reasons why he or she bought a stock, but typically no set boundaries for when to sell it. Don't let this happen to you. Set reasons to sell stocks, and sell them when these things occur. The reason could be as simple as: "Sell if bad news is released about corporate developments or a price target." - Would You Buy
the Stock Now?
On a regular basis, review every stock you hold and ask yourself the simple question: "If I did not own this stock, would I buy it today?" If the answer is a resounding "No", then it should be sold.
Tax-Loss
Harvesting Strategies
A tax-loss harvesting strategy is used to realize capital losses on a regular basis and provides some discipline against holding losing stocks for extended time periods. To put your stock sales in a more positive light, remember that you receive tax credits that can be used to offset taxes on your capital gains.
Conclusion
Taking corrective action before your losses worsen is always a good strategy. In investing, avoiding losses entirely may not be possible; successful investors accept this and try to minimize their losses rather than avoid them. Selling a stock at a loss and receiving a tax credit is one benefit you will receive. Selling these "dogs" has another advantage too - you will not be reminded of your past mistake every time you look at your investment statement.
pls share your view on cent enka, surya roshni
ReplyDeleteNot tracking both
Deletedo you track PPAP Automotives... pl share your views
DeleteDear VP sir thanks a lot for spending your valuable time to guiding us. Willing to know your views on... 1. Era infra.
ReplyDelete2. Amarjothi spinning
3. Cupid.
4. Dr lal path lab
Thank you.
Amarjothi's past few quarters were below expectation.
DeleteLalpath lab is a cash rich debt free company operating in a sector with good potential but valuation is not too cheap at CMP.
Valuepick Thanks for posting this highly informative article. Is it possible that we get an indication as to when to exit a stock? That could help thousands of small investors to make a little money
ReplyDeletesir pls give ur views about
ReplyDeleteanant raj industries
jk paper &
subex systems
As I said earlier Subex is a turn around story , but the FCCB converted shares are dumped into market immediately after conversion which is creating lot of pressure on price movement.
DeleteNot tracking other mentioned stocks.
Dear VP Sir Can we have your views on Kitex Garments at CMP? The stock is not moving up despite excellent performance in March 2016.
ReplyDeleteNot tracking
DeleteSir why u hidden ur identity. A genuine person is always have some name,address.
ReplyDeleteDear
ReplyDeleteI am not compelling anyone to consider me as a genuine person . I believe, rationale for investing in a company and one's belief in that rationale is more important than the name and address of person suggesting a stock.
. I agree with valuepickr point of view it's the content which decides the genuitity. I am sure all of us who are following valuepickr advise just because of its content not because of any personality.I am quite sure that voices like these are exceptional so that itself is the answer. Thanks
ReplyDeleteSir please guide on prospects of Sterlite technologies.
ReplyDeleteNot tracking Sterlite Technology
DeleteWe are realy missing our earlier 'VP' . . !!!
ReplyDeleteIf there is a change in rules , we need to change accordingly.
DeleteHi Sir,
ReplyDeleteWhat are your views on Gati after it posted decent results ?
Not tracking it
DeleteVP sir, 1) Snowman Logistics is hovering near its IPO price after post-listing sharp moves. Please give your view for its long term prospects
ReplyDelete2) Your opinion about Intellect Design Area after latest Q4 results please..
Snowman is in a potential sector but its price is not cheap.
DeleteNot tracking Intellect Design
Dear VP sir
ReplyDeleteRequesting your views on Filatex India? With a fantastic Q4 and capacity expansion likely to add to top line in Q1 wondering whether this is a investment grade stock. Thank you
I have no idea about its promoters hence no comments.
DeleteSir whats your opinion on
ReplyDelete1. Take solution
2. inox wind
3 astra microwave
4. lycos internet
5.texmaco rail
6. tree house - zee learn merge 1:5
Tracking only Astra Microwave which already suggested @ Rs.35.
Deletehi VP sir,
ReplyDeleteCould you please share your latest views on Nath bio-genes, Dion Global & Magna electrocast ?
Thanks,
-Srinivas
If there is no pricing power for a sector/company , it is difficult to grow beyond certain level . Few states already implemented price cap for seeds, if more and more states follow the same it may negatively impact the margin of all companies operating in this sector.
DeleteDion Global is not performing up to expectation.
Valuation of Magna is cheap , but sector revival is the key point to watch.
Sir, Your views on Sequent scientific results ?
ReplyDeletewhats view on mindteck?
ReplyDeleteNo change in previous opinion on above two cos.
DeleteSir irritating persons are always there. They see the world as they are. We can't blame them. It's just the world with such people. You have always forgiven them.
ReplyDeleteRegards
Dear VP Sir Can we have your view on capital trust and salzer electronics at CMP?
ReplyDeleteCapital trust already turned as a 10 bagger , prefer to book profit.
Deletewhat ur view on assam company ltd
ReplyDeleteNot tracking
DeleteVP sir,
ReplyDelete1. What are the key problems for Orchid Pharma.... Do you think the worst is behind and expect better results
2. SKM Egg : should it be sell for now or accumate for long terms 3+ years horizon
PE 7/8 times
Market Cap 230 CR Vs Revenue of 270/280 Cr
Debt-to-Equity below 1
Though there are head winds in terms pressure on pricing and new order in addition to increase in cost, these seem temporary which should get resolved in 2/3 qtrs.
So I feel it is a good loong term bet. Please share your views with these point in mind and if there is something very averse that we should worry about.
Key problem of Orchid Pharma is its debt.
DeleteThere is no doubt about the quality and hard work of the promoters of SKM. But some factors are even beyond the control of any promoter and it may happen unexpectedly . Promoter himself bought the shares of SKM around Rs.140 last year from open market which indicating even they do not expect a bad business environment( Increase in raw material price in India and fall in the product price in overseas market)so soon.It was really unexpected and it may be corrected over a period of time . Company has changed a lot in last two years( turned to debt free status, pledge release ..etc)and the good days may come again when this cycle change .The question is whether we will get a better chance for entry due to current negative business environment or not. I thought that we will get such a chance and hence suggested to pare exposure when it was @ Rs.120 after touching Rs.220. You may ask why I not suggested when it was @ Rs.220 and I have only one answer for that - the change in situation was too fast both in case of raw material price and product price and Japanese business situation.
Thank you VP for your detailed rationale on SKM exit-re-entry at lower level (when climate is conclusive) strategy. I feel SKM problems are short term 2/3 qtrs and 70 should be a good level to start accumulating.
DeleteI am a big fan of your analysis and thinking and miss the sharing of posts\review of new companies. Is there anything that you have analyzed in the past, available @ cheaper rate and fundamentals are still intact\condusive like Magna El, Lakshmi foods, Aimco , Pioneer, etc.
Thank you once again for your honest and sincere guidance.
Sir, Kindly have your views on Sakthi sugars, with ARCIL taking over half of debt with write-offs and networth of the company increasing ?
ReplyDeleteNot tracking it
DeleteSir, u r views on rushil decor Ltd
ReplyDeleteNot tracking
DeleteSir, alps industries has been declared a sick company. What impacts do you foresee with these developments?
ReplyDeleteIt is not a new development , declared as sick in 2010 itself.
DeleteDear ValuePick,
ReplyDeletePlease share your views on Tyche Industries.
Thank you.
Not tracking Tyche
DeleteMIC electronics presentation
ReplyDeletehttp://energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2016/02/f29/atluri_global_raleigh2016.pdf
Sir whats your view on Cupid, Dabur and Hexaware?
ReplyDeleteNot tracking Hexaware.
DeleteDabur for passive investors.
Cupid is improving
i just don't understand how people cannot see the genuineness just by reading this blog. Every post by you says out loud how genuine, sincere and a person of principles you are, and that is the reason a lot of us follow you. Thanks always for the selfless service you do.
ReplyDeletesir,please share your views on R System International? r u tracking it?
ReplyDeleteNot tracking it
DeleteGreetings Sir ,
ReplyDeleteCould you please share views on ur old recommendation shemaroo entertainment . iam holding from @184
Shemaroo is @ more than 50 % above from suggested level. Neutral at CMP.
DeleteDear VP sir
ReplyDeleteYour views on IFGL for long term? Can we enter at current price?
Can you please advise on sakthi finance? It has a good dividend yield and decent growth.
ReplyDeleteSorry. not tracking it.
DeleteVP Sir,
ReplyDeleteGreat answer to SKM question raised by follow reader. Yes the situation turned very fast and everyone was caught by surprise. The promoter who is at the helm of affairs on day to day work couldn't see it coming and hence small investors like us are no match to it.
But the biggest bright spot among them is the promoters are honest and hard working and looking ways to increasse the biz. I am holding from 100 levels and NOT sold a single share till now as I am sure that tide will change and may get caught with surprise. I have seen many times that you sell share and things change quickly.
We are really thankful for your guidance and hope to see you guiding us in some form or other.
Pls do consider small investors like us and share your ideas.
God Bless.
Sir, by any chance you track Majesco ? if yes, pls share views.
ReplyDeleteNot tracking Majesco
DeleteHi Sir,
ReplyDeletePlease suggest us some good stocks.. I have been watching your page since 1 year and no new companies were suggested.. Ur suggestions are very helpful
Not recommending stocks wef: June 1,2015 due to SEBI's new rule
DeleteDear Sir,
ReplyDeleteI got DLF way back in 2008 @ 440 level.. Later it was never traded at that level.. Do you see any future in this stock.. should I sell and invest in any other stock..Thanks in advance.
Sir, ur views on Harrisons Malayalam Limited
ReplyDeleteNot tracking above stocks.
DeleteSir, I am flowing your blog since 2015 when I come to know about you. My bad luck is you are stopped suggesting stock ideas when I come to know about you. I referred your previous stock ideas. All your stock ideas are given excellent returns to investors with good analysis. I know you are not giving stock ideas for investment due to SEBI regulations.
ReplyDeleteI am a long term investor. Can you share with us how you develop these skills. How do you do stock analysis? Can you suggest anything for our self-analysis.
The important points to be checked is sharing on Saturdays
DeleteDear VP,
ReplyDeleteI see your comment on Subex Systems as Company could be turn around story. Recent Quarter results looking better. Present Subex promotors are having just 0.4 % ( 974044 shares) of shares in the Co. How risky it is to invest when promotors are having such low holding of shares in Co. Any views on this of great help.
Thank You.
It is run by a professional board.
DeleteSir, your view on Spisys.
ReplyDeleteDo you track andhra sugar?
ReplyDeleteDear VP Sir,
ReplyDeleteYour current views on cybertech based on results
Thanks in Advance
Dear VP,
ReplyDeleteKindly share your views on Bharat Gears Ltd.
Regards,
Hiral K
Not tracking above mentioned stocks.
DeleteSir,
ReplyDeleteAny views on Sequent Scientific at current levels? Seems attractive at CMP :-)
Adjusted to stock split ,it is still 5 times higher from suggested rate.
DeleteHi Sir,
ReplyDeletePlease share your views on Eros media? Do you feel its recent fall is reasonable?
Aneesh
Not tracking it after the recent issues.
DeleteDear Sir,
ReplyDeleteValiant Communication result is out. Key Hightlights: Revenue up 21% on yoy basis, 775% on qoq basis. Profit up from loss of Rs 13 Lacs to profilt of 21 lacs.
I could not understand the statement "Due to favorable decissions, the contingent liability has been reduced to 69 lac from 639 lac". Is it related to the tax they owed?
Would like to have your view on this stock sir.
Regards,
Jagadish
Reason for decrease in contingent liability explained in the notes/press release part attached with result , please refer.
Deletesir would you like to have look at Rpower after the uday scheme implementation?
ReplyDeleteNot tracking R Power
DeleteDear valuepickr sir you have given enough explanations with regard to skm. Everyone knows the risks involved in investing in shares. Atleast you have warned against averaging and recommend to exit that is also a superb advice as business environment can change anytime . please carry forward your selfless service in this forum we all are indebted to you for sharing of knowledge. Thanks
ReplyDeleteHi Value Pick Sir, Today Valiant Communications announced very good results. Your valuable views on the results as I am holding good quantity of it.
ReplyDeleteYes, result is improving and more than that order booked jumped from Rs.39 lac to Rs.22 Cr which is more important . Contingent liability also decreased sharply.
DeleteDear VP Sir, Shaily Engineering posted decent March quarter number but a bit lag at top line which can be due to global headwinds.The worrying part was at 'Other Income' part which is still not clear. Would you please share your thought!
ReplyDeleteOther income is almost 50 lacs higher than the same of last year same quarter.
DeleteTrue. But overall how do you see the result. YOY seems on the line.
DeleteDear VP
ReplyDeleteAny comments on Mindteck results?
Nothing to comment specifically
DeleteSir, the subsidiaries have caused a dent to Cox and Kings financials, do you think it can be a recurring pattern.
ReplyDeleteCompany is going through a business restructuring and the huge loss is due to Goodwill amortisation of a subsidiary which sold recently and it is one time in nature.
DeleteAny views on cosmo films
ReplyDeleteA decent company in this sector but business is cyclical.
DeleteDear VP Sir
ReplyDeleteKindly let us know your view on Mindteck and Valiant communication results.
Best regards
Sreejith G
sir please share your views on DQ entertainment.
ReplyDeleteNot tracking DQ
DeleteDear Sir,
ReplyDeleteYOur view on your one of earlier recommendation Lokesh Machines.
Further please share your views on repro India
As you are aware Engineering industry is currently going through a not so good business environment , It is expected to perform once there is revival in core sector.
DeleteDear VP Sir, Posted the same earlier too, but un-answered. Trying again.
ReplyDeleteI think Pioneer investors would like to know your valuable opinion if you are POSITIVE on the results and whether we can HOLD for Long term. Kindly advice. Have a great day.
- On behalf of all PEM investors. Darshan S.
Sir,
ReplyDeletePlease state your view on Zicom. Is there any negative news about company which common investors don't know?
Dear VP sir
ReplyDeleteI bought Bhusan steel @68 200. so what is your opinion. Shall i exit or wait??
Nice points...👍
ReplyDelete