Showing posts with label micro irrigation sector. Show all posts
Showing posts with label micro irrigation sector. Show all posts

Saturday, July 17, 2010

STURDY INDUSTRIES - BETTER TO AVOID





This company is projected as a mutibagger by
many sources and many readers are asking my
opinion on this . Considering various factors ,
even if the industry in which company is operating
is promising  ,Sturdy is not giving any confidence to
me because of the following reasons.




1)      Even if company showing improvement in sales ,
no growth in profits in proportion of sales growth.
Out of the 145 Cr sales posted in last qtr 100 Cr are
from trading activities  and only balance 45 are
from core activities  and even this dramatic
improvement in  trading figures are unbelievable.

2)      When we invest in a small company and ready
to hold it for a long time on expectation of mutibagger
return ,we should give priority to the integrity of the
promoters of such a company, which lacks in the case of
Sturdy Industries.We can take few indications for this.
First one is ,Company’s proposal to merge two promoter
owned companies M/S Nuline India Private Ltd and
M/S Swati Storwel Private Ltd was rejected  by the
Himachal High court with a fine of Rs.50000 and court
also commented that  at every stage of the proceedings
the petitioners have tried to withhold information from the
court or to mislead the court.You can access the  said
court order HERE. I think this not the quality of a good
promoter. Secondly, In a filing to BSE dated 15.07.2010
company informed BSE that FII's has withdrawn their
consent to invest in the Company . I  think this also is
not a good sign at all and it may happen either the said
FII studied the company well after committing an
investment and decided to avoid it because of the
quality of company ,or this FII commitment never
happened earlier and company published such a news
only to lure retail investors to rig the price ..


Thirdly,Company  recently came out with an
unwarranted stocks splits when its price was
around just Rs.25. In case of stocks splits of
companies quoting  at lower level ,90 out of
100 cases are only to create artificial volume to
attract retail investors and make an easy way to
exit the promoter and related parties .Before such
an exit , promoters itself may take additional shares
in order to make additional profit even if there is no
proposal for any new investment by the company.


3)      Big investors are always in a better position to
know the happenings in any company than small retail
investor. So their action is also a point to note.
In June 2009 ,large investors holding in this company
were almost 30 % and now it is just 8 % . Some of them
are even completely exited. (You can access the sample
selling details HERE).This also is not a good sign for any
company.I strongly believes that the recent BUY tips 
on this counter from various sources were only to
attract retail investors  in order to create liquidity for an
easy exit of some big players.
 

In nut shell , This company is not an attractive
one for me by any means to give  multibagger
returns. In a bull market  any company may move
ahead due to many reasons other than
fundamentals , but while buying such stocks ,don’t
forget bull market will not continue forever .
So take a decision by yourself

Saturday, July 3, 2010

AGRICULTURE / FARMING - THE NEXT BIG ' THEME ' IN INDIA ?




Different ‘themes’ catching up in any stock market time to time,
and company’s from such sectors giving many fold returns in
short period. In India ,earlier it was IT, then Real Estate
(based on land bank stories), again Power, Education,
Bio technology …etc. A common feature in all these times are
,lot of companies changing their name to add such hot ‘tags ‘ along
with their name to lure retail investors in order to rig the  price
easily  and then offload their own shares to public at higher rate
and make money. Most of these chameleon companies may not
have any relation with such new ‘themes’ other than its names .
So even if that theme really works ,price of  such name changed
companies will not  sustain at higher level when people realize
the facts. What I mean is  , don’t buy a stock  only because
of its name but do  some basic  home work to ensure that the
particular company have at least some operations in such high
potential ‘theme’ sectors.                
          Considering the thrust of government ,changing lifestyle
and disposable income level - ‘Agriculture’,  to more specific
‘Farming’ is considered as the next big theme in India.
All allied businesses of farming are expected to get re-rated
in future which include Micro Irrigation , Seeds,
Agrochemicals, Bio fertilizer, Pesticides, Micro nutrients etc.
(Since the prices of most of the fertilizers other than Bio
fertilizers are  under govt control in India  , this sector may
not out perform) .In the first leg , till farming developed in   a
corporate level and production of such agri products improve
substantially  ,companies processing these agri products
without proper backward integration may face stiff margin
pressure. In order to avoid such a contraction  in
margins , food processing companies should go for
farming and produce - what they need.

              Unfortunately most of our listed players with ‘AGRO’
tag are merely processors of agri products after procuring the
same from farmers. So when we look into investment
opportunities in agri related company’s  ,we should clearly
distinguish  whether the company is in farming and  related
sector or only in agri processing sector. If it is in agri
processing sector only , it may enjoy a valuation which is
available for food processing sector now and not get a
premium as in the case of  farming may get in future. Needless to
say ,JAIN IRRIGATION is the undisputed beneficiary 
( by all means ) of improved activity in farming related sectors
 and it is difficult to imagine another company in near future in
its place due to its top class management , aggressive and
 inorganic growth plans , and integrated status. We have
already discussed some other companies like Aries agro ,
Rungta Irrigation ..etc in past  and expected to bring few
more companies to your attention in coming weeks.
So before catching anything with ‘AGRO’ tag –Think twice                        

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