DR . AGARWAL'S EYE HOSPITAL LTD - BUY @CMP -Rs.71/-

Corporate hospital chains are catching the attention
of Investors in recent times and this industry is
considered as a sunrise sector. Along with this ,
specialized hospital are expected to came to limelight
in near future. Dr.Agarwal’s Eye hospital is the largest
listed specialised eye hospital chain operating in India.
This company is promoted by Dr.J Agarwal in 1994 at
Chennai.At preset it has 30 Centres in Tamilnadu, 1 in
Andhra ,2 in Rajasthan and 1 centre in Mauritius .Company
offering all latest treatments in eye care and ophthalmology .
Company is going through an aggressive expansion and
planning pan India operations in near future. In the initial
years ,this type of an industry requires large capital
expenditure to start hospitals .Buy when reached a critical
mass the margins will be higher. So long term investors can
BUY this at CMP of Rs.71/-. For the last FY ,company
posted a turnover of 87 Cr and a net profit of 52 lacs. In the
latest June qtr ,company posted a turnover of Rs.26 Cr and
a NP of 1.2 Cr.

BHAGIRATHA CHEM - EXIT

Company decided to discontinue one of its major product which will affect its profitability in near future .So better to exit from this co.

CENLUB INDUSTRIES - RESULT UPDATE

 Below is the comparative figures with last year same qtr:

                             JUNE QTR 2010        JUNE QTR 2009

TURNOVER           5.83 Cr                    3.26 Cr

NET PROFIT         60 Lakhs                  26 Lakhs


EPS                        .96                          .42

Company is small in size ,but growing steadily over many qtrs .

YUKEN INDIA - RESULT UPDATE

Yuken India is one of our favorite stock which we recommended twice @ Rs.140/- and @ Rs.160/- in the past .Currently it is quoting around Rs.235/-.Company declared its first qtr result on Saturday. Below is the comparative figures with last year same qtr:

                             JUNE QTR 2010        JUNE QTR 2009

TURNOVER           28.73 Cr                    17.22 Cr

NET PROFIT         1.34 Cr                       LOSS OF 28 Lakhs


EPS                        Rs.4.47 /-                  - .87

Company's sales and profitability showing seasonal variations and historically June qtr is one of the weak qtr for the company .Even in such a qtr company performed well and raw material prices are stabilized now.Moreover company is planning a capex of Rs.15 Cr in near future to increase capacity and modernisation  .The entire funding will be through internal accruals and loans.Considering all these facts ,better days are expected ahead and one can HOLD it.

A WORD OF CAUTION

Most of the stock market participants are in a happy mood
when indices ruling at a two year high. Since this rally
is broad based even retail investors are making handsome
profit. I am sure ,in a market like this any word of
caution will be ignored and there is lot of justification
for doing that. I am not discouraging anyone from
investing even at this point but just a caution about the
stock selection. We are here to make money, even that with
no waiting.When we take the list of stocks hitting new highs
everyday ,most of the names other than from the ‘A'group
are not familiar for majority of the investors. Why it
happens so?. There is two reasons for spurt in share prices
now,one is genuine buying by investors hoping better
performance of the company ahead and secondly because
of the activities of promoters and operators to en-cashing
the opportunity available in the market because of the
prevailing sentiment.Promoters of the first type of companies
may not interested in the daily movement of their share
prices and they are concentrating only in the business and
believing that in the long run the share price will eventually
reflect the financial strength of their companies .Share prices
of such companies may move slowly even in a bull market
because there is only genuine investors in such counters.
On the other side,promoters of some lesser known companies
are interested only in the share price movement and not in
their business.Such promoters are trying to push up the
prices of the shares in a hurry and distribute it to the retailers
and make gain out of it. Movement of such stocks are very
speedy and may be even trade only in upper circuits for
many days.In such a situation ,retailers feels desperate
by keeping slow moving good stocks and tempting to offload
such stocks and run behind fast moving stocks without
checking their basics.When the nature of market changes or
promoter/operator offloading is over ,fast moving stocks
crash down even more faster and never come back since
there is no business behind it.If one’s entry and exit is at
correct point such stocks may give returns but in 90% cases
the retailers will be in wrong foot due to many reasons
including greed and loss substantial amount and even exit
from such stocks are possible only in the following bull
market which may occur after many years. On the other
hand slow moving stocks of companies concentrating in
business always give decent return in long term because
the business also growing. So,while investing in bull market,
always take risk only at affordable level and don’t
forget- preserving our capital is important than making
money from market.

CHAMANLAL SETIA EXPORTS

Chamanlal Setia Exports is the processor and exporter of Rice under

the brand name 'MAHARANI' Company has two rice processing units

located one each at Amritsar and Karnal ,with a total capacity of 100000 MT

pet annum.Company exporting three variety of products viz - Parboiled Basmati

Rice,Polished Basmati Rice and Basmati Health Rice. Last year most of the

riceexporting companies faced tough times mainly because of low productivity

due to lack of sufficient monsoon and also because of unfavorable exchange

value of Indian currency.Both these aspects are expected to be positive in

this year.In 2010 March,Company posted a turnover of Rs.183 Crore and a

net profit of Rs.6 Crore .On an equity base of 9.4 Cr ,company posted an

EPS of Rs.7.25/-  and it is currently trading at Rs.44 with a P/E of 6.  

Chamanlal  Setia Exports is expected to give decent  return going forward.

BHAGWATI AUTOCAST LTD - BETTER DAYS AHEAD

Bhagwati autocast is a cast iron product manufacturer
located in Ahmedabad . Company having an annual
capacity of 18000 Metric ton and it is supplying
to industries like Automotive, Engineering, Hydraulic
and compressor making.Its customers includes Escorts,
Mahindra Tractors ,Punjab Tractors,Swaraj Engines and
Swaraj Mazda from auto related sectors and Vickers systems
and Bosch Rexroth from Hydraulic sector and HMT, Kirloskar
oil engines,Siemens from engineering sector …etc.
In FY 2010 company posted a turnover of Rs.52 Crore
and a net profit of 2.3 Cr.On its small equity of just
2.9 Crore company posted an EPS of Rs.8/- .All of the
sectors consuming its products are showing good
growth now, which is expected to help the company to
post even better result in current financial year.
Company is currently trading at Rs.34/- with a P/E multiple
of just 4 to last year EPS which is at the lower end .

FCS SOFTWARE SOLUTIONS LTD - ADVERTISEMENT FROM ONE SIDE SELLING THROUGH OTHER SIDE

We are seeing lot of advertisements of FCS software  in
business channels like CNBC in these days claiming its
glory and  expansion plans.This is increasing the confidence
of retailers and they are buying in bulk with very big dreams.
But what is really happening through the other side is really
alarming .Promoters are offloading their holding in open market
on a daily basis . But they are very smart  and it seems that the
major sellers are absent in last half an hour to get a higher closing
rate(closing rate is calculated on the basis of Weighted average of
last half an hour only) and continue their selling on the next day.
Have a look at the latest sale figure of its Main promoter

cum MD cum Chairman Mr Dalip Kumar  in open market.

Date of Sale                      Qty Sold

3 June 2010                       5000000     (Fifty Lac)

6 July 2010                        5000000      (Fifty Lac)

14 July 2010                      10000000   (One Crore)

15 July 2010                      15000000    (1.5 Crore)

Now everybody knows the reason of daily advertisement

through business channels . If everything claimed by company
are true ,what is the meaning of these huge sell figures of the
promoter ???? .So take utmost care while buying shares
of companies giving unnecessary

advertisements and  announcements through channels.

If more companies following this trend ,it is better to

considering  a buy of  the shares of companies running

business channels ,since they are the only beneficiaries

other than promoters of these type fraud companies.

TRANSPEK INDUSTRY LTD - BUY

Transpek Industry Ltd is a 45 year old company established
in Baroda by Shroff Group.It is one of the largest
producers and exporters of organic and inorganic chemicals
from India. Its products are used in industries like
Petrochemicals, Pharmaceuticals,Agrochemicals ,Dyes
and polymer.Company manufacturing more than 50
products used in these industries.Out of the total sales,
close to 60% income derived from exports and balance
from domestic sales. Transpek has a good research division
too for inventing new products.In last financial year
performance of the company was severely affected by
foreign exchange loss on derivative
contracts which the company entered to hedge the risk.
Now after the stabilizing of exchange rate and improvement
in demand of company’s various products ,it is expected to
perform better in this year. One can BUY for decent return
in medium term at CMP of Rs.100/-

STURDY INDUSTRIES - BETTER TO AVOID

This company is projected as a mutibagger by

many sources and many readers are asking my

opinion on this . Considering various factors ,

even if the industry in which company is operating

is promising  ,Sturdy is not giving any confidence to

me because of the following reasons.

1)      Even if company showing improvement in sales ,

no growth in profits in proportion of sales growth.

Out of the 145 Cr sales posted in last qtr 100 Cr are

from trading activities  and only balance 45 are

from core activities  and even this dramatic

improvement in  trading figures are unbelievable.

2)      When we invest in a small company and ready

to hold it for a long time on expectation of mutibagger

return ,we should give priority to the integrity of the

promoters of such a company, which lacks in the case of

Sturdy Industries.We can take few indications for this.

First one is ,Company’s proposal to merge two promoter

owned companies M/S Nuline India Private Ltd and

M/S Swati Storwel Private Ltd was rejected  by the

Himachal High court with a fine of Rs.50000 and court

also commented that  at every stage of the proceedings

the petitioners have tried to withhold information from the

court or to mislead the court.You can access the  said

court order HERE. I think this not the quality of a good

promoter. Secondly, In a filing to BSE dated 15.07.2010

company informed BSE that FII's has withdrawn their

consent to invest in the Company . I  think this also is

not a good sign at all and it may happen either the said

FII studied the company well after committing an

investment and decided to avoid it because of the

quality of company ,or this FII commitment never

happened earlier and company published such a news

only to lure retail investors to rig the price ..

Thirdly,Company  recently came out with an

unwarranted stocks splits when its price was

around just Rs.25. In case of stocks splits of

companies quoting  at lower level ,90 out of

100 cases are only to create artificial volume to

attract retail investors and make an easy way to

exit the promoter and related parties .Before such

an exit , promoters itself may take additional shares

in order to make additional profit even if there is no

proposal for any new investment by the company.

3)      Big investors are always in a better position to

know the happenings in any company than small retail

investor. So their action is also a point to note.

In June 2009 ,large investors holding in this company

were almost 30 % and now it is just 8 % . Some of them

are even completely exited. (You can access the sample

selling details HERE).This also is not a good sign for any

company.I strongly believes that the recent BUY tips 

on this counter from various sources were only to

attract retail investors  in order to create liquidity for an

easy exit of some big players.

 

In nut shell , This company is not an attractive

one for me by any means to give  multibagger

returns. In a bull market  any company may move

ahead due to many reasons other than

fundamentals , but while buying such stocks ,don’t

forget bull market will not continue forever .

So take a decision by yourself

TECHTRAN POLYLENSES LTD- Change in Management may Change its Fortune

Techtran Poly lenses is the largest Plastic ophthalmic lense
manufacturer from India.Its manufacturing facility is located
at Hyderabad and having a capacity of 5 million lenses per annum.
Company making Progressive,Bio-focal and single vision lenses .
Even if company’s products are well known for its quality ,it failed to
set up good marketing channel and scale up the promising business
beyond certain level. This is mainly because of the scarcity of funds
and lack of business sense of promoters. Citing the opportunity
available with the company ,  Dr.Jayaram Chigurupathi ,promoter of
Zenotech Lab - through Credence Infrastructure Ltd -took over
this company last month. As mentioned earlier promoters efficiency
and lack of funds were the main problems of the company in the
past and which is expected to compensated going forward
by the change in management control. Last year company posted
a turnover of Rs.29 Crore and a net profit of Rs.2 Crore.
Earlier company was exporting its products to few re-sellers which dent
its margins . Re-working this strategy by setting up its own retail
chain and introducing value added products , which company is planning
now may change its fortune. Keep an eye on this one ,CMP is Rs.23/-

COSMO FERRITES Ltd - REPEAT

I have recommended this company on 26th April 2010 at Rs.13/-.Currently it is quoting at Rs.15.80/- .Based on the expected better performance going forward,this is the second time.Old write up is reproduced below.

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Cosmo Ferrite Ltd is a Cosmo Films group company 

and one of the largest manufacturer of

Manganese Zinc Soft-ferrite from India.Major applications of

Ferrites are in Inverter transformers,

driver transformers,pulse transformers,

line filters and noise suppressors.It cater the

industries like lighting,telecommunications,

computers,entertainment electronics,process

control and consumer electronic devices 

.Major part of company’s products are exported ,

mainly to USA. Company having manufacturing

facility to make 2350ton ferrites powder and

2000 ton ferrites component annually .

This industry is cyclical in nature and now

it is coming out of a bad cycle .For the last six

months company is showing turnaround performance .

Now it is quoting around Rs.13/-.Keep an eye on this. 

FCS SOFTWARE -SMART PROMOTERS

More than once I have recommended investors to stay away from stocks like FCS Software.When we go through the share holding pattern of this company over the past few qtrs ,we will get a clear picture about the happenings in the company.It is as follows:

Period     Sh. held by promoters     % of pro.holding     Total sh. 
                                                                                    holders
June 09       9798428                            67.68                  9258

Sep 09       8298428                             57.32                  9344

Mar10     165,968,560 (Post split)         31.34                  55602


This trend clearly indicating that promoters are offloading shares and it is distributed among general public

Need more explanation ....????      

JK AGRIGENETICS - TREASURE HUNT

JK AGRIGENETICS  is a member of JK group companies

established in Hyderabad in 1989. Earlier it was

part of JK Tyre and Industries and later de-merged

into a separate company.This company is engaged in

research and development, production, processing

and marketing of hybrid seeds of Sorghum, Pearl

Millet, Maize, Cotton, Rice, Sunflower, Tomato,

Okra and Hot Pepper. Products are selling under the

brand name 'JK SEEDS'.Company is collaborating

with various national and international

agricultural universities for bringing latest

technology in seed development.In 1999

company set up a Bio tech lab of international

standards at Hyderabad with 15 scientists .

Its Hyderabad plant having a capacity to process

100 ton seeds per day. Company is selling seeds of Cotton,Bajra,Maize,Jowar,Paddy ,Sunflower,

Castor,Mustard,Wheat,Redgram and Soyabean.It also

producing seeds of vegetables like Tomato,Bhendi,

Chilli,Bottle Gourd,Water Melon,Radish,Cabbage,

Sweet Corn,Cucumber and Coriander.Company has

recently started production from Phase 2 of its

new seed processing plant in March 2010.

Due to adverse climatic conditions company's sales

badly affected in last year and company posted

huge loss.It is expected to perform better ahead.

THE REAL ATTRACTION

--------------------

In 2006 ,company planned to de-merge  into two

- Seed division and Investment division . When we dig deep

into the investment division it is amazing to see the

value in it.This division holding shares of JK Lakshmi

Cement(Total current Market value Rs.45 - Crore),JK Paper

(Rs.38 Crore) ,JK Tyre( Rs.99 Cr.) ,Umang Dairies (Rs.3 Cr),

Bengal Assam Company ( Rs.13 Cr).Other than this it also

holding shares in unlisted companies like Fenner India,

Udaipur Cement,Florance Alumina ..Etc. All together its

investment portfolio worth over Rs.200 Cr in current

market price. Remember, its total shares issued are

only 3,506,510 and when we divide its investment

portfolio for these share ,what should be the value

of each share of JK Agri.(Approx.Rs.570/- each) Anyway

company's plan was to de-merge it in a manner so as

a share holder will get 60 shares of seed company and

40 shares of Investment company. Company's proposal was

earlier rejected by Court due to complaints by some

share holders, and company now filed an appeal to the

division bench .This petition is expected to come for

hearing in this month itself . It is expected that Company

is planning to de-list the investment company after

de-merger . I believes If such a reverse book building

happens ,one can recover entire investment (at current

rate) by just surrendering the shares of investment

company alone and keep the shares of seed company

cost free. In nut shell at CMP of Rs 170/- you are

getting a company from JK group operating in a high

potential Agri sector plus part of 200 Crore investment

at a market capitalization of just 59 Crore.

HOW WE PERFORMED IN FIVE MONTHS

-->I have started writing this blog actively about five months back( even if it created in 2008) to help retailers in their decision making
regarding investment in small and midcap stocks in India.In any bull
market lot of stocks moving sharply, mainly because of reasons other
than its fundamentals like operators activity ,rumors ..etc.So retail
investors should do their own due diligence before acting on any
stock tips and assure that at least there is a working company
behind the name.In many cases ,retailers  actually searching the
fundamentals and realizing facts only in the following bear market
and by that time even their capital may wiped off. As Warren
Buffet once said "It's only when the tide goes out that you learn
who's been swimming naked". In this short span of five
months ,I got active participation from lot of readers through
comments and e-mails and really welcome the same .
Two way communication is always help to clear doubts
and notice unnoticed points , both me and you.
-->I feel it is the right time to look into the performance of our all past  recommendations, and which is as below :

-->All the recommended scrips are included in the list and

companies now quoting below recommended price after

hitting highs are indicated in red colour

-->% of return is NOT annualized


-->



Scrip Name                                REc Price  Hi.since reco High in %

UT LTD	17	41	141%
TASTY BITE	165	352	130%
WINDSOR MACHINES	35	77	120%
INTERLINK PETROLEUM	33	70	112%
SPICE MOBILES	40	82	105%
YUKEN INDIA	140	280	100%
CHOLAMANDALAM	82	151	84%
ITL INDUSTRIES	54	99	83%
RAM RATNA WIRE	48	85	77%
SANGAL PAPER	17	30	76%
YUKEN INDIA	160	280	75%
MAKERS LAB	35	61	74%
SIMRAN FARMS	30	52	73%
ROTO PUMP	80	137	71%
SHIRPUR GOLD	161	275	70%
JINDAL HOTEL	47	80	70%
SIYARAM SILK MILLS	168	286	70%
ATUL AUTO	71	121	70%
PIONEER INVESTCORP	52	88	69%
CALIFORNIA SOFTWARE	41	69	68%
ARMAN FINANCIAL	21	35	66%
ORIENTAL CARBON	93	151	62%
KOPRAN LTD	29	46	58%
KLRF	23	36	56%
CHOKSI IMAGING	47	73	55%
MEDICAMEN BIO	25	38	52%
BHARAT RASAYAN	80	121	51%
SUMEDHA FISCAL	24	36	50%
NILE LTD	115	169	46%
CHOLAMANDALAM	103	151	46%
APAR INDUSTRIES	150	284	43%
ITL INDUSTRIES	69	99	43%
VIJAY SHANTHI BUILDERS	35	50	42%
STERLING STRIPS	7	10	42%
PIRAMAL GLASS	78	110	41%
ASTEC LIFE SCIENCE	57	80	40%
KENNA METAL	350	485	38%
COSMO FERRITES	13	18	38%
POLY MEDICURE	130	180	38%
AMCO INDIA	35	48	37%
ARIES AGRO	108	147	36%
APCOTEX INDUSTRIES	112	153	36%
INTERNATIONAL TRAVEL HOUSE	165	224	35%
KIRLOSKAR PNUEMATIC	402	540	34%
GUJ RECLAIM	730	985	34%
WIRES AND FABRIKS	110	148	34%
ABM KNOWLEDGE	45	60	33%
MAZDA LTD	98	129	31%
IGARSHI MOTORS	60	79	31%
BHAGIRATHA CHEM	70	91	30%
INFOTRCK SYSCOM	25	32	28%
MUKAND ENGINEERING	48	60	25%
STERLING TOOLS	97	122	25%
TALWALKER	162	203	25%
AHLCON PARENTERALS	64	80	25%
TIMKEN INDIA	125	156	24%
LANCO INDUSTRIES	65	80	23%
SICAL LOGISTICS	85	104	22%
ARIES AGRO	122	147	20%
JYOTI LTD	82	99	20%
ACRYSIL	128	153	19%
JAGATJIT IND	65	77	18%
LAKSHMI ELECTRIC CONTROL	238	280	17%
SRI ADHIKARI BROTHERS	32	37	15%
JSW ENERGY	115	133	15%
INDSIL HYDRO	76	88	15%
FORTIS HEALTHCARE	138	160	15%
GEI INDUSTRIAL SYSTEM	120	138	15%
MODI NATURALS	14	16	14%
ADANI POWER	114	129	13%
RUNGTA IRRIGATION	58	66	13%
PIRAMAL GLASS	97	110	13%
RISHI LAZER	58	65	12%
ALPHAGEO	215	242	12%
ORCHID CHEMICALS	161	180	11%
PUNJAB CHEMICALS	135	150	11%
CENLUBE INDUSTRIES	20	22	10%
HARITHA SEATING	99	109	10%
RELIGARE TECHNOVA	85	93	9%
VESUVIUS INDIA	251	274	9%
KULKARNI POWER	83	91	9%
GOA CARBON	111	120	8%
MULTIBASE INDIA	35	38	8%
LOKESH MACHINE	49	53	8%
GENUS POWER	210	227	8%
KAVERI SEED COMPANY	272	293	7%
VELJAN DENISON	375	399	6%
SIKA INTERPLANT	70	74	5%
RISHI LAZER CUTTING	52	55	5%
SUKHJIT STARCH	169	177	4%
VXL INSTRUMENTS	32	33	3%
FLUIDOMAT	29	30	3%
INDAGE VINTNERS	52	53	2%

-->OUT OF THE RED COLOURED ,ONLY 5 SCRIPS ARE CURRENTLY TRADING MORE THAN 10% BELOW THE RECOMMENDED PRICE

OTHER THAN THE ABOVE MENTIONED SCRIPS TWO COMPANIES ARE RECOMMENDED TO AVOID - BECKONS INDUSTRIES AND FCS SOFTWARE



-->I AM RECEIVING LOT OF QUERIES WHETHER WE HAVE ANY PAID SERVICE . IN THIS REGARD I WOULD LIKE TO REITERATE THAT I AM NOT RUNNING ANY PAID SERVICE AND IT IS ONLY AN EFFORT TO HELP RETAIL INVESTORS .EXPECTING YOUR PARTICIPATION AND PRAYERS AHEAD.